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Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat

Arcc

Arcc

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After Myfrotho704 posted last nights GFS my ears perked up, now the Euro and 6z GFS doubles down.

A large broad based trough forms over the central US by the weekend. Shear vectors scream supercells on both models with both showing good moisture feed and surface cape and probably will incease on the models due to the big bermuda ridge. Both models are also showing a stout EML building in.

This one may be a big problem.
 
Sounding from north MS. Id like to see deeper moisture above 850mb, but that is nasty for the GFS at this range. Helicity is 200-300 even with SW winds at the surface.

gfs_2019022406_138_33.75--90.25.png
 
Arcc said:
The 12z Euro is much less organized with the trough than the GFS so the threat is much less.
Click to expand...
Yea looking at 5H the upper level low that ejects from the Pacific NW later this week phases with the PV lobe on the GFS. The 12 euro, FV3 and GGEM both look to miss the phase and shear out the energy as it ejects and tracks South of the diving PV lobe.
 
Seriously I dont know what to believe. The Euro all of a sudden amps up the threat again for AL/GA on the third and would be a very dangerous setup. Cape in south AL exceeds 2500 with favorable shear. In fact, it looks to be trending where we started except a day later.

I hate our models.

Edit: The more I look through the Euro, the more concerning it becomes. If and that is a big if it is right, that would be a big problem.
 
Last edited:
Arcc said:
Seriously I dont know what to believe. The Euro all of a sudden amps up the threat again for AL/GA on the third and would be a very dangerous setup. Cape in south AL exceeds 2500 with favorable shear. In fact, it looks to be trending where we started except a day later.

I hate our models.

Edit: The more I look through the Euro, the more concerning it becomes. If and that is a big if it is right, that would be a big problem.
Click to expand...
Arcc said:
Seriously I dont know what to believe. The Euro all of a sudden amps up the threat again for AL/GA on the third and would be a very dangerous setup. Cape in south AL exceeds 2500 with favorable shear. In fact, it looks to be trending where we started except a day later.

I hate our models.

Edit: The more I look through the Euro, the more concerning it becomes. If and that is a big if it is right, that would be a big problem.
Click to expand...
I really hope this doesn't happen.
 
Arcc said:
No doubt the 12z GFS is trending toward the Euro.
Click to expand...

Yeah I think the Euro is the model to lean towards right now for this and with that it looks like there might be a chance for some severe weather, especially if there is ample sunshine ahead of the system.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I don’t see our wedge this time, the Carolina wedge
Click to expand...

I personally wouldn't mind a little teeny wedge right along the blue ridge escarpment to enhance local baroclinicity and horizontal shear in the central-western piedmont. This is actually largely why there's a secondary local max in tornado track density over Charlotte and Winston-Salem w/ the main corridor being my old stomping grounds in Fayetteville and areas along/just east of I-95.

small.allen.nc.tornado.density.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I personally wouldn't mind a little teeny wedge right along the blue ridge escarpment to enhance local baroclinicity and horizontal shear in the central-western piedmont. This is actually largely why there's a secondary local max in tornado track density over Charlotte and Winston-Salem w/ the main corridor being my old stomping grounds in Fayetteville and areas along/just east of I-95.

View attachment 16797
Click to expand...

Yep and I definitely remember March 3rd 2012, wedge front moved north allowing instability and a EF2 tornado to develop
22657EC8-17A6-4EE2-B833-D86650ABC439.png
 
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