Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[NCSNOW]

Need to make sure the ull to its west is moving sw as modeled, forecasted. Any drag or delay will cause Dorian to get futher north than modeled, before HP turns it back west sw.
Also it will loose spacing and catch some shear from ull. So far models have them spaced just enough, so shear from ull want be an issue.

 

[NWTENN]

For the love of God yall, is "Dorian" a male or female name?

 

[ncskywarn]

For the love of God yall, is "Dorian" a male or female name?

Looks like Male Barry was the B Storm lol

 

[deltadog03]

For the love of God yall, is "Dorian" a male or female name?

I think Male...might be wrong

 

[accu35]

For the love of God yall, is "Dorian" a male or female name?

Lol, most are saying "She"

 

[ncskywarn]

Lol, most are saying "She"

I know I have been lol

 

[Arcc]

ICON is a good 24 hours slower then and 50-75 North of 18Z. It's still well East of the peninsula and East of Lake Okeechobee as opposed to East of Miami on the 18Z.

Looks faster than 18z at 63hrs.

As well as 81hrs.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Yea it is a good bit faster and north this run.

 

[deltadog03]

ICON prob heading toward southern FL

 

[Snowflowxxl]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

For the love of God yall, is "Dorian" a male or female name?

How dare we assume the gender of this cane

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Starts drifting SW hard after that shot at 93

 

[accu35]

Icon moving SW

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah the ICON started slowly drifting southwest, I assume because of the ridging?

 

[Arcc]

Starts drifting SW hard after that shot at 93

Trough over the northern US is weaker and ridge is stronger. ICON is farther north, but will probably end up farther west before the hook.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Actually slower but may ultimately end up at the same place as 18Z it's moving SW between hours 105and 120.

It's definitely not slower

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Yeah the ICON started slowly drifting southwest, I assume because of the ridging?

I think from the effects of that strengthen low pressure in the southwest gulf.

 

[Arcc]

It's definitely not slower

Yep a tick faster.

 

[Shawn]

For the love of God yall, is "Dorian" a male or female name?

It's a unisex name, but from my understanding from all that Greek stuff, it stems from "Deloras" or something like that. I will go with a she.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Dorian shall drown all of Florida according to the ICON!

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

THIS IS THE 00Z ICON
THERE IS A GOOD TICK SW

 

[Shawn]

Nevermind, it turns out I was wrong about Deloras.. but it ends up being a pretty cool name for this storm versus a generic name:

Dorian /ˈdɔːriən/ is a unisex given name of Greek origin. In Greek the meaning of the name Dorian is: Of Doris, a district of Greece; or of Doros, a legendary Greek hero. Doros was the son of Hellen of Sparta (who was the daughter of Zeus and Leda). Doros was the founder of the Dorian tribe, and the most likely origin of Doros' name was the Greek word "doron", meaning "gift". The Dorians were an obscure, ancient Hellenic tribe that were supposed to have existed in the north-eastern regions of Greece, ancient Macedonia and Epirus.
Another possible origin of the name Dorian, is from the Greek "Dorios", meaning 'child of the sea' .[1]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Not Slower? The 1st image is the 00Z Icon at hour 93 The 2nd Image is the 18Z ICON at hour 120View attachment 22272View attachment 22271

To compare apples to apples you need to compare the 0Z run at hour 114 to hour 18Z hour 120 if you want an apples to apples comparison.

 

[Brent]

Dorian is definitely male lol if genders still exist in 2019 ?

Oh and the pressure is up 7 mb on that recon pass dry air really cutting into it atm

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Not Slower? The 1st image is the 00Z Icon at hour 93 The 2nd Image is the 18Z ICON at hour 120View attachment 22272View attachment 22271

 

[Arcc]

Not Slower? The 1st image is the 00Z Icon at hour 93 The 2nd Image is the 18Z ICON at hour 120View attachment 22272View attachment 22271

The top image is valid at 21z Sunday and the bottom is 18z Monday. That shows the 0z is almost a full day faster ahead of 18z.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

ICON prob heading toward southern FL

YES IT RIDES THE ENTIRE STATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A HURRICANE

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Dorian is 7 MB stronger on this GFS run compared to 18z at 78 so far.

 

[GaWx]

0Z GFS probably headed for a N FL hit.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

>30% chance of rapid intensification on Thursday on the models. We could be looking at something completely different tomorrow night.

 

[ncskywarn]

Interesting run ICON tracks SW off the peninsula from hour 105 to 120. Then turns West and makes landfall North of Miami and as soon as it makers landfall it take an immediate sharp right turn moves NNW up the peninsula.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Interesting run ICON tracks SW off the peninsula from hour 105 to 120. Then turns West and makes landfall North of Miami and as soon as it makers landfall it take an immediate sharp right turn moves NNW up the peninsula.

Effects from trough kicking in.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

31% chance on the models it’s a CAT 4 early as Friday per Dr. Masters.

 

[Brent]

GFS is still gonna be north of the Euro by a good bit actually it looks like it shifted north

 

[GaWx]

0Z gfs going to hit GA hard it appears. Ouch.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Is this run about to try for the rare GA landfall or be a just miss?

Edit: nah, North FL it is most likely. Still looks nasty.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

GA/FL border on the GFS?

 

[Brent]

if the Euro doesn't move this is gonna be quite the disagreement at day 4

 

[Shaggy]

0Z GFS probably headed for a N FL hit.

Looks like the center of the ridge is a bit further east at 0z? More north of bermuda.

 

[ncskywarn]

The top image is valid at 21z Sunday and the bottom is 18z Monday. That shows the 0z is almost a full day faster ahead of 18z.

Sorry it's been a long day I got it backwards sorry about that.

I deleted all references to it being slower.