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Severe POSS SEVERE WEATHER STARTING 05-17-2019 and BEYOND

My bad for all these posts, anyways
Tornado emergency for leech OK, huge debris ball with this one
 
Worst may have occurred after dark. The flooding and new tornado damages are far from a “bust”. Comparing events rarely work whether it’s tornado outbreaks, snow storms or hurricanes. How many times have people compared storms with Hugo? Or that one over-due ice storm? All we be uniquely different in most cases.
 
Looks like AR and MO are under the gun today. I wouldn't sleep on this.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Areas affected...Western AR and southern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 211457Z - 211630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A pre-frontal squall line will spread eastward and
northeastward into western Arkansas and southern Missouri through
late morning and early afternoon. Destabilization northward in
advance of the line will support a continued threat for a few
tornadoes with embedded circulations.

DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal squall line is moving eastward from
eastern OK toward western AR. As a pronounced upstream shortwave
trough begins to eject northeastward from northwest TX and western
OK, an associated surface cyclone will develop northeastward into
KS. The near-surface layer is still stable into southern MO per
surface observations and a 14z SGF sounding. However, the surface
warm sector will spread northward from AR into MO through the
afternoon, as the environment becomes more supportive of
surface-based convection into MO through the afternoon. Strong
deep-layer south-southwesterly vertical shear will support embedded
bowing segments and/or rotating storms within the convective line
into the afternoon. Given strong low-level shear and a moist
environment, there will continue to be a threat for occasional
tornadoes with embedded circulations in the line, as well as
damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The storms will progress
east of tornado watch 205 in the next 1-2 hours, necessitating a new
tornado watch into AR and MO after 16z.

..Thompson/Hart.. 05/21/2019
 
There's another chance of severe weather in the plains this Thursday.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
More 700mb warmth/EML advection from Mexico, if a supercell can develop than it would likely produce a tornado, I wonder how bad chaser convergence is going to be today
Click to expand...
I do too but we are on our way back to Houston and gonna set up near Shawnee, Ok to stay south of most of the flooding. No way I wanna be in NE OK today with already flooded roadways and potential for training supercells. We already had a lot of encounters yesterday in south-central Kansas
 
Been quite here the last two days. I guess everyone was disappointed with Monday.

Oh, and there were more tornadoes reported yesterday than Monday. The threats that are less hyped seem to have more numerous and severe tornadoes than those that are again.
 
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PDS watch out now.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest and Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorms are expected to affect the
watch area this afternoon and early evening. Any storm that
persists will pose a risk of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles south of Altus OK to 45
miles south southeast of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
 
Part of the watch is in a marginal threat area, and even just a general thunderstorm threat area.
 
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Mesoscale Discussion 0734
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas...Southwest
Missouri...and Northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 222006Z - 222200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes -- a few of which may be strong -- are expected. A tornado
watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows boundary layer cumulus
developing over portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas,
northwest Arkansas, and southwest Missouri, as low-level moisture
advects northward across the region. Surface dew points in the low
70s F are overspreading the region, ahead of a stalled cold front.
Along the front, elevated convection has developed and is moving
parallel to the boundary. With continued diabatic heating and
low-level moisture advection, further destabilization can be
expected, with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg developing by late
afternoon.

Given these thermodynamic conditions, convective initiation is
expected within the next 1-2 hours. Convection along the front may
eventually root into the boundary layer, and additional storms may
develop in the warm sector, particularly in southern parts of the
MCD area. As storms develop, effective bulk shear of 50-55 kt will
help organize the convection into supercell structures. With
effective SRH exceeding 200 m^2/s^2, tornadoes -- a few of which
could be strong -- are possible, along with the threat for large
hail and damaging winds. A tornado watch will likely be issued
within the next hour.

..Karstens/Hart.. 05/22/2019
 
Currently sitting in Moore, OK in position for whatever develops in this PDS watch. This is my last day of chasing, hope it’s a good one.
 
Another PDS watch.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Kansas
Central and Southwest Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the watch
area this afternoon and spread northeastward through the evening.
Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and strong
tornadoes are possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Tulsa OK
to 60 miles east northeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
 
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