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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

SoutheastRidge said:
Wait i thought the Gamecocks won the College World Series?
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True, seemed like forever ago. Hopefully this storm gets us there. But this storm looks to set off a pattern change that can gives us Midlands folks a chance down here on down the road.
 
If anything I bet this trends to a more amplified system that ends up further north vs the December storm possibly impacting a larger area from NC to the northeast . The confluence in the NE isn’t near as strong as the early December storm so I DONT think this will trend towards a more suppressed solution .


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Storm5 said:
If anything I bet this trends to a more amplified system that ends up further north vs the December storm possibly impacting a larger area from NC to the northeast . The confluence in the NE isn’t near as strong as the early December storm so I DONT think this will trend towards a more suppressed solution .


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It could go either way. The wave could trend weaker as it is currently modeled very weak as is.

But, your thoughts are probably much realistic. The northern stream will trend weaker and the southern wave will trend slower and this will allow for more amplification.

Very small window of timing on this one, even less than December.
 
Euro definitely trending colder for now with this potential system. 850’s look colder (don’t have access atm to 2m) Verbatim rain here as shown, but with that high up there I could see ya trend even colder. Timing will be an issue possibly as well.

Another thing I like is how that airmass is Arctic in nature (spreads down into NE) and filters in for us. Some of the coldest air on our side will be there with a strong high in a pretty good spot as well. That’s a bonus. Something we didn’t have for December storm.
 
Storm5 said:
If anything I bet this trends to a more amplified system that ends up further north vs the December storm possibly impacting a larger area from NC to the northeast . The confluence in the NE isn’t near as strong as the early December storm so I DONT think this will trend towards a more suppressed solution .


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Agreed, more amped waves has been the theme past few months.

Day 5-6, ull in deep southern TX

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If this is going to work out needs to be Saturday night for best accumulation. And the low really needs to be a miller A


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Jessy89 said:
Would everything above the blue line be snow?
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Not sure if anyone answered this question for you or not, but the 0C line indicates that temps at 850mb are cold enough for snow. Of course, that means nothing if you have warm surface temperatures. It DOES NOT necessarily mean that snow will make it to the surface.
 
Jessy89 said:
If this is going to work out needs to be Saturday night for best accumulation. And the low really needs to be a miller A


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Agreed about the miller A but luckily in a nino year storms normally come in 12-18 faster than modeled.
 
Chris justice just showed the euro and gfs. But he’s not very confident in this. He said he thinks the threat will fizzle out with this.


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Jessy89 said:
Chris justice just showed the euro and gfs. But he’s not very confident in this. He said he thinks the threat will fizzle out with this.


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As many others have already said, it’s usually a step down process with areas to our north getting hit first. We will see though. That’s why we’re all here. Well, everyone except @Tarheel1. He’s just here for the free cruises
 
18z gfs seems like a little faster on the storm coming on the 11th, if we can speed this system up, better for more coverage snow?
 
well that’s different

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12z
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Edit: with or northern piece of energy. Expect a lot of changes run to run with this piece of of the puzzle. Hard to sample outside of 4-5 days
 
Heavy rain with temps in the upper 30s for many . The pattern change can’t get here fast enough
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Storm5 said:
Heavy rain with temps in the upper 30s for many . The pattern change can’t get here fast enough
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Lol! It’s the 18Z run of the model you killed off
 
Gfs at least brings the moisture back. But it’s a snow to rain solution for especially upstate sc. I do think it’s a touch to warm


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Looks like a big storm for North Carolina and north of I 85 in sc 1-3 inches before rain washes it away


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Seems as if it's going to try to head ots before hitting the NE but with this development, if things keep going, I'd think amped and warm, Mid Atlantic and Northeast gets it before places in the southeast.
 
This is almost exactly like the last big storm for us in nc! Even has the ULL that has a same exact look, crazy, just one model run tho
 
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