Pattern Marvelous March

[dsaur]

The FV3 takes has that same wave stronger with precip extending further north and as a result has wintry precip on its northern side that covers much of the E 1/3 of SC and a tiny bit of E GA all within 30 miles of here, where is at a mere 35 F. That's why this first wave really has my attention assuming there will actually be that wave. There hasn't been even an inkling of a March threat for anywhere near to here in over 20 years.

I assume @Stormsfury ansd @pcbjr are and/or will be following this closely.

It's that reinforcing 1041 high coming down at the crucial time that has my attention. It's one of the hardest pieces of the puzzle to me, with a blast of cold air wanting to retreat before the low can get going. Without the fresh cold air it's the beloved 33 and rain. With it you get 73 and many others.

 

[dsaur]

Thanks for proving my point Larry. 48 years since a major icestorm in ATL. So basically it would be a once in a lifetime event.

Lol, good one, smart ass but good To me March is the mystery month, so volitle, and able to break norms with ease. Nothing surprises me in March after I saw a blizzard, that was like seeing freakin' bigfoot, and March will always be revered by me.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The FV3 takes has that same wave stronger with precip extending further north and as a result has wintry precip on its northern side that covers much of the E 1/3 of SC and a tiny bit of E GA all within 30 miles of here, where is at a mere 35 F. That's why this first wave really has my attention assuming there will actually be that wave. There hasn't been even an inkling of a March threat for anywhere near to here in over 20 years.

I assume @Stormsfury ansd @pcbjr are and/or will be following this closely.

Trend on eps has actually been in your favor, good to see that , stronger suppression, stronger 50/50 low

 

[Brick Tamland]

8 big dogs for RDU! Not bad for a Day 11 eps mean...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Definitely can't complain about that. That is about the best you can get this far out.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Best euro eps snow mean in a while for N.C.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Again, don't think we have seen this since the December storm.

 

[packfan98]

For days people were talking about the March 3-5 period. Has that now changed to Mar 6-10? Seems like the period keeps being delayed.

Its March. You dont get ice storms in the south in March unless its one of those freak one in a hundred year storms.

Maybe a little. But i dont recall any major ice storms in March in my lifetime.

Thanks for proving my point Larry. 48 years since a major icestorm in ATL. So basically it would be a once in a lifetime event.

When is the last time there was a major March ice storm in NC?

I know that but the topic is major March icestorms. Not January.

Actually it was the topic because someone mentioned the possibility of major ice in March. And you're welcome.

Stop posting this garbage. It’s banter.

 

[Stormlover]

Stop posting this garbage. It’s banter.

Thank you, it's just ridiculous. Why this stuff is allowed to go on is amazing.

 

[packfan98]

Thank you, it's just ridiculous. Why this stuff is allowed to go on is amazing.

We are on it. Thanks for your patience.

 

[Webberweather53]

Trend on eps has actually been in your favor, good to see that , stronger suppression, stronger 50/50 low View attachment 16461

Ideally at the large-scale, for a big March snow in central NC, we want this vortex over southern Canada to dig a little further south into New England at the same time our parent s/w is leaving the Rockies, we're pretty close to that now although the further our s/w lags behind and the less our vortex digs, the further north the eventual storm and associated snow/ice goes.

 

[NCSNOW]

I think Greensboro area just a few years ago had 2 in one March.

You are correct.

 

[Webberweather53]

Here are a few notable on this date snowstorms I've mapped in NC.

We're virtually in that time of the winter where our snow climo drops off but the number of big dogs does not, you tend to get a lot more bang for your buck in late February & early March which is something to keep in mind going forward. A few folks here might actually remember that 1989 snowstorm.

 

[Sumterite]

It's been at 5 years. And, depending where you actually live in the Midlands then it could be slightly over 4 years, as several folks picked up anywhere between 3"-4" during a early November 2014 snow storm.

Eastern Midlands got a real nice snow last year. I felt awful for yall west of Sumter.

 

[BufordWX]

Fv3 has something interesting a week from today.

 

[Storm5]

Fv3 has something interesting a week from today.View attachment 16468

Yep

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Storm5]

Then a few days later

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Snowflowxxl]

GFS looks suppressed.

 

[BufordWX]

GFS looks suppressed.

Considering how far out we still are and the almost inevitable NW trend that will come that has got to be a pretty good sign right?

 

[Brick Tamland]

Considering how far out we still are and the inevitable NW trend that will come that has got to be a pretty good sign right?

I think so. The NW trend usually happens as long as the storm actually stays around on the models.

 

[Mitch West]

Energy flying around with cold air around. It’s been a consistent storm signal. Specifics like suppression doesn’t matter at this range, which goes with out saying really. Going to be interesting watching to see how our last chance plays out.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is hour 186 for single ensemble members from the gefs, this is impressive, some are still suppressed

 

[Myfrotho704_]

SE Canada lobe keeps oozing south and gaining some strength (gefs)

 

[KyloG]

The anomalies are impressive. Didn’t know you could have cold with -PNA, go figure.

