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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Praying that either the 23rd-25th is golden or the storm on the 20th trends better. It seems a bit greedy and gambling a bit but I'm not going to pull the trigger on going up to family unless the storm gets to where it's a 4"+ type snow, and I won't at all if the 23rd-25th becomes golden for me.
 
DarkKnight said:
Isn’t what this pattern change is all about??? All the signs are there.
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I hope that’s what the pattern change is all about. The first portion of it, for the storm(s) the week of the 20th, is the familiar pattern that has shown up from time to time over the last several years. It leads to Miller Bs and slop or ice, especially over the eastern SE. places like TN, northern MS/AL/GA and upstate SC into western NC and much of VA should be licking their chops once again. For much of middle GA, most of SC and the eastern half of NC, it’s not a snow pattern. The trough is too far west and/or the PV is too far north. It may not look like it in the LR model progs, but it will be when time gets here. We need something to press the PV south and east, which will suppress the storm track.

I am not impressed with a close call at 200+ hours out with no blocking. If it’s not already through middle FL at this lead, that’s a bad sign to me. Good blocking, different story altogether.

I’m not at all saying that the coming cold won’t be impressive between storms. It probably will. I’m also not at all saying there is no chance of a board-wife snowstorm. There is, but the eye of the needle will be small until we get a mechanism to press the PV south and east and hold it there for a little while. If/when that happens, it will greatly widen the eye.

Until such a time, if the coming cold is real, and it looks to be, then we will have winter storm threats to track. But the odds favor mixing for many. Not complaining at all, as mixy is better than the warmth we have gone through. Just hoping for a better pattern to eventually set in, as we continue to evolve through winter.

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a snow event worth mentioning. I’m optimistic about the chances this winter. Just wanting to see signs of it coming.
 
Even Glen Burns is already talking about next weekend in Atlanta.
 

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Rain Cold said:
I hope that’s what the pattern change is all about. The first portion of it, for the storm(s) the week of the 20th, is the familiar pattern that has shown up from time to time over the last several years. It leads to Miller Bs and slop or ice, especially over the eastern SE. places like TN, northern MS/AL/GA and upstate SC into western NC and much of VA should be licking their chops once again. For much of middle GA, most of SC and the eastern half of NC, it’s not a snow pattern. The trough is too far west and/or the PV is too far north. It may not look like it in the LR model progs, but it will be when time gets here. We need something to press the PV south and east, which will suppress the storm track.

I am not impressed with a close call at 200+ hours out with no blocking. If it’s not already through middle FL at this lead, that’s a bad sign to me. Good blocking, different story altogether.

I’m not at all saying that the coming cold won’t be impressive between storms. It probably will. I’m also not at all saying there is no chance of a board-wife snowstorm. There is, but the eye of the needle will be small until we get a mechanism to press the PV south and east and hold it there for a little while. If/when that happens, it will greatly widen the eye.

Until such a time, if the coming cold is real, and it looks to be, then we will have winter storm threats to track. But the odds favor mixing for many. Not complaining at all, as mixy is better than the warmth we have gone through. Just hoping for a better pattern to eventually set in, as we continue to evolve through winter.

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a snow event worth mentioning. I’m optimistic about the chances this winter. Just wanting to see signs of it coming.
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I completely agree. I'm a little more hopeful that this pattern will produce based on the nice cold nature of it, and it's longevity... but you're right, we're going to have to get lucky on timing. The ensembles aren't pushing storms south, they're way too north, and that's because everything up top is too far north already. We'll see.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Ours is coming next weekend
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If you’re into flash freezing mud puddles then yes. No chance cold air makes it over the mountain in time for us to see snow with that exact setup. I don’t care if -30’s are pushing through Knoxville headed this way. It would never in a million years make it in time ☃️?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If you’re into flash freezing mud puddles then yes. No chance cold air makes it over the mountain in time for us to see snow with that exact setup. I don’t care if -30’s are pushing through Knoxville headed this way. It would never in a million years make it in time ☃️?
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Pull for the wedge in your area
 
One year ago today our first of two 3inch plus snowstorms within a 5 day period started. It started as freezing rain FridayAM then flipped to snow around 4:30pm. Hopefully we all see this soon!!

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LMFAO! This is GSPs thoughts on next weekends pants tent, pattern change blockbuster!! All I see is above normal temps and hydro concerns even in the mountains on Saturday! So much for the apocalypse snowstorm! 9DDC644C-9643-4C1D-87F4-4AD9987FA6BC.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
LMFAO! This is GSPs thoughts on next weekends pants tent, pattern change blockbuster!! All I see is above normal temps and hydro concerns even in the mountains on Saturday! So much for the apocalypse snowstorm! View attachment 10820
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It’s exciting to see winter storms show up on LR model charts again!
 
It’s 38 right now. It’s never this cold before I’m supposed to get a winter storm. It’s usually in the upper 40s with sunshine and a nice southerly breeze. Now that I’m supposed to get rain and 34, we’ve had a full day of clouds, a slight north wind, and a max temp if 41. Brilliant.
 
cd2play said:
I thought it was Candle in the wind. And all this time I miss quoted Elton John's lyrics. LOL
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Goodby Greenland Block
Though I never knew you at all
You had the grace to show yourself
That one time in the Fall
 
CyclonicFury said:
I hope I can get a winter storm where I can just relax and enjoy several hours of snow in the 20's without having to worry about mixing or being right on the line. If we were to get a Southern Slider, it would probably end up too dry here lol.
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Agreed!!
 
Rain Cold said:
You’re optimistic today! I’m on the strugglebus after watching my Greenland block vanish like a fart in the wind. :(
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Yeah i like where we are going. Next weekend has some appeal to me if we can get the northern stream out front and stall the boundary to the south. We are down to really our last 45 days to get a big dog so it's time to go all in. Before anyone says something like one time 40 years ago it snowed 2 feet in March, I know, I just have a hard time getting behind huge storms in March

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SD said:
Yeah i like where we are going. Next weekend has some appeal to me if we can get the northern stream out front and stall the boundary to the south. We are down to really our last 45 days to get a big dog so it's time to go all in. Before anyone says something like one time 40 years ago it snowed 2 feet in March, I know, I just have a hard time getting behind huge storms in March

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Agree. And yeah, it doesn’t really snow here in March anymore. Besides, what’s better than a snowstorm storm in mid-winter, where the sun angle isn’t bad and the temps can more easily stay colder for days after?
 
Rain Cold said:
Agree. And yeah, it doesn’t really snow here in March anymore. Besides, what’s better than a snowstorm storm in mid-winter, where the sun angle isn’t bad and the temps can more easily stay colder for days after?
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I got a 3 inch snow on March 4 a few years back. Does that count?
 
Rain Cold said:
Agree. And yeah, it doesn’t really snow here in March anymore. Besides, what’s better than a snowstorm storm in mid-winter, where the sun angle isn’t bad and the temps can more easily stay colder for days after?
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Having that snow start around noon on Friday afternoon and being able to enjoy it with no concern about work? Lol. Seriously though I would just for once like to score on the front end of a 5-7 day cold shot and have it around for a few days

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