That's what I thought because if you look at radar and the past few hours that band is just getting stronger
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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Wetbulb here is 33.5, and yeah looking at radar that area of precipitation is definitely impressive already
Not seeing a lot of ground truth Mping reports but i don’t see this thing completely whiffing anyone just south of 85. But what do I know? I’m just a guy that thinks it’s going to snow in the south at 900’ elevation in April
I think we’ll get the slingshot effect here in a couple hours. Precip explosion later should expose the “haves” and “have nots” fairly quickly
Just too dry. Radar may blossom but very little moisture to work with for western NC. Nothing will survive the mountains that is out west. The redevelopment in Georgia will provide a period of an hour or two where mixed showers will quickly brush east...brought by almost zero iso lift mechanism. East east yeast folks. Concord NC or nothing it looks like. Very few people will see 1-3” unless it zeroes in directly over the big Queen City. Asheville NC and Mount Airy NC may only see Virga snow. Sleet will be reported in many places of Georgia and South Carolina with better timing.
Idk about ground truth, but here’s the HRRR reflectivity vs obs, looks like a bit more precip associated with the coastal aswell, idk if it’s making it to the sfc tho 
Welp you said where I’m at (concord) so I agree lol
NCSNOW
Member
Best pre event radiational cooling you could ask for. See lee county airport, sanford at 34 degrees. Temps are really falling off a cliff rural areas.
Need the moisture and need it before 9 to 10 am. Thats the tough part.
Need the moisture and need it before 9 to 10 am. Thats the tough part.
snowlover91
Member
ICON looks similar to 12km NAM with a drier and warmer shift.
Snowflowxxl
Member
RGEM and GFS seem to have led the way here. EURO with ANOTHER fail, NAM a joke once again.
Final call
Only problem is it want matter on a cold dry spring morning!! Lol
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Hrrr is just ugly
snowlover91
Member
RGEM still has some solid qpf making it into upstate SC but dries up in NC and has a dusting of snow at best still.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The NAM and most other guidance continue living in their own fantasy world with dews around here and we're still about 10F below the 0z NAM. 18z GFS MOS is closest to reality.
Latest HRRR is a Lake Murray special
trashest of trash models
trashest of trash models
Rgem weirdly blips my area becuase a snow “Island” develops on top of me, lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 0z RGEM is the only model (so far) in this current suite that didn't drastically lower QPF in/around Charlotte.
Also looks to be one of the only models that looks close to radar. In terms of the system it self.
So I should hug it, lolol
If it’s hour 12z on a model run what time is it here? 6?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're 4 hours behind now after we sprung our clocks forward for spring, 12z would be 8am!
Stormsfury
Member
For reference, it is indeed raining lightly in Charleston and Goose Creek... been doing so for the past couple of hours
Hrrr is slowly improving, it’s just the matter of how cold it is allowing snow to develop
Lol autocorrect/spellcheck thing needaaa chilllllll
Snowflowxxl
Member
Pretty sure we had more snow to track in March and April this year than January and February! Smdh
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Apples-apples comparison of NWS composite reflectivity w/ a 1 hour 3z HRRR composite reflectivity forecast for 4z (12am eastern) shows reality is much wetter w/ more precipitation further north over the lowlands of SC. Ground truth from @Stormsfury also confirms that this precipitation which wasn't forecast to occur (yet) by the model has been actually reaching the ground. You should also notice the higher returns over Alabama where HRRR forecast nothing on composite reflectivity.
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Yes it is true. Actually got a little rain in my backyard. (North Alabama).
Precip looks to be ramping up along the gulf coast in Florida if that means anything.
Eh nothing matters until the column is saturated in this dry air..if it even does. I don’t see a big difference in actual radar vs model output.
Checking the evening soundings the PWAT value was under 0.2 for Greensboro NC. Ouch.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Radar should get pretty interesting soon
LovingGulfLows
Member
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I mean, the upper level disturbance is impressive. IMO, I still think the bigger thing to worry about is temps for Upstate SC/Piedmont NC..I think the moisture will be there. The vorticity of the ULL will be able to pull in more moisture, I mean, you can already see a cyclonic shape with the radar associated with the ULL(very comma-like). It's packing a punch and it hasn't really developed into one system yet.
Looks interesting just north of Wilmington NC currently. A blueberry farmer called freaking out about the radiational cooling tonight per the NWS. I wonder if some sleet could fall there as the precip is approaching temps in the 30s.
Also I think we are currently colder than expected ... Charlotte sitting at 36 .. I’m a little north east of the city .. probably 35 ish
Dew points around 24
Dew points around 24
SimeonNC
Member
currently 39.6