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Pattern Marvelous March

GaWx said:
12Z GFS will wake up those still sleeping. Clown has 1/2-1” snow @deltadog03 almost to @GeorgiaGirl and 3-4” just east of Columbia on 3/6 thanks to the central FL crossing of the low below a record breaking cold airmass in the Midwest. This isn’t just a “not bad” look. This is a great look and about as near perfect a look you can get for the Deep South!

Edit: Of course, this is still just a 10 day out fantasy and will change! But at least this is a hint of what CAN happen with a far south tracking Gulf low below a record breaking 3/3-5 Midwest airmass.
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I have already went all in. Lol out of money. Haha
 
12z GEFS average isn't all that impressive -- there were a few members. Still a lot of variance with timing and what not... we'll just have to keep following
 
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The GEFS is...fine, but it's not as good as the 6z was. Still shows a signal around similar dates.

Needless to say I'm afraid, very very afraid of putting my feet in.
 
I seem to notice that the Gefs Ensembles/Snow mean usually go back and forth on runs. So just because this run decrease don’t means the chances are going down the signal STILL there. Let’s not get negative at DAY 10
 
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Also there was a good amount of gefs members that were suppressed with the first hit and then came in with a second hit .. for the ones that were surpressed.. which is interesting showing there’s lots of potential within this time frame say from hours 190-384
 
Storm5 said:
Hell I’ll take the 12z gefs all day everyday.


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You sure about that? Only 2 members have anything significant and the mean is way down from 6Z. However, I will say there is some signal and it is just one run. Looks to be between a dry event, a deep south event, or an upper south event.
GEFSSE_prec_snens_312.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
You sure about that? Only 2 members have anything significant and the mean is way down from 6Z. However, I will say there is some signal and it is just one run. Looks to be between a dry event, a deep south event, or an upper south event.
GEFSSE_prec_snens_312.png
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With our luck I hope it don’t end up a upper south event.
 
For days people were talking about the March 3-5 period. Has that now changed to Mar 6-10? Seems like the period keeps being delayed.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
With our luck I hope it don’t end up a upper south event.
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Unfortunately for you and everyone north of Macon, I hope this ends up a Birmingham to ATL event on into the W half of NC. I want to see something this year at least.

SoutheastRidge said:
For days people were talking about the March 3-5 period. Has that now changed to Mar 6-10? Seems like the period keeps being delayed.
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No it hasn't. It's still the same period.
 
This is definitely the kind of pattern that could produce a storm in the longer term somewhere near or south of the I-40 corridor. You want a big vortex over Atlantic or SE Canada and sheared waves running into that (high-amplitude Alaskan blocking usually corroborates w/ this pattern better than -NAO), and this is pretty much what's being modeled for now at least.

I'll definitely be legitimately interested if we can keep this look largely intact or make improvements on it over the next 3 days or so.
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Does Moines, IA is projected on the 12Z GFS for the 48 hour period of 3/3-4 to be 40-45 colder than normal (near -10), which would be significantly colder than any days of March of 1960 and way colder than any days of late Feb to March of 1980. Moreover, they’d be an amazing 30 colder than normal for the coldest normals of mid Jan!! It is projecting lows near -20, which is just about as cold as the coldest of any Dec or Mar on record. I realize this is likely overdone due to snowcover related cold bias, but even if it is 10 too cold it would still be over 30 colder than normal!
 
2 waves of precip on 12Z Euro: 1st one is an even closer miss for deep south with temps in upper 30s some places with rain from weak low that crosses S FL 3/4. 2nd is from a stronger low giving major snow part of N GA into Carolinas 3/5-6. This is more than a “not bad” look. This is a near perfect look!
 
I think the key with this run is we saw that PNA pop positive and tilt the trough neutral letting that gulf low really set its sights on the east coast
 
Right on the edge of getting screwed and glory. I know how this ends!
 
Yeah this is why I canceled March 1-5 and focused on March 6+....it’s all about the +PNA, good look but no blocking makes me question the reality of the run. This will definitely have a different look come 00z, just too drastic of a change to expect it to hold...but good to see fantasy systems for 3/6 as the ensemble patterns noted was the best chance after the first few days of March.
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Good start with the Euro, but looks like rain for the Triangle and east.
 
Long ways to go with this, just know storm chances for this time period have increased. I will personally be rooting for the timing of a wave to be more in beteen the the two waves that Storm showed on the Euro. Too early, and the storm is likely too light and suppressed. If later, like on the second wave, the confluence has a chance to lift and we rain. As usual around here always about the timing once the players are on the field.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I was hoping for the Midlands to finally get in I guess not.
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man don’t get negative on us now. You were all positive vibes this morning. Just stay positive. If it don’t happen, oh well. Spring is coming and I can hear those ocean waves already. This would be an amazing bonus considered that this Winter was dead in the water. 33° water that is.
 
That's how you get a foot of snow in the foothills of NC. Perfect track for us. Too bad it will not hold...
 
Jon said:
Yeah this is why I canceled March 1-5 and focused on March 6+....it’s all about the +PNA, good look but no blocking makes me question the reality of the run. This will definitely have a different look come 00z, just too drastic of a change to expect it to hold...but good to see fantasy systems for 3/6 as the ensemble patterns noted was the best chance after the first few days of March.
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The PNA's contribution to SE US temperature is most significant during the heart of the winter when the waveguide is at its most mature. The later we get in February and especially March, the less the PNA actually matters for us because the wavelengths are significantly shorter at this time of the year and it's much easier to stick a trough into the western US and still end up w/ another corresponding trough in the SE US.

In Jan, the PNA alone explains roughly one-third of the variability in SE US temperatures

Screen Shot 2019-02-24 at 2.35.30 PM.png

In March, the explained variance (taking the shaded value below and squaring it) is almost zero everywhere in the southeastern US except in Florida and along the Gulf Coast.
Screen Shot 2019-02-24 at 2.35.46 PM.png
 
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