Increased heights vs last run north of this storm, which has nudged it a bit south
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Snowflowxxl
Member
Starting to turn NW at 48
Wow the real GFS is much closer to FL.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
:facepalm:
0z legacy:
12z legacy:
0z legacy:
12z legacy:
More ridging (WAR) trying to move west from the Atlantic vs last run, 588 and 591 dm a little bit more west at hour 60 
Snowflowxxl
Member
I do not see this ending well for the SC coast
Cadi40
Member
I have a feeling the models are going to shift westward a little more closer to Florida then more inland and OTS.
The Legacy may hit northern FL.
Cadi40
Member
Yes but there’s way too many moving parts to just have faith in climo.
pcbjr
Member
Lunch just got cancelled ...
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The window was still open for OTS at this point last night but the ridging building back in closed it. So far its open, but it looks similar to the 0z and it closed in the next few frames.
I'm thinking the trend goes a little west today with the models. Bad news for everybody on the Atlantic coast from basically Vero Beach to Hatteras. I'm not sure if this has been discussed much, but a slow moving Cat 4 or 5 hurricane crawling along the coast has got to be awful for beach erosion, storm surge, and coastal flooding with the tides.
FV3 is gonna be close, here comes the trough
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
If anyone has been around these parts any length of time, especially in the winter, the Atlantic storms always trend west and northwest. It’s climo.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Legacy looks like an incoming for Charleston now at 96.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The high clearly stronger at 12Z, giving the nudge South! Should result in a more W/NW track!
Never say never in weatherYeah this thing isn't coming back west.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think the only reason I said what I did with that is because I felt someone had to say the crazy thing. This tweet puts things in perspective.
Lol nope
GeorgiaGirl
Member
12z actually ends up slightly east of the 0z but it still most certainly goes against all of the hurricane models shifting east here. It's on the western side of it.
Bad run for the Carolina coasts.
Bad run for the Carolina coasts.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Wouldn’t surprise me a bit either. Can’t stop and turn these big storms on a dime.
Meanwhile...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Every run of the GFS, H5 changes dramatically.
Two things to watch.
How fast the WAR strengthens and if the trough slows down or weakens. Just a note, this is the time frame that sucks us in during winter events only to pull the football.
How fast the WAR strengthens and if the trough slows down or weakens. Just a note, this is the time frame that sucks us in during winter events only to pull the football.
This storm is a real nailbiter
SC under state of emergency
I still think that a worst case would be a major cane slowly crawling up the East Coast, not so far inland to weaken too fast or lose the Gulf Stream fuel, and not far enough out to sea to prevent chaos and coastal destruction.
Hr 54 CMC brings landfall at Cape Canaveral
Henry2326
Member
If it was left biased yesterday, no one discounted it as it went out to sea....
It corrected and may have even overcorrected for all I know. But it had been way west into the GOM when others were over FL. Biased doesn't mean every run is too far left, just the average and especially when it is left on its own. I've been observing this for many storms the last few years.
CMC landfall SE GA
