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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

It’s funny that I was making my snow map before seeing the 12z EPS and they are virtually identical in SC. Maybe I should have shown more love further up into NC but I believe the window closes pretty fast. Timing is ?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Take about a third of this and you get the general idea, using globals and high res models while the former is not properly dispersed for this range gives you roughly the same idea for this storm (because amts will probably be small in any case). Up to a slushy inch (maybe 2 at the very most) possible in isolated areas near the I-85 corridor between the GA state line & Greensboro/Winston-Salem. 0z high resolution runs later this evening will be worth looking at to modify smaller-scale details

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thanks Webb and also GAWX who was tracking this days and days ago with interest. So does this post indicate that the jackpot might see 3 inches fall, but maybe an inch or so stick? imo that would be a win. once the ground is covered, and fat wet flakes are falling, I wouldn't care how much it is, seeing as its April.
 
NGTim said:
thanks Webb and also GAWX who was tracking this days and days ago with interest. So does this post indicate that the jackpot might see 3 inches fall, but maybe an inch or so stick? imo that would be a win. once the ground is covered, and fat wet flakes are falling, I wouldn't care how much it is, seeing as its April.
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The general expectation for those who hit the jackpot, maybe 1", no more than 2" would actually accumulate of the liquid equivalent that falls from the sky. Best shot of this is for those in upstate SC or the southern piedmont of NC.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I will assume the biggest winners tomorrow might receive a trace or maybe a dusting. It will be awesome for someone on here to see flakes in April. I will be enjoying my low 60s here lol.
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I largely agree with you although I do think some areas will even get more than a dusting with POSSIBLY as much as 2-3" in isolated SC/NC locations between upstate SC and Charlotte. Closer to you, I think NE ATL burbs have a shot of seeing some beautiful wet flakes likely without more than a trace. Are you going to chase in NE burbs? If so, be careful!
 
NGTim said:
thanks Webb and also GAWX who was tracking this days and days ago with interest. So does this post indicate that the jackpot might see 3 inches fall, but maybe an inch or so stick? imo that would be a win. once the ground is covered, and fat wet flakes are falling, I wouldn't care how much it is, seeing as its April.
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A lot of what falls will melt due to various factors like near to above freezing surface temps, warm ground, solar insolation (after 8am and more a factor in NC), and compaction of what does fall due to low ratios and it being a wet/heavy snow. Assuming the warm bubble modeled on the RGEM doesn't occur, upstate SC into areas around CLT probably have the best shot at seeing an inch or so of snow.
 
My first (& likely only) call map for this winter storm late tonight & early tomorrow.

Most folks that see snow late tonight & tomorrow morning will most likely pick up a trace or a dusting.

A slushy 1" (or more) of accumulation (likely confined to isolated areas) is possible for the southern piedmont of NC and extreme upstate SC including areas like Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, etc., and possibly areas as far west as the blue ridge escarpment.

Flurries are generally possible for those near & west of US-HWY 1 but this event will be mostly cold rain well east of I-85.
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I will take a slushy 1 inch or a flurry ... but you know damn well I’ll be hunting for the overachiever amount when I stay up all night tracking this puppy
 
GaWx said:
I largely agree with you although I do think some areas will even get more than a dusting with POSSIBLY as much as 2-3" in isolated SC/NC locations between upstate SC and Charlotte. Closer to you, I think NE ATL burbs have a shot of seeing some beautiful wet flakes likely without more than a trace. Are you going to chase in NE burbs? If so, be careful!
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No chasing for me for the rest of the year lol. After going to Macon earlier this month and getting burned, I will be waiting till at least December before I do that again. That is unless some major shifts in the models start in the next 12 hours.
 
NAM comes right to the Durham and Wake border with snow and then hits a wall.
 
Upstate sc folks better hope this aint right, I’m fine with it but so far 18z runs have looked better for areas around CLT/N/NW
157CAE31-3C10-4A6C-A72F-143BCBB2B2F0.png
 
Hrrr has slowly been improved, spits out a wintry mix with areas getting a T-3 where it snows, soundings support heavy wet snow vs the IP it shows, good that this model is showing this especially with a warm bias, it’s tendency to do bad with in-situ CADs, and it’s mixing bias, and it has slowly bring precip west, it’s also showing how heavy this precip could be 2725BC2C-9315-4734-B4FA-FA21F74D041C.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hrrr has slowly been improved, spits out a wintry mix with areas getting a T-3 where it snows, soundings support heavy wet snow vs the IP it shows, good that this model is showing this especially with a warm bias, it’s tendency to do bad with in-situ CADs, and it’s mixing bias, and it has slowly bring precip west, it’s also showing how heavy this precip could be View attachment 18350
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Recent 19z has continued the trend .. here we go boys and girls
 
Of note, quite a few models show a bullseye of qpf and snow around the CLT area. The 18z 3km NAM, Euro, RAP and HRRR all showed this. Up next is the RGEM and ICON.
 
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