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Severe Flooding 2/18-21, 2019

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Well looks like I'll be making a trip to Lowe's tomorrow. Got to get some work done to try to keep water out of my garage/basement. I start taking on water when I get an inch of rain. I hate to think about what 6in+ will do!
 
Some of the maps yesterday were for the entire model run ending 3/3. These posted today are ending 2/25. Maybe the reason why you see a substantial drop in totals. I think the overall picture here regardless of the totals modeled & knowing they’re estimated totals, the end of the day a lot of us are going to get a crap ton of rain! I don’t need another 3” but sadly I’m hoping that’s what I get compared to the 7”-10” showing!
 
Atlanta would dodge any issues with the Euro solutions. While 3.5 inches is a good chunk of rain, it's nothing crazy or unusual.
 
Another uptick by both the WPC and our local NWS office. Ominous enough as is, and what makes it worse is this is coming in with already saturated soils and elevated river/creek levels.

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Man that’s a lot of rainfall. Especially for those of us near the Flint River. Are they still saying Tuesday night into Wednesday, and is it severe or just flooding rain? Sorry to jam so many questions in but damn this makes me nervous.
 
Pup12 said:
Man that’s a lot of rainfall. Especially for those of us near the Flint River. Are they still saying Tuesday night into Wednesday, and is it severe or just flooding rain? Sorry to jam so many questions in but damn this makes me nervous.
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Probably just flooding rain. The big issue will be the summation of the whole period and not like summer when you see areas getting huge rains in an hour or 2. Over the next 7 days there may be 5 pulses of rain each producing 1-3 inches over a large area, combine that with what is climo highest water table of the year and there is a lot of run off that creates stream and river flooding.

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SD said:
Probably just flooding rain. The big issue will be the summation of the whole period and not like summer when you see areas getting huge rains in an hour or 2. Over the next 7 days there may be 5 pulses of rain each producing 1-3 inches over a large area, combine that with what is climo highest water table of the year and there is a lot of run off that creates stream and river flooding.

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Thank you
 
Projected rainfall totals across the Memphis/Midsouth region have increased on the 0Z Euro through day 10.
 
Chattanooga could be in trouble as the surrounding area. Chickamuga Creek is already suppose to crest at 15 ft tomorrow at 4pm and that’s not including any rain we get tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday could be very bad for people in East Brainerd, East Ridge and Brainerd.
 
WPC has expanded the heavy rain area north and west. Tennessee River Valley all the way to Kentucky Lake, lookout!
 
tuckermcclendon said:
Looks like this might be lifting to the north a bit and we could see decreased rain totals.
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You can almost always count on that to happen....just like with the “snow events” we have. Models love to overdo qpf and cold in the medium/long range. And they also like to produce this east-west axis of heaviest precip that inevitably ends up oriented SW-NE, and usually (for at least part of the axis) ends up farther north than initially progged.
 
Huge swath of 3-10" plus rainfall from Louisiana to West Virginia this week. A lot of this area had saturated soil already. By this time next week we may be seeing some dramatic flooding situations unfolding somewhere.
 
I’m cutting my rain totals by about 8”. Keeps trending dryer. Which is a good thing. Still going to flood but moreso west of the blue ridge.
 
50 Miles either side of I-40 from Memphis to Nashville looks like the ground zero. Interesting how this heavy rain event has trended north and west the last several days.
 
DarkKnight said:
Well I am glad the totals went down. It isn’t going to take much if the saturated ground to cause issues.

So would we call this a bust?? Looking like a 2-5 inch rain for most.View attachment 15951
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Not sure it's a bust. If you consider the rain that has fallen the last few days and add to the totals yet to come we are still relatively close to the 10 day rain amounts of mid month. for once if it does bust completely I wouldn't mind.
 
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