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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

ForsythSnow said:
That's not good as a whole for Florida. With the current model idea that would just devastate the entire state excluding the panhandle if it gets to redevelop in the gulf.
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Unless it makes landfall a second time in the panhandle.
 
Brick Tamland said:
That is true. I think based on the models at this moment the most likely outcome is landfall in FL. After that there is still the question of does it go west into the Gulf, or does it curve NE?
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You can actually get both solutions. The bigger question would be:
Does it go into the gulf? If so, then when/ how sharp and how soon is the curve (if at all) to the NE? If it stays on land in Florida, how far does it go before going back onto water, if at all? If that's the case, would it go OTS afterwards or curve up into the Carolinas?
 
If this was posted earlier, sorry, but still a lot of eps members keep this offshore..... some into the GOM too, almost two camps

1567167945202.png
 
115127_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
7BC2E772-8160-432A-B1DF-3A494AFBAA26.png***Track from Tuesday***
It’s remarkable how little the landfall area has changed in 3 days!
 
metwannabe said:
If this was posted earlier, sorry, but still a lot of eps members keep this offshore..... some into the GOM too, almost two camps

View attachment 22430
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Yeah so they split the difference.....one camp weaker ridge the other stronger, truth lies in the middle I suppose.....or it could be the one extreme of the other, NHC folks cant catch a break these last few years track wise....obviously for us up here we need to be most concerned for a Floyd type track thats about the only way I see NC seeing actual hurricane conditions out of this one. A long slow inland track will be hell though lots of flooding, probably a decent number of tornados on the NE side etc.....this is all after the initial impact in Florida of a Cat 3/4, safe to say if the current track pans out this is the last time we track a storm named Dorian.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Four days out from possible landfall, and there are still really three different scenarios on the table with the models - curve and out to sea, landfall in FL and then curve NE, or landfall in FL and then into the Gulf before going NE. Madness.
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In other words, Floridians need to prepare for options 2 and 3 at least. I would definitely say that those in South Florida have a better than even chance of impacts from the storm at this point.

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BHS1975 said:
Would more cycles expand the wind field?


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Yes, the net effect over time of eyewall replacement cycles is lateral expansion of a TC's warm core and wind field & EWRC frequency is partially a function of both internal TC structure and background relative humidity (among other things). Both of these parameters seem conducive imo for more frequent eyewall replacement cycles going forward but we'll see.
 
767
URNT15 KNHC 301257
AF302 1805A DORIAN HDOB 26 20190830
124730 2418N 06940W 6969 02949 9771 +142 +059 026037 040 077 004 00
124800 2419N 06941W 6973 02952 9780 +140 +060 032048 051 079 004 03
124830 2421N 06941W 6954 02974 9786 +133 +061 036050 053 079 004 03
124900 2421N 06939W 6972 02942 9757 +151 +062 041034 044 /// /// 03
124930 2419N 06938W 6963 02946 9729 +171 +063 047023 026 045 003 00
125000 2418N 06937W 6966 02940 9729 +167 +064 065007 020 038 004 00
125030 2417N 06935W 6979 02923 9725 +170 +065 210009 015 037 002 00
125100 2415N 06934W 6943 02971 9702 +197 +064 192024 027 036 002 03
125130 2414N 06932W 6969 02942 9679 +220 +065 221025 033 032 004 03
125200 2413N 06931W 6964 02948 9689 +216 +065 221035 041 039 002 00
125230 2412N 06929W 6963 02963 9699 +215 +066 226036 042 054 003 03
125300 2411N 06928W 6964 02966 9740 +184 +067 234057 060 072 008 03
125330 2410N 06926W 6982 02971 9796 +152 +069 230069 073 086 009 00
125400 2409N 06925W 6956 03021 9869 +107 +071 238075 077 086 009 00
125430 2407N 06924W 6964 03037 9924 +085 +072 245082 082 083 023 00
125500 2406N 06922W 6983 03037 9963 +075 +070 233076 083 083 016 00
125530 2405N 06921W 6957 03086 9983 +075 +064 227070 073 082 017 00
125600 2403N 06920W 6969 03089 0010 +071 +056 228069 073 077 016 00
125630 2402N 06918W 6961 03109 0014 +076 +051 228063 066 071 009 00
125700 2402N 06918W 6961 03109 0036 +069 +048 230061 070 071 009 00
$$
;
Latest recon data shows the pressure down to 967.9 mb.
 
Probably an ignorant question, but how does the strength of a hurricane impact the path it takes? I understand that steering currents play a major role ... areas of higher pressures as well as presence of fronts, etc. I suppose I am just wondering if a stronger cane would be more likely to bully its environment so to speak than a weaker hurricane? If so, would the models account for that? I hope what I am asking makes sense!

Thank you to the many members here that share their expertise ... I enjoy keeping up all year!
 
k0skinne said:
Probably an ignorant question, but how does the strength of a hurricane impact the path it takes? I understand that steering currents play a major role ... areas of higher pressures as well as presence of fronts, etc. I suppose I am just wondering if a stronger cane would be more likely to bully its environment so to speak than a weaker hurricane? If so, would the models account for that? I hope what I am asking makes sense!

Thank you to the many members here that share their expertise ... I enjoy keeping up all year!
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Stronger canes have a tendency to pull poleward
 
Last 4 runs of the EPS.

When looking at this sure looks like Port St. Lucie to Melbourne looks to be the target. Also, seems like more members wanting to hug the coast as it moves north. Nothing good from this for FL/GA/SC coast.
EPSmembertrend.gif
 
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Webberweather53 said:
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I can see this as 1 of 2 things:
Either it stays weaker than what models like the HWRF or HMON are showing, or it becomes a monster when closing in on Florida. Can't these storms change structure and slow their cycles? I feel like this is what happened back with Irma and maybe Maria. Just ERC after ERC until it became a monster. Only difference here is that the storm seems to not be as symmetrical, so it probably won't be a strong cat 5 at peak, but rather a strong 4 or low 5 at extreme worst.
 
Thought it was interesting the slight similarities with Matthew.

Matthew

matthew.png

Dorian

ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
The eye is now opening for the first time on visible satellite.
goes16_vis_05L_201908301407.jpg
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And it has made up "lost ground" to the west, yesterday I mentioned 25N, 70W as a point of reference b/c ofc track and most modeling had it passing right over that point.... might actually go south of that now. Dang it, was hoping for slower which meant ots
 
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