Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[SD]

Yep it wants to solidify its eye

That's crazy. When I saw the eye wall collapse on radar I thought we were going to see this struggle a bit until the overnight. I guess not

Starting to get some lightning in the eyewall too.

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[pcbjr]

If any of us knew what was actually gonna transpire, your first and only name would start with a capital "G".

But it's nice reading everyone's thoughts ... am really appreciating everyone's good nature given the possibilities, as well ...

 

[ForsythSnow]

That's crazy. When I saw the eye wall collapse on radar I thought we were going to see this struggle a bit until the overnight. I guess not

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Just wait for recon to get to the NE quadrant. The north end they were clocking up around 72 knots at the peak unflagged.

 

[Brick Tamland]

All you guests need to sign up and join the conversation, especially those in Florida.

 

[SD]

Looks like the legacy gfs kind of splits the difference between the fv and euro

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[Snowfan]

HMON is stronger through 30 hours.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Legacy has a really bullish track for rainfall.

 

[Brent]

Just wait for recon to get to the NE quadrant. The north end they were clocking up around 72 knots at the peak unflagged.

yeah last night at this time recon barely found a center



then it reformed and well...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Legacy has a really bullish track for rainfall.
View attachment 22234

me and @Tarheel1 get less than half an inch of rain. Book this

 

[GaWx]

Legacy has a really bullish track for rainfall.
View attachment 22234

Holy cow, if that were to verify, Hogtown’s Prairie would be back to a lake and @pcbjr would need a boat to go through it down 441!

 

[pcbjr]

me and @Tarheel1 get less than half an inch of rain. Book this

and no wind and you have internet, power and old Andy G re-runs ... LOL

 

[SimeonNC]

So kind of a dumb question, what's stopping this storm from becoming way stronger than modeled since PR and Hispaniola are no longer factors? That's my biggest fear with Dorian at the moment.

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[Weatherlover92]

In the short term (48hrs<) 18z HMON/HWRF have Dorian stronger (pressure, max winds) than 12z did.

 

[SD]

So kind of a dumb question, what's stopping this storm from becoming way stronger than modeled since PR and Hispaniola are no longer factors? That's my biggest fear with Dorian at the moment.

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Dry air seems to be the big factor right now

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[Arcc]

So kind of a dumb question, what's stopping this storm from becoming way stronger than modeled since PR and Hispaniola are no longer factors? That's my biggest fear with Dorian at the moment.

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Right now dry air, long term nothing modeled. It will become dependant on ERCs.

 

[Ollie Williams]

HMON and HWRF about 30 MB stronger.

 

[Jessy89]

I’m really hugging the euro. You notice that particular model has had not as big of swings. It’s been the most consistent so far.


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[SimeonNC]

Dry air seems to be the big factor right now

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Okay, though that isn't all that calming since even with dry air it managed to intensify so much in a short period of time. Hopefully dry air becomes a bigger and long term hinder for Dorian.

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[ForsythSnow]

I’m really hugging the euro. You notice that particular model has had not as big of swings. It’s been the most consistent so far.


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I mean the ICON has been consistent too... I think the Euro is bound to even adjust some.

 

[Brent]

Okay, though that isn't all that calming since even with dry air it managed to intensify so much in a short period of time. Hopefully dry air becomes a bigger and long term hinder for Dorian.

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yeah with the big ones its usually either dry air or maybe unexpected shear, but usually the ERC's will be the main cause of up and down cycles, the timing can either help or hurt the coast and are impossible to predict

I should mention Michael was sheared and it didn't matter so even shear isn't a guarantee

sometimes(not always) when they get close to the US especially recurving they always get a gulp of dry air but it really just depends

 

[pcbjr]

So kind of a dumb question, what's stopping this storm from becoming way stronger than modeled since PR and Hispaniola are no longer factors? That's my biggest fear with Dorian at the moment.

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Not being flippant (and certainly not a "dumb question") ... Nothing is stopping it from getting stronger, or weakening. It's in a good environment, but it really depends now on what track it takes. Central FL would weaken it, if it crosses and gets into the Gulf; then we'd be left to see what remains and if it shot NW or N; the east coast would weaken it if it ran the entire intracoastal; the Gulf would ramp it if it crossed the 'Glades or south of there ... so bottom line ... there is no bottom line yet ...

 

[CyclonicFury]

68 kt SFMR in the SE quad. It's going to be interesting to see how strong the winds are in the NE quad.

 

[Arcc]

No mincing words, this image shows what Webb has been saying about outflow also within a very deep moisture envelope. This one is a Cat5 landfall threat in South/Central FL.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Brent]

HWRF on Saturday

 

[pcbjr]

No mincing words, this image shows what Webb has been saying about outflow also within a very deep moisture envelope. This one is a Cat5 landfall threat in South/Central FL.

"Like" for the data, not the message ...

 

[Zander98al]

HWRF on Saturday

View attachment 22236

That Looks like a category 4 or 5 ?. Hopefully people will take the threat seriously

 

[Weatherlover92]

18z HMON is back to a strong Cat. 1(borderline Cat. 2) hurricane approaching the East/Central FL coastline at hr 99 after that weird 12z run of weakening it to a TS.

 

[pcbjr]

HWRF on Saturday

View attachment 22236

Brent, can you run that out and post a few more frames? Seems like it might be of some benefit.

 

[Weatherlover92]

That Looks like a category 4 or 5 ?. Hopefully people will take the threat seriously

That's a strong Cat. 5 hurricane assuming the Google knots to mph conversion I did is accurate. Dorian is at 151.5 kts which is roughly 175mph.

 

[Brent]

Brent, can you run that out and post a few more frames? Seems like it might be of some benefit.

I will post as it loads, it takes a bit

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Henry2326]

That GFS run could have easily been a Carolina landfall with subtle changes based on how the coast is shaped and it wanting to go due north and stall. Interesting to see if the members show that or out to sea. I’m favoring the EURO right now tho.

Amen.....thought the same thing. Subtle changes that the models don't handle very well.

 

[Brent]

Could be a 5 here

 

[Henry2326]

That takes your breath away...

 

[Snowfan]

HWRF is down to 918 mb.

 

[Brent]

918 mb would be getting up there on the list

 

[Weatherlover92]

18z HMON has Dorian making landfall between Vero Beach and Palm Bay, FL as a borderline Cat. 1 hurricane.

 

[Webberweather53]

HWRF is down to 918 mb.

Can't wait to see a 700mb cane on the 3km NAM in a few days

 

[ForsythSnow]

HWRF does show a cat 5 approaching Florida. 137 knots is a cat 5 and it peaks at 142.