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Severe April 6-8th severe threat

Two rounds of severe weather tomorrow? My question is how well is moisture going to build in for the second one and how much activity on the gulf coast there will be. Screenshot_20190407-095413_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190407-095427_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Nws of bham says there will be a outflow boundary moving into west alabama by tomorrow early morning. And that there is too many factors in play right now to increase the risk area so there staying with marginal as of now. 3km srh helicty and 1km helicity forecast at 1 oclock when the second batch fires up.Screenshot_20190407-100847_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190407-100900_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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Tarheel1 said:
Just wanting to bring up the HRRR was horribly wrong with the complex that went through ATL last night! Showed it holding together as a fairly strong line into Greenville around 7-9AM, didn’t even get a sprinkle.
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Ok it is the 30+ hr hrrr anyway haha.

Lots of potential across the south the next few days. It’ll depend on how these remnant outflow boundaries act today.

Latest nam did have a much more organized line through NC at 12z as well.

All in all it’ll be an active two days!
 
In slight risk for the first time this year, I believe.
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Recent 3KM nam looked to get the Midlands around 80F with great sfc/mu cape around 2k.
 
This is at 4 am. From the Newest HRRR has a line of thunderstorms reaching into central alabama. Severe parameters aren't too shabby with the line. Central alabama will be worked over, if the atmosphere can recover and destabilize later; very good wind shear will be in place during the afternoon for a second wave.Screenshot_20190407-122816_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If we get that MCS to develop and head into large amounts of instability like models are showing, there probably will be a enhanced risk
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Im not sure there is enough right now to upgrade from what they have. If they did upgrade i think the 85 corridor would be the favored area with late evening timing farther east possibly reducing some of the instability.

Another thing is the potential for some excessive rain totals for areas that get storms on Monday then get under what might be a west to east oriented band Tuesday morning

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Sounding from central alabama. Perfect hodo curvature. Cape isnt all that impressive neither is lapse rates though.hrrr_2019040718_022_32.59--86.84.png
 
Zander98al said:
Sounding from central alabama. Perfect hodo curvature. Cape isnt all that impressive neither is lapse rates though.View attachment 18568
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This sounding supports storms struggling to stay surface based and taking on some elevated characteristics due to lowering SBcape, still increased MUcape, still this sounding is sketchy and is definitely something to watch
 
If storms develop like the way the NAM shows in NC, there’s more of a hail threat, if there’s more of a QLCS/big multicellular clusters or MCS the wind damage threat increases even more
 
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