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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Shawn said:
Guys... she doesn't look the best and is weakening because she has been stuck in one spot for a long time. She can easily organize when she gets on the move again, but I do think we saw Dorian peak already, and we likely won't have a Category 5 off the GA/SC/NC coasts.
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Saw a tweet from Ryan yesterday that stated the water is only about 6-10' where it has been stalled, stating there was not cooler water to upwell..... of course sitting as long as it has it had to weaken at some point but just thought that was interesting. Also to your point in the other post about strengthening, yeah it has peaked big time but also as you mentioned once it gets moving no reason it can't regain some strength. It's not like being over land and disrupting the core.
 
Shawn said:
Still seeing some signs that the storm will continue to grow, with yet another larger eyewall and wind field expanding on it's way up the coast. That throws a monkey wrench into a lot of forecasts in regards to impacts, especially on the Carolina coasts.
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Yeah if the eye is 75 miles across the center can be 30 miles offshore and the eyewall still get 40 miles inland.
 
Shawn said:
Anywhere between just South of Myrtle Beach and the NC coast is still in the crosshairs for a landfall imo.
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I think the coastlines of SC/NC see some pretty bad conditions. If he does make landfall and moves inland 15 or so miles that puts me roughly 60 Mike's to his northwest when he is over morehead city.

Gonna boil down to exact track and wind distribution as to what kind of winds I can get. Models putting out gusts to 70+ but I am very skeptical of those maps.
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah if the eye is 75 miles across the center can be 30 miles offshore and the eyewall still get 40 miles inland.
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Just heard a TWC met on the radio say that TS force winds only extend out 45 miles and then followed that up with, that the radius you want to be looking at as it approaches the coast (and he was speaking specifically for NC) as if that not going to change. I wonder sometimes if they don't understand or pay attention or if they think the average listener doesn't understand so that think why bother. I mean if I didn't know better just by what he said I would think if I'm 50 miles from the center I've got no worries.....sheesh
 
Shaggy said:
I think the coastlines of SC/NC see some pretty bad conditions. If he does make landfall and moves inland 15 or so miles that puts me roughly 60 Mike's to his northwest when he is over morehead city.

Gonna boil down to exact track and wind distribution as to what kind of winds I can get. Models putting out gusts to 70+ but I am very skeptical of those maps.
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Some of those wind maps, especially from the Euro with expanding tropical cyclones tend to be over done well inland in most cases. Still could likely be quite breezy regardless.
 
metwannabe said:
Just heard a TWC met on the radio say that TS force winds only extend out 45 miles and then followed that up with, that the radius you want to be looking at as it approaches the coast (and he was speaking specifically for NC) as if that not going to change. I wonder sometimes if they don't understand or pay attention or if they think the average listener doesn't understand so that think why bother. I mean if I didn't know better just by what he said I would think if I'm 50 miles from the center I've got no worries.....sheesh
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Hurricane force winds extend 45 miles, ts winds 160 miles
 
It definitely has started moving, the eye is the farthest it's been north of the Grand Bahama Is. yet..
 
Looks like slow movement just like the NHC track shows. Kinda of a boring day.

Edit: wow, 2 pages of replies between when I wrote and posted this! If nothing maybe we'll be able to start looking more into the timing of things.
 
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Shawn said:
Some of those wind maps, especially from the Euro with expanding tropical cyclones tend to be over done well inland in most cases. Still could likely be quite breezy regardless.
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It has a lot to do with how well we mix down the 850/925 MB winds.....if there is dry air moving in we get bigger winds on the west side ( like in Matthew and Irene ), also the track as obviously the closer to the center you are the closer to the ground those winds are and are easier to mix down.....if the center takes the ICON/GFS track then I think gust to 60-75 east of I-95 are doable with 60 along I-95 and the 75 closer to Hwy 17...east of Hwy 17 everyone should get solid hurricane gust on just about any of the modeled tracks.....
 
Ser Pounce said:
Looks like slow movement just like the NHC track shows. Kinda of a boring day.
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Respectfully disagree with this.... maybe from a sensible weather aspect but the fact that it is finally moving, get to compare model points and all models should have a better handle on the trough/ridge today so track guidance should become more certain I don't think it is. It's almost like Saturday's on the PGA, it's moving day
 
Henry2326 said:
I think you and I just provided words and visuals to the same thing... :)
Great minds think alike....

The HWRF says it should be moving by noon today. Any slower and well....you know the drill
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What is the minimum mph considered to be enough to meet the "moving" criteria?

