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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

pcbjr said:
No crystal ball here, but it's seemed since October Feb would be the month. Some maps I looked at early this morning (that I cannot share or post due to stringent subscription restrictions) look juicy. I'm personally all in for Feb (despite what my plum tree is telling me LOL) - so buckle up and we'll see :cool:
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Yep, JB said all along it would be a backend winter in the east!! I like what he's saying for Feb-March.... Don't mean he's going to be right!!! Euro weeklies he's not in total agreement says 11-18 is in disagreement with him. lol, he says GEFS is going to beat it, said 12z Euro went toward it....
A little comment from JB,

This is about as good of an ensemble run at 500 mb and 850 mb this far out. The time uncertainty limits what a model can see, but I see no reason to rout out the cold in Canada now, as the opposite of the western trough pattern that we have seen is a hallmark of this run, with a ridge in the West. The markers we have set up for the February/March idea have been reached, and we have maintained all along that this winter would be strongest in the East later in the winter. The coldest air is now on our side of the pole overall and I believe the worst of winter is yet to come from the Mississippi eastward, with Texas still a battleground and the northern Plains likely cold.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The GFS after 300 hours is sometimes just the funny farm anyway. It can pick up ideas, but you can't take it as ground truth.

And early February weirdly isn't good history wise. It's the second week and beyond that is. So we're most likely in wait mode again for about 10 days.
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Well, as long as you don't go too far beyond. I don't think the last week of Feb is that great climatologically in ATL. From what Larry has said, it seems like there's a small period in Feb that is favored per climo, which is the February 8-18 period.
 
Granted I'm not a met so my eyes are untrained...but what I am seeing on the 500 MB maps tell me there's very little chance of even rain for a while after the pattern chance.
 
pcbjr said:
LR very detailed maps that strongly suggest a lot of entrenched SE cold with moisture to work with after about the 5th through the near end of Feb with relaxation after that; good Pac ridge positioned nicely and some occasional blocking. But as I said - we'll see ... Didn't mean to start a ruckus - I can go read American if I need that gut wrench ...
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Not now , the sites down! The coldest I get this coming " cold pattern change" this weekend is 29 bone chilling degrees! Then back to 65 by Tuesday according to Glenn Burns! :( he only seems to show warm models and outlooks!? Kind of the antithesis of JB!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not now , the sites down! The coldest I get this coming " cold pattern change" this weekend is 29 bone chilling degrees! Then back to 65 by Tuesday according to Glenn Burns! :( he only seems to show warm models and outlooks!? Kind of the antithesis of JB!
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65 degrees next Tues ? NWS is showing 48 for here.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not now , the sites down! The coldest I get this coming " cold pattern change" this weekend is 29 bone chilling degrees! Then back to 65 by Tuesday according to Glenn Burns! :( he only seems to show warm models and outlooks!? Kind of the antithesis of JB!
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It's the local news weather models. I don't pay attention to them. Closest to that temperature coming up is tomorrow!
 
pcbjr said:
No crystal ball here, but it's seemed since October Feb would be the month. Some maps I looked at early this morning (that I cannot share or post due to stringent subscription restrictions) look juicy. I'm personally all in for Feb (despite what my plum tree is telling me LOL) - so buckle up and we'll see :cool:
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I use Accuweather pro and there are some model maps that I can't show. I have been showing some, but I think I'll quit posting them and just describe instead along with some hand drawn maps.

Edit: Accuweather allows me to share some modeling maps but not every thing.

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pcbjr said:
It's 18Z - Do not despair. That run is consistently like an Uncle, twice removed, who shows up at Thanksgiving, has a couple too many drinks, tells some corny jokes that makes no sense to anyone but him, and he still gets "respect" - until he leaves the room when laughter breaks out (and not at his jokes, mind you).

Inside of 4 days if the 18Z is following the OZ and 12Z, then the "Uncle" needs to be listened to. If. however, Uncle 18Z is telling jokes no one else in the family can figure out - let him leave the room and then laugh!

JMHO
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Phil,
You're also describing what Joe Bastardi years ago nicknamed the Canadian, the "Crazy Uncle"
pcbjr said:
Because they come from a private source and that is my deal with them - it's a professional courtesy and a word of honor I would never violate.
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I totally respect you for that not posting the actual maps. I don't know if you're upset, but you're too good of a poster to be driven away and you seem well-liked here by many. Regarding the WxBell stuff that is posted, my understanding is that Ryan has no problem with posting some of that stuff if I recall correctly. I think he has been asked but I could be mistaken. But describing stuff is more than enough if you'd prefer not to post imo and I realize it may not be WxBell. I've had MDA over the years and have limited it to describing what certain maps say (like the Euro weeklies) because they don't want maps to be posted too soon after they're released. I totally respect that request.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I use Accuweather pro and there are some model maps that I can't show. I have been showing some, but I think I'll quit posting them and just describe instead along with some hand drawn maps.

