Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

[jackendrickwx]

Euro looked nuts for a lot of the board. Severe for all!

Pics?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Pics?

I just got to my 9am class so can’t post them for awhile, but if you go to weather.us it has free maps you can check out

 

[tennessee storm]

12zgfs holds serve on a potential significant severe outbreak mid next week ... ark tn ms ala....

 

[Snowflowxxl]

12zgfs holds serve on a potential significant severe outbreak mid next week ... ark tn ms ala....

GA and Carolinas also get hit hard on Thursday

 

[Brick Tamland]

GA and Carolinas also get hit hard on Thursday

Pretty close to the dates of the tornado outbreak in 2011. Something about April and bad things happening.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_14–16,_2011

 

[Snowflowxxl]

12z EURO looks menacing with very defined supercell streaks in the precip.

 

[Arcc]

One thing to watch is the trough orientation. You dont need a bombing low with a super strong trough to get a high risk day as last months setup that spawned the Lee county tornado and others. A weaker low amplitude wave that is oriented correctly will do the trick. The 18z GFS is still screaming to watch this period.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

0z GFS continues the theme. Big severe potential for next WED/THUR

 

[Arcc]

0z GFS continues the theme. Big severe potential for next WED/THUR

Yep, still a good bit higher ceiling than this weekend system as well.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Got Cape?

 

[tennessee storm]

Got Cape?
View attachment 18754

Wow .. plenty fuel there.. think last couple runs are trending cape values further north for this one ... let 12zgfs finish

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Yea the 12z GFS is a likely multi-day outbreak

 

[Snowfan]

Got Cape?
View attachment 18754

That’s a lot of CAPE.

 

[tennessee storm]

Wow. 12z euro is a dangerous setup next week widespread outbreak

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow. 12z euro is a dangerous setup next week widespread outbreak

Yep, I haven’t looked at CAPE parameters but based off H5 on the euro this would probably be a multi-day severe wx outbreak

 

[TXTornado]

 

[Arcc]

Definitely has trended away from the broad based trough to a sharper phased trough. Not looking like the possible tornado outbreak it was at one time.

 

[tennessee storm]

Definitely has trended away from the broad based trough to a sharper phased trough. Not looking like the possible tornado outbreak it was at one time.

Course that’s still has to be worked out... but models are converging on a high ceiling threat of a outbreak is concerning

 

[Snowfan]

While it appears reasonably certain that severe-weather risk will
increase across the central -- and later the eastern -- U.S. as this
system advances, differences evident at this time suggest
predictability issues, and thus no areas of heightened severe
potential will be delineated at this time.

Here's what the SPC said this morning.

 

[tennessee storm]

12z gfs still looks quite nasty for midweek nextweek....