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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

One more question is anyone concerned by lack of cold air?


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Jessy89 said:
One more question is anyone concerned by lack of cold air?


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Serious question: Are you going back and reading post? Do you even read all of the post, have you figured out those that really know what they are talking about and make sure you read those post? @Rain Cold made a great post earlier this morning about several different ways we could get cold air for this system or none at all, valuable stuff..... worth the read
 
Let's just keep tossing storms we focus on for the next storm 10 days out then restart the process over and over again. Spring will be here in no time then.
 
Anyone know of any decent comparisons between this potential storm and the 2/12/10 storm? I know models had it suppressed but how far out was it suppressed on models? and also, more importantly, how much of a issue was temperatures leading up to that storm? Because in Columbia, I don't ever remember that being an issue. I remember them saying it could briefly start as rain and then go to snow but it started as snow and ended as snow.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
How about we just rename the 1/26-1/28 storm thread for the storm CMC is showing at 204hr. Then when that fails we will rename that one for our first dud we track in 2020?
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No. We will create a new one. New storm new thread. If this one has legs too we will make a second thread and have 2 storm threads. The prophecy states that LOL. We gotta keep to our word we spoke of.
 
Robert West said:
Anyone know of any decent comparisons between this potential storm and the 2/12/10 storm? I know models had it suppressed but how far out was it suppressed on models? and also, more importantly, how much of a issue was temperatures leading up to that storm? Because in Columbia, I don't ever remember that being an issue. I remember them saying it could briefly start as rain and then go to snow but it started as snow and ended as snow.
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Here is 500mb from 2/12/10 and the Euros projected look.
 

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Robert West said:
Anyone know of any decent comparisons between this potential storm and the 2/12/10 storm? I know models had it suppressed but how far out was it suppressed on models? and also, more importantly, how much of a issue was temperatures leading up to that storm? Because in Columbia, I don't ever remember that being an issue. I remember them saying it could briefly start as rain and then go to snow but it started as snow and ended as snow.
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I would love to see the H5 look, because it'd give me a good idea how similar it is, I've looked at reanalysis maps for that storm (and many storms), but not an H5 map.

Can't look at surface temps when there is no precip though. 850s are fine, and if they were torching, then there would be a problem. I honestly think in that silly hypothetical world where there ended up being no storm back then, we probably would've stayed in the 40s. Shoot I've looked at the hourly history for then, and I was at 37 when precip was just starting. I remember looking up one minute and there was a mix, then looking up a few minutes later and snow started.

Edit: dang, based off that Arcc post, both 500 mb map looks are eerily similar look wise, dun dun dun. If we get a 2/12/10 like storm, I'm perfectly fine with the next look working out for the midsouth, then would be OK if winter didn't work out after that.
 
If most of us swing and miss on both the weekend look and late next week's look, which both are pretty good, this was just not our winter at all outside that one big one for NC.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Pics ?
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GeorgiaGirl said:
I would love to see the H5 look, because it'd give me a good idea how similar it is, I've looked at reanalysis maps for that storm (and many storms), but not an H5 map.

Can't look at surface temps when there is no precip though. 850s are fine, and if they were torching, then there would be a problem. I honestly think in that silly hypothetical world where there ended up being no storm back then, we probably would've stayed in the 40s. Shoot I've looked at the hourly history for then, and I was at 37 when precip was just starting. I remember looking up one minute and there was a mix, then looking up a few minutes later and snow started.

Edit: dang, based off that Arcc post, both 500 mb map looks are eerily similar look wise, dun dun dun. If we get a 2/12/10 like storm, I'm perfectly fine with the next look working out for the midsouth, then would be OK if winter didn't work out after that.
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Yeh I remember it was 40 degrees when snow started falling, temps dropped fast after that. Great storm.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Man I was reading PBP and everyone was all excited and then I saw where you posted this and I spit my boneless jerk chicken wings out laughing
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I mean it is true. It's crazy such a solution arose and I was pretty much the guy who showed up to the pot luck with a lopsided fruitcake.
gfs_mslpa_us_25.png
 
Loaded! Ripe! Table setter! Right where we want it ! Pattern change!
 
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