 

[BufordWX]

This is hour 186 for single ensemble members from the gefs, this is impressive, some are still suppressed View attachment 16471

That Monday system certainly has a few legs to stand on right now. Also only about 7/8 days away. Hopefully it will still be on models in 2-3 days then I will start believing. Until then I expect nothing but will still watch this.

 

[mrdaddyman]

Yeah this is why I canceled March 1-5 and focused on March 6+....it’s all about the +PNA, good look but no blocking makes me question the reality of the run. This will definitely have a different look come 00z, just too drastic of a change to expect it to hold...but good to see fantasy systems for 3/6 as the ensemble patterns noted was the best chance after the first few days of March.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Are you saying that the lack of blocking would not allow the storm be able to amp up to the degree the Euro is forecasting and therefore would not track up the coast? Or are you saying that without blocking the storm would cut inland? Just trying to learn, thanks.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

This is hour 186 for single ensemble members from the gefs, this is impressive, some are still suppressed View attachment 16471

Wow more of them are coming in around that suppressed look.

 

[ajr]

The anomalies are impressive. Didn’t know you could have cold with -PNA, go figure.

View attachment 16473View attachment 16474

And positive NAO/AO as well ?

 

[KyloG]

Are you saying that the lack of blocking would not allow the storm be able to amp up to the degree the Euro is forecasting and therefore would not track up the coast? Or are you saying that without blocking the storm would cut inland? Just trying to learn, thanks.

We have blocking...very favorable pacific block.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The anomalies are impressive. Didn’t know you could have cold with -PNA, go figure.

View attachment 16473View attachment 16474

-EPO/NP blocking can do wonders

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’m just gonna say this, that crazy gfs run is coming, lol, whether it’s a freak ice or snow storm, it happens all the time with good signals like this

 

[Meteorologist1999]

-EPO/NP blocking can do wonders

Depending on how this setup end up I will be rooting for a -EPO/NP blocking’s instead of a damn -NAO next winter.

 

[Jon]

Are you saying that the lack of blocking would not allow the storm be able to amp up to the degree the Euro is forecasting and therefore would not track up the coast? Or are you saying that without blocking the storm would cut inland? Just trying to learn, thanks.

I guess there’s many options with the euros depiction but blocking is just something we (usually but not always) need...It would be very easy for this to trend warmer and NW without blocking, but I love the west coast ridging and I think that’s what we need to cash in. There’s just nothing to keep the storm south except for shortwave evolution due to the ridging and if that changes slightly, or the northern stream ULL digs too far and 1) phases or 2) shears our wave, we are screwed. Lots of options to screw up without blocking....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Webberweather53]

-EPO/NP blocking can do wonders

The later in winter and into spring we go, the stronger the SE US ridge flexes its muscles under a -EPO, we're getting away w/ it here because we have a big PV lobe diving down into the Lakes, the wavetrain is so positively tilted in the Pacific & the wavelengths are short enough s.t. we end up w/ a general trough over the E US at least for now anyways. Latter stages of March could be a preview of summer given the way everything looks atm

 

[Storm5]

Gefs through day ten

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BufordWX]

Gefs through day ten

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I will take e3 to go please!

 

[pcbjr]

I will take e3 to go please!

e2 or 13 ... just to drive the rest of ya nuts ...

 

[ForsythSnow]

Gefs through day ten

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Lots of good members there. 9 or 10 are decent storms which seems like an increase. Something we want to see for sure. Glad there aren't many 0 snow solutions and that they are on the decrease from earlier.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Lots of good members there. 9 or 10 are decent storms which seems like an increase. Something we want to see for sure. Glad there aren't many 0 snow solutions and that they are on the decrease from earlier.

Definitely a good trend today with the ensembles. As long as they keep increasing the hits and decreasing the zero hits, then it should remain a legit shot.

 

[SD]

The later in winter and into spring we go, the stronger the SE US ridge flexes its muscles under a -EPO, we're getting away w/ it here because we have a big PV lobe diving down into the Lakes, the wavetrain is so positively tilted in the Pacific & the wavelengths are short enough s.t. we end up w/ a general trough over the E US at least for now anyways. Latter stages of March could be a preview of summer given the way everything looks atm

Mid to late March is going to be May like

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[Tacoma]

Mid to late March is going to be May like

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I doubt it, we'll be ready for spring and it will be cold like it should have been in January and February.

 

[ATLwxfan]

I doubt it, we'll be ready for spring and it will be cold like it should have been in January and February.

We’ve been warmer than normal since December (brief PV cool down aside), I would bet on a warm March. Pattern persistence.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk