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Wintry Feb 19-20 Possible Front-End Snow/Ice Thump

Not sure how some folks can speak in absolute terms with this. We are seeing frozen precip already in places that were not forecasted to really get any. The models can be off both ways when it comes to winter precip here. We have seen it both ways plenty of times.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Precipitation during large-scale overrunning events like this where warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is gliding up isentropic surfaces (areas of equal temperature) (i.e. isentropic upglide) is usually more widespread & intense than forecast especially on the northern fringes of where its forecast to occur and its not uncommon to see extra sleet or snow (if it's cold enough) on the front-end.
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Also the band if anyone is watching on radar is not weakening at all ... theres even redevelopment happening near Atlanta and precip rates have looked good too
 

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Nick_boynton_ said:
Also the band if anyone is watching on radar is not weakening at all ... theres even redevelopment happening near Atlanta and precip rates have looked good too
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Keep in mind the reflectivity you're seeing on radar in this case isn't entirely related to precipitation rate, some of the higher values (esp when you're using composite reflectivity that takes the highest dBz value in the entire layer being sampled) are attributable to melting hydrometeors (i.e. sleet) near the ground and/or melting snowflake aggregates aloft.
 
Even FFC said in their midnight update they expected the band to fall apart overnight as models didn't show it lasting... it did the opposite lol. The morning AFD mentioned that it never really died out as forecast thus all the sleet reports across North GA throughout the night and morning. Crazy stuff...this is what makes the weather so dang interesting though.
 
CAD starting to commence

pmsl.gif
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Real timeView attachment 15963
Hrrr initialization.

View attachment 15964


Very close
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Duh, the HRRR is supposed to be close to reality at initialization but the point you're clearly missing here is that the 2-3 hour forecasts this poster is referring to were in fact pretty abysmal w/ this band of precipitation.

9z HRRR 3 hr forecast was a joke.
refcmp.us_se (1).png


Reality:

refcmp.us_se (4).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Duh, the HRRR is supposed to be close to reality at initialization but the point you're clearly missing here is that the 2-3 hour forecasts this poster is referring to were in fact pretty abysmal w/ this band of precipitation.

9z HRRR 3 hr forecast was a joke.
View attachment 15967


Reality:

View attachment 15968
Click to expand...

Hrrr this winter has been ---- lol, has done bad with CADs and moisture
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, can see it with 925mb analysis View attachment 15970
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Notice how much stronger the CAD has become esp in NE GA & upstate SC following this band of precipitation, that's not a coincidence as many of these areas cool to their wet bulb temperature leading to surface MSLP rises. This is effectively the in-situ contribution to this CAD dome
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
What is still crazy to me is the models haven’t picked up on this band of precip that’s still moving in ... they don’t have widespread precip like that over spreading until later this afternoon... biggest wildcard imo
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Here was his first post that I commented on.

Clearly the hrrr initialized with the band so it is picking it up.

Lol
 
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