• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

For a storm that hasn’t formed, all interests should monitor including inland Carolinas.things change.
 
Houston always seems to get flooding issues from any tropical system unfortunately. If it goes there
 
BirdManDoomW said:
For a storm that hasn’t formed, all interests should monitor including inland Carolinas.things change.
Click to expand...
Nope! Your dead wrong! I told you 5 days ago, all the moisture would be nowhere near the Carolinas! Today’s models do exactly that!!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Nope! Your dead wrong! I told you 5 days ago, all the moisture would be nowhere near the Carolinas! Today’s models do exactly that!!
Click to expand...
You are probably right about moisture. We will have impacts though. It'll come in the form of high dewpoints and oppressive heat indexes.
 
ICON is 1 mb stronger and is a bit west than the last run through 90 hours.
 
ICON has it making landfall at the Texas/Louisana border as a Cat 1 hurricane @ 114 hours.
 
GFS is a little stronger and is a bit north of last run through 96 hours.
 
Trends are clear, TX/LA hit, sorry SE, who could use a little rain! ?
 
S
Tarheel1 said:
Trends are clear, TX/LA hit, sorry SE, who could use a little rain! ?
Click to expand...
Still could change a lot lol. Im kindve thinking a landfall will be in LA. But also this system hasnt even made it over water yet. two_atl_5d0.png
 
Not sure I have ever seen a tropical system come from a disturbance on land.
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast
to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a
broad area of low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday.
Environmental and ocean conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the low moves slowly westward over northern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern
U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
12z model runs of various weather models on where/if landfall will be. Didnt post euro becuase 12z isnt out yet. Nam isn't impressive with it. But has landfall of the system near LA/MSScreenshot_20190708-122717_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190708-122732_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190708-122753_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190708-122826_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Maybe the front can shunt the moisture for “ Barry” NE, and give us much needed rain!?
 
What’s interesting is that the euro spits out some anticyclonic movement over the cyclone, which helps out structure, and ventilation
 
Nice excerpt from the local paper this AM, actually providing some explanation for folks ...

Hurricane center forecasters said the mechanics of the would-be Barry are a little unusual, with a trough of low pressure over the U.S. moving south toward the Gulf of Mexico where a broad low pressure area will likely form in a few days.
Typically, systems drift from the Gulf of Mexico toward land. This one could happen in reverse, forming from a so-called mesocscale convective vortex, or MCV. An MCV is a grouping of thunderstorm clusters over land, that can become tropical when they hit water.
Marshall Shepherd, a University of Georgia atmospheric sciences professor, said in a post he wrote for Forbes that computer models are showing the possibility that a couple of old frontal boundaries may meet in the Gulf of Mexico to generate enough energy for something tropical to form.
 
Its hard to forecast where itll go and intensity until it actually gets over the ocean. So the tracks may change. Unlike most tropical storms which are already over the water. But barry is a unique one lol
 
How many of you were on the Texas bandwagon yesterday because I wasn’t? It’s not been 24 hours and you think a undeveloped storm will automatically hit Texas based on a days run. Mississippi is still at play and others which could ultimately bring rains for some on here.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
How many of you were on the Texas bandwagon yesterday because I wasn’t? It’s not been 24 hours and you think a undeveloped storm will automatically hit Texas based on a days run. Mississippi is still at play and others which could ultimately bring rains for some on here.
Click to expand...
It’s going to hit Texas, skip over Wilkes, slam mid Atlantic! Take that to the bird feeder!
 
BirdManDoomW said:
How many of you were on the Texas bandwagon yesterday because I wasn’t? It’s not been 24 hours and you think a undeveloped storm will automatically hit Texas based on a days run. Mississippi is still at play and others which could ultimately bring rains for some on here.
Click to expand...
Some of them were on it at least 5 days ago. They got too much algae bloom going off along the MS coast for a landfall. Sinking albedo promotes heat shielding that pumps the ridge and shunts the storm left. Probably going into southern TX and rain out over Mexico, amigo.
 
  • Like
Reactions: F-5
BirdManDoomW said:
How many of you were on the Texas bandwagon yesterday because I wasn’t? It’s not been 24 hours and you think a undeveloped storm will automatically hit Texas based on a days run. Mississippi is still at play and others which could ultimately bring rains for some on here.
Click to expand...
Read these words:
Nobody in the Carolinas is getting rain from this directly after it hits the Gulf. Said it here and now. See this in 5 days. It'll be right.
 
CMC turns into an Apps runner after flooding New Orleans.
 
JMA is also in the camp of placing a lot on the board with rain.
 
Bold prediction by South-East Weather Center. Louisiana to Florida hit. What degree do they have?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top