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packfan98
Moderator
FV3 has a SE storm. GFS looks too suppressed on this run.
FWIW 12z Gfs looks like it suppress the low which is good at this time frame.
Jon
Member
I don’t think we get a legit chance until March, so I feel like the lack of cold inside Day 7-8 isn’t worth worrying about. But I don’t get your second statement because you’re talking about March? Help me out here lol.
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You all are focusing on specifics WAY too much. Especially talking about TEMPERATURE? lol we have seen a 1030 high pressure trend into a 1040 high in the span of two days... no need to worry about that.. this year we just haven’t gotten the storms or storm tracks... now we finally have a storm to track that’s actually favorable for us that’s all you have to see in the models rn... no need to look at the temperature profiles 200 hours out come on guys ?
I don't agree with this at all.
snowlover91
Member
Sorry if it was a bit confusing. The first point I was making is that models have been backing off the cold some. This is what the GEFS looked like at day 10.
Now that we are 7 days out it has backed off/delayed the cold press.
The second statement I was referring to how even with a perfect storm track, if we don't have much cold to work with it won't matter... especially as we head into early March where it's much tougher to get snow without some pretty solid cold air to work with here in NC. The models backing off on the cold and delaying it is concerning because we've seen this happen a lot this winter in the extended range only to have them warm up/back off as we get inside 7 days.
My experience with March is that it can puke snow with temps above freezing. Matter of fact I can’t remember the last time it snowed here period with temps below freezing..
Snowflowxxl
Member
Excuse me? We have seen modeled HP of 1040+ all winter and they end up in the low 1030s come verification. Temperatures are by far the most important thing to look at! If temps are not cold enough, you have ZERO chance at winter.
What’s not to agree with? All year we have seen high pressures trend colder the only problem is we have CUTTERS Galore so no high pressure can deal with that. I’m saying if these don’t cut that makes there be plenty of room for cold to trend our way
Temperatures at hour 200 are useless is my point
Excellent post. The cold bias of the models, especially GEFS, has been relentless and strong. I had been hoping that cold bias would finally letup but as you're showing not yet and time is rapidly running out.
ajr
Member
I’m not sure modeled 2m temps this far out is a great stat to follow - I think the point of following models this far out is to see if the players are out on the field or not. Trends in the upper levels are what we should follow I think... I’m happy to see we have some potential after the past two months
Here are some pretty good rules to live by that are almost always true. LR modeled 2m temps are useless. Models generally have a cold bias in the LR. It's harder to get and stay cold in March than in January and February. Average temps increase pretty rapidly through March. The sun angle matters. Look for the necessary features present in order to identify a period of interest (i.e. is a storm near/south of the area? is there a high in a favorable position? etc.). If you do not have a mechanism to deliver cold air, forget it. Look for the features. If they are there, then we have a chance. That's really all you can say. Getting caught up in the details is completely pointless 7+ days out.
snowlover91
Member
The one exception is the EPS, it actually seems to be holding firm or trending colder.
Day 10 EPS
Day 7 EPS
Here's the day 7 GEFS for comparison. It will be interesting to see which one is right since the EPS is considerably colder at day 7 than the GEFS is.
You definitely right about the warmer trend on the gefs, but It could go the other way with the 12z thats coming out rn, we’ll see
Folks are going to like the slightly colder 12Z GEFS along with its 3/3-4 and 3/5-6 pretty far se tracking waves of low pressure/precip. But it is still a marginal situation at best right now and the GEFS cold bas is a real thing.
Don't shoot the messenger but this mean is literally skewed by one (only one) big dog lol
snowlover91
Member
It's interesting that the EPS has largely been holding firm with the cold while the GEFS has been backing off on it and is significantly warmer than the EPS. Inside 7 days I trust the EPS more so we will see if it wins out here with the colder look.
There are two more waves that track offshore the SE US; 3/3-4 and 3/5-6. But the cold is marginal. Most of SE not cold enough on the run's mean outside of parts of NC.
Agree
Why aren’t we hugging the reliable and been right all winter model the euro and it’s ensembles. Shows the cold getting here faster with multiple storm threats I think if it holds with 12z than we are in real business coming up
Did 0z Euro show any Wintry Wx in Southeast??
This why the mean was showing something through D8, one crazy ens member.... would love to know what perturbation caused that
Looks fairly solid to me for ensemble mean, so far. Some unfavorable trends in the pac but still a strong EPO block building poleward
The period has always been first week of March, that’s what I am looking at. Though do agree it seems these looks haven’t planned out this winter.
The period has always been first week of March, that’s what I am looking at. Though do agree it seems these looks haven’t planned out this winter.
NCCWOP9077
Member
This is the full 15 day GFS members, light years away. A few hits for the upper SE.
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I've seen this before and if we can keep that -EPO we can get cold, again would love to see a better PNA but we can work with that plus the PNA may start to "follow suit" over the next few days model runs. Give me -epo we can make it work lol
Snowman63
Member
Yes, check post #264.
snowlover91
Member
I don't think it's a good idea to hug any one specific model or ensemble group. The GEFS and EPS are a bit different with how they handle the 5h features. The theme this winter has been to show cold that doesn't verifiy and modifies as we get inside 7 days which lends some credence to the GEFS idea. However, the EPS is generally a better model suite inside 7 days so it's hard to know which one to trust right now. The key will be watching future trends to see if the EPS backs off on the cold or if it holds and the GEFS shifts colder.
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The way I'm seeing this pattern: the -EPO is providing very cold well to our NW but the +PNA is important to actually deliver it far enough SE to actually get it here with enough vigor. That's why the correlation to SE cold is higher with a +PNA than with a -EPO. Both would be best. But if only one or other, I prefer +PNA per stats. of old/winter storms. The cold source without the delivery mechanism is often useless.
NCSNOW
Member
FV3 has a little something
The Canadian looks alot like the fv3 at this time period. GFS has 1030 HP but futher north and LP is across eastern SC/NC ( west /inland of Wilmington).
Canadian:
FV3 next frame after one you posted earlier:
You're probably correct I'm sure and not like I have anything to really back it up lol... just seems we had something similar to this last year or other Winters and the -epo delivered, not sure if it was a precursor and the PNA joined the party or if it was an extremely strong epo patten (now that I think of it, it was some extremely negative epo, off the charts type of stuff I think)
Tarheelwx
Member
Look on the bright side, with the FV3 we’ll be tracking threats through late June!
TW
TW
What's not to agree with? You're ignoring the cold bias of the models through the entire winter averaged out, especially GEFS. You don't want to believe it because you don't like it. That doesn't at all mean it can't be different this time, especially with the seasonal shortening of average H5 wavelengths as we get into March. But still, there's nothing wrong with acknowledging the very persistent and strong model cold bias. The goal of my posts is to be as realistic as possible rather than be a pessimist nor an optimist. That helps credibility.
Most of the time we in the upper SE score from a -EPO with a messy mix bag/Miller B, high pressure sliding in from Montana/ND than moves towards the NE then get a 50/50 low to setup up at/around Newfoundland and we get a classical CAD, I try to find H5 for these storms these past few years but I never seem to so idk about the PNA part