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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

SD said:
You guys growing cactus now down that way? At the rate we are going we will be the new southwest by 2020!

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?
I might start a cactus farm, for real!
It hasn’t rained since the Sunday before last, I believe!! So going on 14 days with 0 rain. One county away from me had 2-3” of rain and golfball sized hail, Friday or Saturday evening
 
Anyone got D11+ of the eps? Looks like at d10 it's kicking the trough out of the west and beating the ridge down some

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SD said:
Anyone got D11+ of the eps? Looks like at d10 it's kicking the trough out of the west and beating the ridge down some
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Yes, the ridge gets beaten down more with not as hot and precip increasing markedly from almost none before that day. Still plenty warm but an improvement for sure. Biggest increase in precip in E half of NC with 0.75-1" for days 11-15 combined.
 
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SD said:
Can't wait for the raleigh has X days of water left countdown

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With all the rain during winter and spring that would take a while.


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Summer is here. Saw lightning bugs for the first time tonight.
 
MichaelJ said:
JB posted this could be an epic summer for heat in the... wait for it.....Southeast
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Atleast he can’t be as wrong as he was about winter
 
Tarheel1 said:
Atleast he can’t be as wrong as he was about winter
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I think if we said above normal temps every month for now own. I think we would be right 99/100 times. Unfortunately. ?
Maybe the pattern will flip in a few years.
I also heard that our clothes could cause global warming now. Wow!! ??
 
BHS1975 said:
With all the rain during winter and spring that would take a while.


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Yeah I would think short term issues no doubt, top soil drying out affecting grass, crops even increased fire danger potentially. But long term issues, water table, lakes and reservoirs should still be ok for a while. But with no widespread rain in sight and temps approaching a 100 it sure won't take long

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lol at the 00z GFS and EURO. That's certainly a big change beyond mid-next week.

Maybe it's just a fluke.
 
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SouthATLwx said:
lol at the 00z GFS and EURO. That's certainly a big change beyond mid-next week.

Maybe it's just a fluke.
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Highs looking a lot “ cooler” for Memorial Day weekend, low 90s instead of upper 90s, I’ll take it
 
The 12z Euro is downright awful unless you love a summertime torch. Widespread mid to upper 90s on Fri 5/24 followed by most of the southeast SE of a line from S MS to Rome to GSP to Greensboro down at least to Orlando getting upper 90s to low 100s most or all days Sat 5/25-Wed 5/29. This would be historic even if the Euro is a few degrees too hot, which is quite possible.
The good news if you can call it that is that the heat reduces starting 5/30 as a weak cold front moves through. Of course, by that time, the damage will have been done.
 
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Euro sucks as bad as the GFS
 
Going back to 1897, Macon has had zero 100+ days in May. The 12Z Euro says they'll have 4-5 days of 100+ and they haven't hit 99 in May since 1967. So, is the Euro to be believed? There sure has been consistency about this intense heatwave.

Edit: the 12 EPS supports its operational.
 
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Don't look now @SD but there's something showing up on radar, anemic as it may be and CAMs not too excited either..... dang need something today though, this stiff wind is sucking any moisture left right out of the soil.
 
Some rain earlier. I think being west of the tropical system in the Atlantic will help sinking motion and promote dry air being on the “west side” as it gets a little closer.
 
OK - On a quick 15 minute recess, so I check my phone ... GFS has gone bonkers down here ...

174 Mon 05/27 18Z 103 ° 104 °
Mon 05/27 21Z 96 ° 103 ° 96 °
180 Tue 05/28 00Z 88 ° 103 °

Back to it ...
 
GaWx said:
Going back to 1897, Macon has had zero 100+ days in May. The 12Z Euro says they'll have 4-5 days of 100+ and they haven't hit 99 in May since 1967. So, is the Euro to be believed? There sure has been consistency about this intense heatwave.

Edit: the 12 EPS supports its operational.
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This looks fun, as you’ve been talking about!802A7A0C-657C-4AFB-806A-3887B236A5E3.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
This looks fun, as you’ve been talking about!View attachment 19687
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The only sliver of hope is, wasn’t the winters of 41/42 great around south for snows? The fact we could beat the record that was reached 3 times in 41 is great! Analogs FTL
 
WPC has in their extended discussion noted two things of importance here. The ridge in the SE has been trending stronger and they seem pretty emphatic that upper 90s/low 100s are looking more probable. In fact, this looks like some all time May records are going to fall this weekend into next week.
 
metwannabe said:
Don't look now @SD but there's something showing up on radar, anemic as it may be and CAMs not too excited either..... dang need something today though, this stiff wind is sucking any moisture left right out of the soil.
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I like the boundary running up US1 right now. That may be a good initiation point over the next few hours for a few storms. Otherwise meh.

In other news the d10 euro
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Stormsfury said:
WPC has in their extended discussion noted two things of importance here. The ridge in the SE has been trending stronger and they seem pretty emphatic that upper 90s/low 100s are looking more probable. In fact, this looks like some all time May records are going to fall this weekend into next week.
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SER trending stronger. Imagine my shock!
 
Weatherlover92 said:
On the plus side maybe this will be a frontloaded Summer. Get the triple digit heat out of the way now so we don’t have to worry about it in July/August.
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We hoped last summer was going to be front-loaded only for it to last into October. Although we did get somewhat of a respite in August.
 
Taking a deeper look at the last several GFS runs through day 16, none of them show a day with a high lower than 89*F at ATL.

This is despite the ridge flattening.
 
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