Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

[ForsythSnow]

The last one is going downhill and it's getting more attention now, so here we go.

 

[packfan98]

Here's the current Euro:

 

[Stormlover]

From meteorlogist Brad Travis in Huntsville, finally getting up for this:
Our First Level 3 on the Snowmeter for Tuesday January 29th. "Something to watch" It's trending in the right direction if you want snow

 

[Stormlover]

I'll add the Canadian in for this event: (P.S/ This thread should be for the 29th, at least for the western areas on this board).

 

[Brick Tamland]

I'll add the Canadian in for this event: (P.S/ This thread should be for the 29th, at least for the western areas on this board).
View attachment 12626

Yeah, could we just change the title to Jan 29-30 Winter Storm Threat?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yeah, could we just change the title to Jan 29-30 Winter Storm Threat?

Since they are two different systems, it wouldn't work. I already made a thread for that system earlier.

 

[Parker]

Substantial increase on the GEFS for this system.

12z


18z

 

[STORM6]

This looks more realistic than threat this weekend.

 

[WxWatch]

18z FV3, the front stalls, overrunning event. If that front stalls, there would be a good amount of frozen precip. Just one of the solutions.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

18z FV3, the front stalls, overrunning event. If that front stalls, there would be a good amount of frozen precip. Just one of the solutions.

Wow hopefully we can get some consistent but I bet another solution for 0z.

 

[Webberweather53]

Would be nice to actually get a legitimate threat inside 7 days for once but that's apparently asking for too much out of this pattern

 

[CyclonicFury]

18z FV3 looks awesome for a lot of members on this board.

 

[WxWatch]

Wow hopefully we can get some consistent but I bet another solution for 0z.

Yeah, the FV3 is the only model that shows that solution. Of course, if other models come on board with that solution, the chances of that solution has a better chance at verifying.

 

[Round Oak Weather]

18z FV3 looks awesome for a lot of members on this board. View attachment 12660

That would be a frontal storm that taps the gulf so their wouldn’t be much of a north west trend would there?

 

[WxWatch]

Would be nice to actually get a legitimate threat inside 7 days for once but that's apparently asking for too much out of this pattern

You're not kidding about that one bit. The pattern is going to be active due to the expected upper long wave trough over much of the 48. Models will not handle things well with short waves pushing through the upper long wave trough. So, anything beyond 6 - 7 days, I'd toss it. 500mb charts will be a mess beyond 5 days.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
708 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Otherwise, the next cold front looks to arrive on Tuesday. The ECMWF
is currently more bullish with QPF as compared to the GFS. Thermal
profiles would be supportive of some snow potential; however, this
remains a week out, so there is plenty of time to refine details
over the coming days.

Temperatures will be several degrees below normal for late week
before moderating back toward normal by Sunday into Monday.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...FC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

[Snownut]

This timeframe has much more potential than this weekend.

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[Cary_Snow95]

Others have mentioned this in the past but the FV3s solution is my favorite. 3-5 inches of snow with an artic blast right behind it. Holds snow around for days before any melting. Shows high around 28 for central NC with snow coming down in the middle of the afternoon

 

[Brick Tamland]

18z FV3 looks awesome for a lot of members on this board. View attachment 12660

Hope it is onto something. Just wish these storms would actually keep showing on the models for more than one day once we get inside 7 days. Maybe this is the one.

 

[WxWatch]

18z GFS, I'm just wondering if that peice of energy will speed up and it spins up a low on the tail end of the front. Possibility, but not guaranteed. Too much uncertainty at this time to figure out what solution has a better chance at verifying.

 

[Philstorm91]

So after the winter weather chances tomorrow and this weekend have diminished, it is encouraging to see the model trends for the storm to end the month. I am awaiting the model packages to come in tonight and tomorrow before getting too excited though.

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[Storm5]

Yummy

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[Snowfan]

ICON has something for the Mid-South.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Stormlover]

Yet another model joins the parade!

 

[Storm5]

Just need the energy to hold together a little linger and get out ahead of the next PV push


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[Stormlover]

ICON has 2 degrees here after the snow

 

[Snowfan]

ICON has 2 degrees here after the snow
View attachment 12686

And I thought the ICON had a warm bias.

 

[campamy]

This one is already getting attention from local mets here and I've seen a bunch of FB posts about it too.

 

[accu35]

This one is already getting attention from local mets here and I've seen a bunch of FB posts about it too.

Good to see you on here

 

[Storm5]

If only this could stay consolidated

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[Cary_Snow95]

This GFS run is a nod towards the 18z FV3

 

[WxWatch]

0z GFS, it's way different than it's 18z run. There maybe a low developing on the tail end of this run.

 

[deltadog03]

GFS gonna try

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Snowfan]

 

[deltadog03]

It tried but poof

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The constant theme of depositing energy into the SW and then it tugging and flattening out waves has been aggravating to say the least

 

[Snowfan]

It tried but poof

But it did give snow to MS, TN, Central AL, and parts of North Georgia.

 

[accu35]

It tried but poof

So we need a low at the tail end to moist it up? Or more of a consolidated?