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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
At the rate the hrrr is going we will be in the eyewall
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
I believe that tweeter is getting Green Turtle Cay School mixed up with Great Abaco Primary School.
That school that Josh was actually at has 25 feet elevation.
Of course, his last tweet was about the wind being so strong that it was peeling off boarding and them having to leave and I think there's absolutely nothing coming from that area, so there's that.
That school that Josh was actually at has 25 feet elevation.
Of course, his last tweet was about the wind being so strong that it was peeling off boarding and them having to leave and I think there's absolutely nothing coming from that area, so there's that.
ok, so models have not done the greatest job with this hurricane we all know that....BUT....I must say, the EURO nailed the crap out of this stall. I thought it was silly and wrong, well hell....I was wrong.
pcbjr
Member
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DORIAN REMAINS STATIONARY AND CONTINUES TO
THRASH GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
T
pcbjr
Member
That's 2 of us, brother ...
Downeastnc
Member
If you pause this video the sign says Central Abaco Primary School, which is at 25ish ft like you said....the hill behind the school goes up to almost 60 ft according to Google earth
Nam is fast and NE this run, may go safely east of everything
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Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Downeastnc
Member
Downeastnc
Member
NAM much flatter with the ridge nosing in from the west.....not saying it means its gonna hit but with it also being faster it might get a bit closer than the 18Z or at least it should....but it is gonna miss already even with ILM with the center east of Savannah at hr 51
dsaur
Member
A thousand little sleet pellets, lol. The longer this thing lolly gags around the more the levels and winds change, and this thing could start heading back to the Namib soon. Would not have liked hauling gold in a galleon.as do all of us here ...
Downeastnc
Member
NAM is well offshore at hr 69 even further than the last run....
Fwiw the 3k NAM is a little slower and closer to the coast...
I wish it were a credible tropical model, but maybe it is an indicator of favorable (more offshore) trends continuing. We can only hope. Meanwhile, Dorian is still not budging. Fascinating that these storms can remain stationary for so long!
Good 'ol 3k NAM
Jessy89
Member
Yes I agree tired of the heat. And Hurricanes are dangerous and devastating. Winter weather is fun to track and fun to play in
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Brent
Member
Yeah i really didn't believe the stall would be so long honestly
Nomanslandva
Member
ICON is west of prior run after about hour 54. East Earlier. So the recurve is less sharp and maybe how close to FL early has no real influence on OBX impacts later?
Downeastnc
Member
ICON still right over Emerald Isle into the Pamlico Sound...it has hurricane force gust coming onshore between SAV and Charleston and all the way up the SC coastal areas as well....
SC coast....not really familiar with how those places do in this setup though but I would think at least the immediate coast would see some big gust
SC coast....not really familiar with how those places do in this setup though but I would think at least the immediate coast would see some big gust
Notice in the bottom image and most current that the WAR is building west, should get some movement later tonight or in the morning, finally
Cary_Snow95
Member
Trough on gfs continues to trend weaker
Ever so slight but it is a little flatter, subtle changes at H5 can make all the difference in the world with sensible weather
Downeastnc
Member
GFS looks like landfall at ILM hr 69 second landfall MHX HR 75, pretty much same as last run
Trough weaker, more ridging over top, results touch slower and little closer to SC coast.... not moving NE yet either.
Might slam Wilmington this run
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Might slam Wilmington this run
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Looks like it just misses but it was close
Cary_Snow95
Member
WAR is trending stronger with each run
what a crazy storm,
I don't remember a hurricane doing this for almost 24 hours now.
I don't remember a hurricane doing this for almost 24 hours now.
Downeastnc
Member
Nope at least one legit landfall, ILM is close depends on how big the center is....but yeah it cant get any closer to a miss than that....
EYE IS TIGHTENING UP
THIS IS FROM 0127Z
THIS IS 0352Z
THIS IS FROM 0127Z
THIS IS 0352Z
Downeastnc
Member
Wonder what the NHC is going to do intensity wise, not finding much more than Cat 1/2 winds at the surface.....they have it at 130 mph plane finding 85knts at surface in eyewall....
Current steering. Had to change levels since recon says we have a 950mb hurricane
If ridge continues to build could this thing be push west.
Brent
Member
like I was noting earlier, it seems like the weaker solutions are more west so it makes you wonder especially given the significant weakening that has happened today
the only thing I'm pretty sure if is it won't make the Gulf lol, anything else is still fair game
Stormsfury
Member
Winds along the coast would be absolutely brutal. Winds back into Berkeley and Dorchester Counties would have some reduction but not a whole hell of a lot. That's a very grim output from the Icon