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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Looks like the NOAA plane didn't get far outside the center before turning around to head back in. I wonder if they're either about to fly back or want to get a definite reading from the N eyewall where they've been finding cat 5 FL winds.
 
Yeah this thing isn't coming back west.
05L_tracks_latest.png
 
Snowflowxxl said:
NAM puts it in park off the FL coast for like 30 hours
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just for the sake of argument, if ... if ... that were to happen, every model run for the last 10 days could be tossed ... because if ... if ... that were to happen, the entire dynamic set up (troughs, ridges, steering currents, SST due to upwelling ...) would have changed considerably ...
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah this thing isn't coming back west.
05L_tracks_latest.png
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Why? Because the models say so now? The same ones that had it going into the Gulf a couple of days ago? You think they are right now, though, this far out? I don't get how people can forget how we have seen the models do this before with the track, going from one extreme to the next, and it end up adjusting more the closer we get to the middle. Way too premature to say it is going out to sea.
 
The trend is quite clear over the last couple of days. Nothing is set in stone with tropical cyclones, but you would think that as we close in, models are going to be more apt to get the general environmental setup right. Confidence increases in that idea as we see the various model suites converge in general consensus with track direction. Certainly a few miles here or there make a major difference, and such small details can't be defined exactly at this point.

But I think what we can start to agree on is that the probability of Dorian riding up the east cost of FL, remaining offshore and eventually recurving has gone up significantly over the last two days. How close it gets to some point along the SE coast is still up in the air.
 
Dorian keeps chugging west for much longer and all these model runs can head out the door, I know the stall wasn't forecast for a while but pretty much all the hurricane models there have a NE turn beginning soon.

I'd most certainly prefer OTS outside the islands but the way this has been going, I have to feel there's a 3rd trick coming and even 50-75 miles of difference will be major implications.
 
Another Import piece of the puzzle will be the evolution of the jet at 250mb. As the storm moves towards the coast, the jet's job will be to pull the storm further Inland or OTS. For the storm to go inland the jet needs to dig SE. The stronger the farther Inland the storm will get.
Heres the 00z, you notice It strongly dig positive. Stronger than 06z which is why Dorian moves further inland.
00z
00z.png
06z
6z.png
 
Rain Cold said:
The trend is quite clear over the last couple of days. Nothing is set in stone with tropical cyclones, but you would think that as we close in, models are going to be more apt to get the general environmental setup right. Confidence increases in that idea as we see the various model suites converge in general consensus with track direction. Certainly a few miles here or there make a major difference, and such small details can't be defined exactly at this point.

But I think what we can start to agree on is that the probability of Dorian riding up the east cost of FL, remaining offshore and eventually recurving has gone up significantly over the last two days. How close it gets to some point along the SE coast is still up in the air.
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Agreed.... and for those saying it's not slowing down, well it is. This advisory down to 8 mph, that ain't fast and honestly it looks slower

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Ollie Williams said:
Another Import piece of the puzzle will be the evolution of the jet at 250mb. As the storm moves towards the coast, the jet's job will be to pull the storm further Inland or OTS. For the storm to go inland the jet needs to dig SE. The stronger the farther Inland the storm will get.
Heres the 00z, you notice It strongly dig positive. Stronger than 06z which is why Dorian moves further inland.
00z
View attachment 22600
06z
View attachment 22599
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This analysis and the one you did on the high to his east are key for us here in eastern NC. Angle of approach is everything with this setup. Is it NNE just inland and up heough the state or ENE staying 50 miles offshore. Very key components that are highlighted by these 2 features you've brought up.
 
Icon actually takes it SW a bit lol, close to landfall in southern FL, let’s see what the trough does to it
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why? Because the models say so now? The same ones that had it going into the Gulf a couple of days ago? You think they are right now, though, this far out? I don't get how people can forget how we have seen the models do this before with the track, going from one extreme to the next, and it end up adjusting more the closer we get to the middle. Way too premature to say it is going out to sea.
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Brick, models have more skill the closer they get. So saying they had it in the gulf a coupe days ago is completely different.
 
And here we go again. Even on the current NHC track, it would be 5 days until it gets close to landfall. A long way to go until then to see if it hits or misses to the east. Or it could change and still go west like the Icon is showing now.
 
I'm a bit surprised the NHC shifted the forecast line as much off shore of SC as they did for the 11am update. I was expecting a subtle adjustment or not much change. Well aware it's very much an educated guess still.

I went out to make a few final trips to the store and fill the last of my gas cans and it is very orderly here in central Mt Pleasant near the IOP connector. People are in good spirits and seems everyone is well aware of the storm.

Hopefully this rain moves out as we want to go to the beach again before the storm. It may get bad erosion even with an offshore track. Matthew and Irma made a big mess of IOP and it took months to restore the beaches both times. At least they really built up the dune this last time.
 
pcbjr said:
just for the sake of argument, if ... if ... that were to happen, every model run for the last 10 days could be tossed ... because if ... if ... that were to happen, the entire dynamic set up (troughs, ridges, steering currents, SST due to upwelling ...) would have changed considerably ...
Click to expand...

Last night when I was watching him, he was moving 14 mph for 6 hours (0.20 long/hr)(faster than fcast) and I was starting to get a little more concerned for the stall happening further west and thus maybe put FL back in danger. However, the really good news is that he has slowed considerably since and has moved only .13 long/hr the last 3 hours/9 mph). The slower it moves, the further east will be the expected stall and the less threat to FL.
Another thing to note is that the stall, even with it near the Gulf stream, may still cool the SSTs enough to weaken him. Keep in mind that cooling from churning is not just around the center. At some point, the overall SSTs in and near the storm cooling should help weaken him some while stalled. Then once he starts moving again, he may restrengthen some. My guess is that the peak strength will be today or tomorrow. The NHC prog sort of reflects this.
 
GaWx said:
Last night when I was watching him, he was moving 14 mph for 6 hours (0.20 long/hr)(faster than fcast) and I was starting to get a little more concerned for the stall happening further west and thus maybe put FL back in danger. However, the really good news is that he has slowed considerably since and has moved only .13 long/hr the last 3 hours/9 mph). The slower it moves, the further east will be the expected stall and the less threat to FL.
Another thing to note is that the stall, even with it near the Gulf stream, may still cool the SSTs enough to weaken him. Keep in mind that cooling from churning is not just around the center. At some point, the overall SSTs in and near the storm cooling should help weaken him some while stalled. Then once he starts moving again, he may restrengthen some. My guess is that the peak strength will be today or tomorrow. The NHC prog sort of reflects this.
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Thanks Larry! My point was a very big "if ... if" and not to suggest a 30 hour stall is in the cards ...

... anymore than I would suggest this is a "solution" ...
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh72-72.gificon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh99-99.gificon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh111-111.gif
 
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