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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

Found this on TOS regarding the 18z Euro. This may add some weight to what the HRRR and RAP have been showing this evening.

“After moving NW for a few runs, the Euro has moved SE with the precip shield in its last 2 runs including the new 18z run. Greenville and west gets less than a tenth on this run. Charlotte is around 0.25”
 
What gets me is I'm looking at radar and see all of this precipitation in Louisiana starting to get into Mississippi and Alabama and no model is picking this up but this could turn out to be a big part of our system.
 
snowlover91 said:
Well I'd rather be wrong and folks out west see a nice snow event but there have been some red flags on this event that has me cautious. The qpf output is everywhere right now with models but recent trends have not been good. We need to see what the 00z model guidance shows and how radar develops overnight, I do think the cutoff on this will be quite sharp on the NW edge of the precipitation shield.
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April being a giant ?!
 
Ethan80963 said:
What gets me is I'm looking at radar and see all of this precipitation in Louisiana starting to get into Mississippi and Alabama and no model is picking this up but this could turn out to be a big part of our system.
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The HRRR composite reflectivity actually shows it pretty well, it’s just so light it doesn’t show up on the qpf charts or the sim reflectivity radar.

7D3EA278-EBF1-4F8C-8779-4F8B3E104396.jpeg
 
This run of the hrrr is a slight improvement, tiny shift west in precip sheild, very tiny but low pressure is a tad stronger and closer, better than continuing that eastward trend
 
Nice amount of precip associated with the upper level energy in MS/LA. Could help folks in SC/NC with pulling moisture further inland as it moves east and the trof starts going neg. tilt. I think the upper level energy is key to snow for folks in places like Greenville and Charlotte. NAM has the 500mb energy continue to strengthen until it closes off in NE SC.
 
IMO I see the precip in AL/MS/LA either aiding in getting moisture into our system or just combining with the system.
 
This axis of snow is honestly looking more likely blending in all the models, NAM 12km was probably much more realistic this run, still has a very narrow band of heavy snow, I’m in it so I’m good where I’m at, hrrr kinda looked a tad better and has snow back around CLT, like I said I think that axis from southern CLT to Salisbury looks OK 580F6BE3-6915-4667-9DDA-95CD2E80A4B2.png
 
This is why I toss the 12km NAM and never trust it for winter events. A dramatic shift in one run, the 3km has had the right idea for awhile now.
DC9A9046-785F-4573-9E9D-19CA5014AEE9.gif
 
Ethan80963 said:
Still not worrying because most models have most of the precip focused on the eastern side of the system but on radar most precip is on the western side.
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That will change as the coastal develops and energy transfers to the coast, hence the skip/drop in precip over NW NC.
 
Eastern NC going to see some pretty stout winds....will be interesting to see if this thing can crank up enough to get a few 60-75 mph gust over the OBX....NAM is probably over done but has a lot of eastern NC 25-30, gusting 50+ even inland, still I would be surprised to see more than 40-45 away from the water.
 
Downeastnc said:
Eastern NC going to see some pretty stout winds....will be interesting to see if this thing can crank up enough to get a few 60-75 mph gust over the OBX....NAM is probably over done but has a lot of eastern NC 25-30, gusting 50+ even inland, still I would be surprised to see more than 40-45 away from the water.
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Yeah latest 3km has sustained TRopical depression type winds across Eastern NC. It will certainly be a nasty day.
 
Lol @ the panic 6 hours before go time. It’s going to snow

I don’t understand why at initialization none of the meso models look anything like radar? lol We currently have precip all the way into N AL,MS,TN, AR.. yet

AAE55656-8578-46F1-A6DE-752A308C39F0.png

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Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah latest 3km has sustained TRopical depression type winds across Eastern NC. It will certainly be a nasty day.
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Yeah NAM 3k peaked gust in this area is 55 knts around 5pm thats overdone by a bit I think....all the other models though have it more like 40-45 so if PGV hits 45+ I will be surprised....but happy.
 
Looks almost as if this storm wants to develop a sting jet near the obx but right off the coast or am I crazy ? Scorpions tail, mid level drying and strong 850mb winds
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Lol @ the panic 6 hours before go time. It’s going to snow

I don’t understand why at initialization none of the meso models look anything like radar? lol We currently have precip all the way into N AL,MS,TN, AR.. yet

View attachment 18388

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The sim radar usually shows only precip that reaches the ground. Light batches of showers are difficult to model sometimes as well.
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah NAM 3k peaked gust in this area is 55 knts around 5pm thats overdone by a bit I think....all the other models though have it more like 40-45 so if PGV hits 45+ I will be surprised....but happy.
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Good to see you Ron. How you been? The 3km is prob overdone some but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 35-45mph gusts.
49CA6736-FB9F-4522-893D-9775832A41DC.png
 
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