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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

Do not have the time to research it, so only gut ... SER will warm the SE Atlantic; just wondering what implications that has for Aug - Oct ... probably not good, but just gut ... back to work and enjoy the heat ... :mad:
 
BTW, the high today was *only* 87*F.

And as expected, not a single drop of rain from the cold front. In fact, much of the day was sunny.
 
pcbjr said:
Do not have the time to research it, so only gut ... SER will warm the SE Atlantic; just wondering what implications that has for Aug - Oct ... probably not good, but just gut ... back to work and enjoy the heat ... :mad:
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I don't know. But, I'm willing to bet it'll warm the Atlantic and gulf and ruin our winter again! Taking all bets now!
 
pcbjr said:
Do not have the time to research it, so only gut ... SER will warm the SE Atlantic; just wondering what implications that has for Aug - Oct ... probably not good, but just gut ... back to work and enjoy the heat ... :mad:
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The Atlantic off the SE coast is already quite warm and this will probably only intensify it. I believe as I've stated many times that the very stubborn SER has been helped by the very warm nearby Atlantic. Although your gut makes sense, I don't know about the tropics per se due to there being so many factors(hopefully the SE US gets a break). Regardless, unfortunately this might mean the SER will continue to stick around through next winter.

Edit: basically what Snowless and Grumpy said
 
SD said:
Hello little friend
440863bb97537af1128cdbc0a7f14d88.jpg


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Deflating ballon sound
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SouthATLwx said:
BTW, the high today was *only* 87*F.

And as expected, not a single drop of rain from the cold front. In fact, much of the day was sunny.
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I'd love a high of "only" 87. Today was 93 here. I may get an 87 on Thu before the shoot hits the fan.
 
GaWx said:
The Atlantic off the SE coast is already quite warm and this will probably only intensify it. I believe as I've stated many times that the very stubborn SER has been helped by the very warm nearby Atlantic. Although your gut makes sense, I don't know about the tropics per se due to there being so many factors(hopefully the SE US gets a break). Regardless, unfortunately this might mean the SER will continue to stick around through next winter.

Edit: basically what Snowless and Grumpy said
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The SER is sticking around forever, isn't it?! :(
 
"Memorial Day
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98."
noooo thanks
 
Perfect weather today. Highs in the low 60s with a nice breeze. Give me 60s and 70s all year long and i would be happy. Screw winter and summer.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I would think short term issues no doubt, top soil drying out affecting grass, crops even increased fire danger potentially. But long term issues, water table, lakes and reservoirs should still be ok for a while. But with no widespread rain in sight and temps approaching a 100 it sure won't take long

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High rock lake is low, went on Friday
 
SD said:
We have been a have not for the last 30 days
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That is dead accurate

.76 in May, good shot of falling short of an inch for the entire month. My centipede already has brown patches and haven't cut it in 2 weeks, feast or famine what's new.

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cd2play said:
This spring/going into summer pattern is eerily similar to 1995.
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The entire eastern seaboard was torching and much of the Plains/SW was experiencing an extreme drought.

Conversely, the Plains is getting buried in water this time and there's been a tight temperature gradient, as parts of the Great Lakes and NE are below average to-date.

It's actually a somewhat weird pattern, given that we're still in an El-Nino.
 
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metwannabe said:
That is dead accurate

.76 in May, good shot of falling short of an inch for the entire month. My centipede already has brown patches and haven't cut it in 2 weeks, feast or famine what's new.

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If the models are right with shunting the ridge off to the SW after the apex of the heat we should start to see much higher pwat air start streaming all the way around the ridge and into our area on the NW flow. I wouldn't be too shocked to see models trend a bit wetter in the day 8-10 period but that is predicated on the ridge shifting SW. Don't sleep on thursday either especially up your way. The euro is dry but the canadian and gfs have a nice nw flow wave and some precip

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SD said:
If the models are right with shunting the ridge off to the SW after the apex of the heat we should start to see much higher pwat air start streaming all the way around the ridge and into our area on the NW flow. I wouldn't be too shocked to see models trend a bit wetter in the day 8-10 period but that is predicated on the ridge shifting SW. Don't sleep on thursday either especially up your way. The euro is dry but the canadian and gfs have a nice nw flow wave and some precip

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Never bet against the ridge

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Looks like the Golden State Warriors are going to rally again, as they're catching up. P's lead, once 17, is now down to 7
 
0Z GFS suite: not as hot as prior 3 runs for 5/28-30. Hopefully, this is for real although it is still almost as hot as prior runs on 5/25-7.
 
GaWx said:
0Z GFS suite: not as hot as prior 3 runs for 5/28-30. Hopefully, this is for real although it is still almost as hot as prior runs on 5/25-7.
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Still has extremely brutal temperatures inland coastal counties Sat thru Tues with a "cooldown" afterward
I saw some 104 to 108 contours on weather.us for the 0z run with a couple of 110 max
 
12z GFS is showing heights of 516dm south of Hudson Bay around 5/30.

Heights that low and that far south this time of year also has to be near-record breaking for this time of year.
 
Stormsfury said:
Still has extremely brutal temperatures inland coastal counties Sat thru Tues with a "cooldown" afterward
I saw some 104 to 108 contours on weather.us for the 0z run with a couple of 110 max
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Can’t wait! ?E2A5AA4E-9A48-4D34-8207-B17CCBA324B3.png
 
GaWx said:
The Euro is very likely too hot by at least several degrees:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/early-2019-s-e-heatwave-duration-record.568/#post-179073
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What's concerning to me on this is that the GFS has increased temperatures a couple of degrees and is getting very close to what the EURO is showing.

What also concerns me is that the normal bias the EURO would have may actually be less severe than normal because of the fact the ground is so bone dry in these areas for one and two, pronounced offshore flow and downslope components will only maximize full insolation in this setup. It will be intriguing to say the least how verification plays out on this one.
 
Unless you're a fan of the SER (I don't mean the poster), don't look at the Happy Hour GFS.
 
GaWx said:
Unless you're a fan of the SER (I don't mean the poster), don't look at the Happy Hour GFS.
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BTW, did you guys see a pop-up rain shower / thunderstorm down that way today?

I saw a tiny red blob on radar in that area earlier.
 
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