Is there a certain location that it needs to be at by a certain time to make everything work with the various influences that the models are using?
 
SC_Wildcat said:
Yeah when the media pretty much gave the collective ok many quit paying attention from what I've seen locally.
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I agree with this. Here in CHS I don't know anyone leaving and the sentiment is there will be beach erosion and flooding downtown, but that is about it. The storm isn't even coming up in conversation much. It was quiet for sure around town yesterday but I think most prepared earlier in the weekend. I was at Harris Teeter near Folly Beach and in Mt Pleasant yesterday as well as Target. Few shoppers and plenty of supplies.

Channel 2 this morning is showing maps that depict the probability of TS and Hurricane winds. They are praising the Euro and showing the storm will be well offshore but the wind field will expand. Even so, they've shown graphics with a 30% chance of hurricane force winds up to 80 MPH on the immediate coast/beaches only with scattered power outages a "possibility" and 4-7 feet of max storm surge in worst case scenario.

TBH, at least they are probably being realistic in the forecast if it holds, but if it changes there is going to be a mad dash for the exits. I'd say cautious optimism is appropriate at the moment for here.
 
SCWXGuy said:
I agree with this. Here in CHS I don't know anyone leaving and the sentiment is there will be beach erosion and flooding downtown, but that is about it. The storm isn't even coming up in conversation much. It was quiet for sure around town yesterday but I think most prepared earlier in the weekend. I was at Harris Teeter near Folly Beach and in Mt Pleasant yesterday as well as Target. Few shoppers and plenty of supplies.

Channel 2 this morning is showing maps that depict the probability of TS and Hurricane winds. They are praising the Euro and showing the storm will be well offshore but the wind field will expand. Even so, they've shown graphics with a 30% chance of hurricane force winds up to 80 MPH on the immediate coast/beaches only with scattered power outages a "possibility" and 4-7 feet of max storm surge in worst case scenario.

TBH, at least they are probably being realistic in the forecast if it holds, but if it changes there is going to be a mad dash for the exits.
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Just insane,,,,,
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
I think the people down here in the CHS area are taking this lightly... Maybe it won't be bad here?
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That is the current sentiment from the CHS media and as you are also observing the same I am here. I am choosing to remain at this time as well but all preparations are done and I'm tracking this hourly and prepared to leave at moments notice if necessary.
 
snowlover91 said:
No words.
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So please do not think I'm sick in the head, but do we have a separate thread or do we need a separate thread for damage reports/ground observations such as this. This is going to be a historic hurricane in more ways than one.
 
SCWXGuy said:
That is the current sentiment from the CHS media and as you are also observing the same I am here. I am choosing to remain at this time as well but all preparations are done and I'm tracking this hourly and prepared to leave at moments notice if necessary.
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I live down here on the intercoastal (Wadamalaw R), near Meggett/Yonges Island area... Worried about surge here. Just had a new dock built too.
 
Breslau said:
What is the minimum mph considered to be enough to meet the "moving" criteria?

Is there a certain location that it needs to be at by a certain time to make everything work with the various influences that the models are using?
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By noon HWRF has it at 948 pressure and directly north of the island. If it pulls west, well you know....
 
Never bet against significant weakening of a strong storm when there is a long period of very slow movement due to
the cooling of the ocean. Look on this image how much cooling occurred at/near Grand Bahama, down to only 22 C, which is only 72 F after being near 30 C or 86 F before the storm! Strong hurricanes are so strong because there is an enormous amount of energy that is converted from the potential energy of very warm water to the wind energy of storms. Conservation of energy principle means that the gains in energy in one entity (storm) are met with a reduction in energy in the entity from where the energy is coming (warm water). So, the water over which it travels has to cool. Check out the image below. The coolest color (shade of green) is actually way down into the 20-21 C (68-70 F) range (6th shade of green) near and just south of Grand Bahama Island. Also, note that the first green shade extends a good 75 or so miles north, which is where the 26 C (79 F) isotherm reaches. So, tremendous cooling has occurred! Hopefully he won’t restrengthen much as he gets out of the cooler waters to the north though he may some once this weakening bottoms out:
29D32466-F208-4983-9D8D-B1954A66361F.png
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Not looking good for the NC coast. It could ride up the entire coastline.
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Yeah there are fewer members that miss the coast entirely on the 06z eps, let's see how he moves today and what if any effect that will have on later model output.
 
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