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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh90-96 (1).gifPrecip still there, just temp issue on this run. I wouldn't worry about it.
 
packfan98 said:
The 18z GEFS looks drier than the 12z by about a 1/10th of an inch of qpf across most areas. Not a trend you want to see. Hopefully future runs will beef back up. Those of you with access to the individual members, I'm curious if any develop a low with enhanced precip similar to the Euro. If that doesn't happen, the moisture could be limited and we may see further reduction in totals in future runs.
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Every run will shift back n forth for sure. I'm leaning towards a blend between Euro/Gfs, which should a decent hit for many.
 
Yeah the 18z gefs is much drier 12z vs 18z
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if The 00z guidance/ensembles comes in drier than I’ll get worried, but anyways a few of the gefs ensembles wanted to develop a southern slider looking storm after this one, most were suppressed and a few show a far northern solution
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah the 18z gefs is much drier 12z vs 18z
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I'm with you on totals, I think widespread 1-2 will be likely. Although, if Euro is right I can see a big deal.
 
I know it's early and the models can change but I hope someway somehow the models can trend better and catch us all off guard and give us all here in the south our first legit snowstorm board wide... I feel like we all are beyond over do of a large snowstorm sorry if this is banter guys
 
I gotta say this tho, the euro may be showing heavier precip due to its better resolution and the fact that I may pick up convective/mesoscale banding, steep lapse rates aloft/amount of lift in the DGZ, and the amount of forcing, and a better resolution can help show that
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Im getting to the point as to where if I see a flake it will be considered a win.
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We always have to take what we can get. I still feel confident in this being a legit event here, more legit than anything we've had modeled so far this Winter imo.

EDIT: It's kinda weird the EURO is considered the best case scenario as of right now for most of us. That's probably what's fueling some of my confidence also.
 
18z Euro with MLSP trends

With the piece of energy up in the lakes and it's surface low you do have a nice piece of energy in the deep south and trying hard to be separate slp. HP nosing in better of TN/KY.

9-km ECMWF Global 00z_12z 3-Hourly United States 6-h Precipitation 90 (1).png9-km ECMWF Global 00z_12z 3-Hourly United States Snowfall 90.png

9-km ECMWF Global 00z_12z 3-Hourly United States 500 hPa Rel Vorticity 90 (1).pngEPS_MSLP.gif
 
campamy said:
When I was trying to figure out Kuchera last year I think I read somewhere that it's inflated and not all mets agree on it's accuracy. Can't find where I read that though. Does anyone have a good site or explanation/findings on its accuracy?
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all mets don't agree on much of anything..lol..but instead of using 10:1, no matter what the setup is, it more accurately reflects what the ratio should be taking into account the temps the snow is falling through.
 
from firsthand weather: the snow rates should exceed melting and the best chance for accumulations will across northern & central Mississippi, Tennessee, northern & central Alabama, northern Louisiana and northern Georgia (see Fig. 3). At this point, it appears some areas may see 1-4″. This will impact travel, especially for areas that see snow fall pre-dawn on Tuesday. firsthandwx.png
 
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Stormlover said:
from firsthand weather: the snow rates should exceed melting and the best chance for accumulations will across northern & central Mississippi, Tennessee, northern & central Alabama, northern Louisiana and northern Georgia (see Fig. 3). At this point, it appears some areas may see 1-4″. This will impact travel, especially for areas that see snow fall pre-dawn on Tuesday. View attachment 13349
View attachment 13349
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Nice map. Are both maps the same?
 
FROM NWS BMX @0429 THIS AM

THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST, AND THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WEST-SOUTHWEST 850-500MB SHOULD
RESULT IN QUALITY MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND POST-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT WITH THE AID OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX. OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WHICH MAY FEATURE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ON
TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THE ECMWF MAY
BE PLACING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON DIGGING THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF
THE TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE NEUTRAL TILT AS THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA AND LESS OVERLAP OF COLD AIR WITH
PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THE POSITIVELY-TILTED AND
SNOWIER GFS SOLUTION IS FAVORED, AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 20S. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
 
Snowflowxxl said:
How often do yall usually see snow down in Louisiana??
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Accumulating snow? First time I saw any was in January '02. Here's a list of the other times it's occurred IMBY.
December '08
December '09
February '10
January '14 (twice)
December '17
January '18

And that's it. I graduated from college in Jackson, MS, where snow or ice occurred in some form or other at least once each winter. So when we get snow that sticks I get excited. Everything shuts down too, because of how rare it is. Anyway, don't want to wander off topic. Suffice it to say, I get giddy when the chance for snow is great enough to put it on the NWS graphics (even if Jackson is a 2.5 hr drive from home).
 
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