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Pattern Marvelous March

Webberweather53 said:
The PNA's contribution to SE US temperature is most significant during the heart of the winter when the waveguide is at its most mature. The later we get in February and especially March, the less the PNA actually matters for us because the wavelengths are significantly shorter at this time of the year and it's much easier to stick a trough into the western US and still end up w/ another corresponding trough in the SE US.

In Jan, the PNA alone explains roughly one-third of the variability in SE US temperatures

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In March, the explained variance (taking the shaded value below and squaring it) is almost zero everywhere in the southeastern US except in Florida and along the Gulf Coast.
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I was talking more about the system itself with regard to track, etc and less about cold...but good info. I don’t care for deep cold I just want it “cold enough.”

It just seems to me we won’t have a realistic shot at snow without a +PNA (only talking about this coming 10-15 days) and probably more importantly, blocking. Some mix events, sure, but I think we all want the white stuff.


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2c2e7e66cbcef4fdc1b8a215cf641673.jpg


Best euro eps snow mean in a while for N.C.


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Come on EPS I need some back up from the boys to know if this fantasy storm has any support

Wow just as I said that I saw the pic above lol
 
Per my memory for March per the 12z GFS/Euro combo;

1. It has the most threatening maps for a widespread major snow/sleet for the well inland SE since the actual last widespread of 2009 from that bowling ball.
2. For the deep SE, even though that first wave is still a near miss, I can't recall a nearer miss in over 20 years.

We really haven't seen much in the way of big SE March threats outside of Greensboro and other nearby parts of NC in 10 years.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Its March. You dont get ice storms in the south in March unless its one of those freak one in a hundred year storms.
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ATL has had 4 major icestorms since the late 1800's (so about one every 40 or so years) (with all 4 just since 1948: 1948, 1960, 1960, 1971). And those are just the major ones. Who knows how many non-major ice events they've had in March since then?
 
GaWx said:
ATL has had 4 major icestorms since the late 1800's (so about one every 40 or so years) (with all 4 just since 1948: 1948, 1960, 1960, 1971). And those are just the major ones. Who knows how many non-major ice events they've had in March since then?
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Thanks for proving my point Larry. 48 years since a major icestorm in ATL. So basically it would be a once in a lifetime event.
 
ColaSnow said:
It's been at 5 years. And, depending where you actually live in the Midlands then it could be slightly over 4 years, as several folks picked up anywhere between 3"-4" during a early November 2014 snow storm.
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Oh yeh, very isolated event though as I’m sure you remember. I lived in Irmo at the time and had to drive 10 mins to Lexington to see it. The cold pocket of air aloft meant business.
 
Jon said:
No, there was a major ice storm in Atlanta in 2000.


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He had a typo. He meant in March. ATL has actually had 5 in any month since 2000 (Dec-Feb)!

***Corrected since one was in Dec.
 
GaWx said:
He had a typo. He meant in March. ATL has actually had 5 in any month since 2000 (all Jan-Feb)!
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Oh ok. Yeah March ice is definitely more rare in general. I think RDU averages only 4 ice days per year, so that includes all months. Major events even more rare. RDU to ATL and northern gulf state counties of course have a better chance at it than the rest of the SE


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Jon said:
Oh ok. Yeah March ice is definitely more rare in general. I think RDU averages only 4 ice days per year, so that includes all months. Major events even more rare. RDU to ATL and northern gulf state counties of course have a better chance at it than the rest of the SE


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One of the 5 major ATL ZRs since 2000 was in Dec, which I've now corrected in that post.
 
Jon said:
I was talking more about the system itself with regard to track, etc and less about cold...but good info. I don’t care for deep cold I just want it “cold enough.”

It just seems to me we won’t have a realistic shot at snow without a +PNA (only talking about this coming 10-15 days) and probably more importantly, blocking. Some mix events, sure, but I think we all want the white stuff.


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Also important to keep in mind one reason the PNA isn’t more positive here is the wave that eventually triggers the snow in the models around day 9 passes over the Rockies a few days earlier briefly knocking down the index but without said wave there isn’t much of a chance of snow to begin with. The PNA on its own corresponds to a ridge over the US and Canadian Rockies which funnels modest cP airmasses into the SE US, that works in the meat of the winter but near the shoulder seasons we need additional blocking somewhere else to even have a glimmer of hope. In late February and March there’s really next to no linear correlation between temps in the upper south and the PNA. It’s much easier to “cheat the system” at this time of the year w/ smaller longwaves.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Also important to keep in mind one reason the PNA isn’t more positive here is the wave that eventually triggers the snow in the models around day 9 passes over the Rockies a few days earlier briefly knocking down the index but without said wave there isn’t much of a chance of snow to begin with. The PNA on its own corresponds to a ridge over the US and Canadian Rockies which funnels modest cP airmasses into the SE US, that works in the meat of the winter but near the shoulder seasons we need additional blocking somewhere else to even have a glimmer of hope. In late February and March there’s really next to no linear correlation between temps in the upper south and the PNA. It’s much easier to “cheat the system” at this time of the year w/ smaller longwaves.
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This is just a few March events off the top of my head. You have one that encompasses more events?

Screen Shot 2019-02-24 at 3.56.58 PM.png


14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 264.png
 
Storm5 said:
Wave one , if we want to even call this a wave
cba87b49ca41ce7dd544bcd389629009.jpg



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The FV3 takes has that same wave stronger with precip extending further north and as a result has wintry precip on its northern side that covers much of the E 1/3 of SC and a tiny bit of E GA all within 30 miles of here, where is at a mere 35 F. That's why this first wave really has my attention assuming there will actually be that wave. There hasn't been even an inkling of a March threat for anywhere near to here in over 20 years.

I assume @Stormsfury ansd @pcbjr are and/or will be following this closely.
 
KyloG said:
This is just a few March events off the top of my head. You have one that encompasses more events?

View attachment 16457


View attachment 16458
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The composite shown below is comprised of the following events and is lagged approximately one day before each of these:
March 12 2018
March 11-12 2017
March 2-3 2010
March 1-2 2009
March 12-14 1993
March 24-25 1983
March 22-23 1981
March 1-3 1980
March 1-3 1978
March 25-26 1974
March 25-26 1972
March 25-26 1971
February 28-March 2 1969
March 4-7 1962
March 9-10 1960
March 2-4 1960


compday.plp4W9AGDx.gif

We have the composite mean pattern of the above events almost to a T by 168 HR on the EPS.

We have the large-scale pattern almost exactly right where we want it to be, we just really need to take advantage of this golden opportunity.
ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Actually it was the topic because someone mentioned the possibility of major ice in March. And you're welcome.
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Just because someone mentions it doesn't make it the topic... the topic is March discussion, if we could please debate historical events in banter that would be great.

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