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Pattern Jammin' January

Meteorologist1999 said:
That’s not banter just by saying Euro look good. Listen I don’t come on here to argue with grown people I’m just here to learn and ask questions so please carry on with that mess.
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I’m not trying to argue, go read RC post a few days back, you will see what I am trying to say. Relax


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packfan98 said:
I just looked at the GEFS and EPS and there is no strong signal for snow for the next 10 days for the majority of the SE. Which ensembles are you referring to?
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It’s too chaotic for specifics. I thought 6Z GFS looked good! Can’t get caught up in the chaos. I also think nothing good is going to start , snow and cold wise, until 1st week in Feb now!
 
Here we go we continue to push back everything wintry for southeast. Looks like to me the models are very telling outside the mountains no southeast snow in January


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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_29.png
23rd system
 
Well, if there will be anything in the 01/24 - 01/25 window, the models will catch onto it more clearly. Because, those days are almost in the 7 day window. In the mean time, there will be swings on the models up until we start to see solid consistency with a solution.
 
Brick Tamland said:
So how long do we hold on to the ensembles showing snow but all of the ops showing rain for NC? You would think if the ensembles are right at least one op would be showing snow here next week like the ensembles are.
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packfan98 said:
I just looked at the GEFS and EPS and there is no strong signal for snow for the next 10 days for the majority of the SE. Which ensembles are you referring to?
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Well, it keeps getting pushed further down the road, but at least the GEFS is still showing snow by the end of the month, and the ops continue to show rain for NC.

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Brick Tamland said:
Well, it keeps getting pushed further down the road, but at least the GEFS is still showing snow by the end of the month, and the ops continue to show rain for NC.

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Again the pattern has changed and the first evidence for you directly will be when you leave the house Monday morning and you are freezing your ass off. Again , just because systems are not giving you snow does not mean things are being pushed back


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Storm5 said:
Again the pattern has changed and the first evidence for you directly will be when you leave the house Monday morning and you are freezing your ass off. Again , just because systems are not giving you snow does not mean things are being pushed back


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The storms themselves are being pushed back, or maybe I should say storms that were showing up before are now rain. So, it is taking longer for storms to show up, at least on the op runs. Hopefully, the ensembles are correct and the ops will start to show them soon and we will have an actual storm to track before the end of the month. The pattern might be coming along, but we still want it to produce winter storms, or it is a waste. When I talk of things being pushed back, I speak of the actual storms showing up to track.
 
Pattern has already Changed; 5 days in a row below normal at Greensboro;

-6
-6
-4
-6
-4

The days preceding this since Jan1 where all well above normal. So to me the pattern flipped January 10th. We have a few days coming up that may get 2 to 4 above normal possibly with rain, Then Monday will be much BN.
 
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