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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

CMC slightly east than everyone else from my eye....bouncing off and on shore, eye running on the coast in full destruction mode. Coming in at GFS and Navgem point. Looks similar to 06z Navgem.
 
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It all has to do with the speed of Dorian slow speed and the war breaks due turning north sooner faster speed and turns north later
 
Considering how models always underestimate the strength of highs to the ne, I'm expecting to see flooding here, rather than a near miss. I'm going to sand bag my underground lair, and get the moles into some booties so they don't track mud. A labor day storm reminds me of how the one in the 35 ....it was described as having sand grains hitting each other in the 185 mph wind and sparking. That just blows my mind. The air full of sparking sand. I'm pretty sure Ga red clay won't spark, but I don't want to ever find out.
 
Considering many ensembles members are taking this thing very close before out to sea, we can hope the hurricane misses.
 
Shawn said:
Considering many ensembles members are taking this thing very close before out to sea, we can hope the hurricane misses.
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Alot of the ensemble members on the euro go ots if the storm is really stronger must be because of the weakness
 
Shaggy said:
These models are getting more and more data from balloons and recon too so at what point do they really start honing in on a consensus that can be trusted?
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What level of accuracy on landfall is acceptable to you?
 
Brent said:
UKMET Is really terrible this season it was horrible with Barry too

I know people say its good but I'm trying to remember when cause all I remember are fails
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This shift was so predictable. The UKMET is overrated due to its large leftward bias. It did well with Irma, but even a broken clock gets things right once in a while and the Euro was pretty close to it....so ,it wasn't on its own. The one good thing is that when it is on the far left of the consensus, one knows with high confidence that those tracks will end up too far left. I bet the next one will be left of this run.
 
The 12Z GEFS has the highest agreement yet by far with a track going up the FL peninsula and then just inland or near the SE coast.
 
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