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Like I said - I did not want to start a ruckus. My sincere apologies. I'm an attorney. I deal with some clients. They are very, very deep into weather on levels we here don't deal with and they are certainly not "commercial" like WxBell or Accu; they are nice enough to give me access but I cannot copy or quote - I can summarize generally, but I won't any more (even though what I saw this AM early was sooooo sweet and in my too good haste wanted to share in a friendly "don't get down" fashion, folks) since it seems to cause disruption - something I refuse to be the cause of in any manner or form on this fresh and vibrant board.

Enough said by me and now back to our regularly scheduled 18Z GFS funny run ....
 
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I don't see why everyone is so down. So what we might whiff next week, it happens. I would be much more concerned if the models had the SE ridge coming back. I really like that epo ridge coming and the potential for some of the real cold that's locked in Siberia to make its way back to our side of the globe. It'll be ok it's only Jan 24th and quite a few people have seen wintry weather and some more than average. If we get to Feb 24 and nothing has happened perhaps we hit the panic button. There are quite a few years that were analogs to this one that brought the really good stuff in Feb/March, the folks that say they like Feb/March aren't totally crazy

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BIG FROSTY said:
Yep, JB said all along it would be a backend winter in the east!! I like what he's saying for Feb-March.... Don't mean he's going to be right!!! Euro weeklies he's not in total agreement says 11-18 is in disagreement with him. lol, he says GEFS is going to beat it, said 12z Euro went toward it....
A little comment from JB,

This is about as good of an ensemble run at 500 mb and 850 mb this far out. The time uncertainty limits what a model can see, but I see no reason to rout out the cold in Canada now, as the opposite of the western trough pattern that we have seen is a hallmark of this run, with a ridge in the West. The markers we have set up for the February/March idea have been reached, and we have maintained all along that this winter would be strongest in the East later in the winter. The coldest air is now on our side of the pole overall and I believe the worst of winter is yet to come from the Mississippi eastward, with Texas still a battleground and the northern Plains likely cold.
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Lol @ JB!! 3 words for us:" December to remember"
 
pcbjr said:
Like I said - I did not want to start a ruckus. My sincere apologies. I'm an attorney. I deal with some clients. They are very, very deep into weather on levels we here don't deal with and they are certainly not "commercial" like WxBell or Accu; they are nice enough to give me access but I cannot copy or quote - I can summarize generally, but I won't any more since it seems to cause disruption - something I refuse to be the cause of in any manner or form on this fresh and vibrant board.

Enough said by me and now back to our regularly scheduled 18Z GFS funny run ....
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You wasn't causing a ruckus, not at all. We're here for discussions. But, I try to stay on topic. I'm very deep into weather forecasting. I do take it seriously and not just look at the models and log off. Any way, I'll have my thought's soon on the latest modeling. Also, anyone who quits this month and moves on is a mistake in the weather forecasting field. You should never jump ahead.

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GaWx said:
Phil,
You're also describing what Joe Bastardi years ago nicknamed the Canadian, the "Crazy Uncle"


I totally respect you for that not posting the actual maps. I don't know if you're upset, but you're too good of a poster to be driven away and you seem well-liked here by many. Regarding the WxBell stuff that is posted, my understanding is that Ryan has no problem with posting some of that stuff if I recall correctly. I think he has been asked but I could be mistaken. But describing stuff is more than enough if you'd prefer not to post imo and I realize it may not be WxBell. I've had MDA over the years and have limited it to describing what certain maps say (like the Euro weeklies) because they don't want maps to be posted too soon after they're released. I totally respect that request.
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Jeeze Larry. What are you paying for that? PM me.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Lol @ JB!! 3 words for us:" December to remember"
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You see He gets miss quoted so much it's unreal!! (He DID NOT say the SE would have a December to Remember). He said much of the nation would and I think a lot did have a great December. He said back in the fall that he thought the east would have a backend winter. Now come late March we can call him out on that statement if it don't pan out!!! JMO
 
Little strat warming going on
b6bda11fbde51f3fe60d6d09d543f7b6.jpg


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I haven't seen significant snow in March in 24 years so I'm not holding my breath for March. Climo says we realistically have about 3 weeks left before spring begins.
 
This has been hyped or show or talked about for like 2-3 weeks? When do we see the effects of the strat warming
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I haven't seen significant snow in March in 24 years so I'm not holding my breath for March. Climo says we realistically have about 3 weeks left before spring begins.
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Please hold your breath longer! 18z reactions seem kind of muted? It finally cave to every other model?
 
NM! I see the 18Z dumpster fire! No clipper love and 2 rain events after that, through the end! Finally caved to every other model! I know don't look at op runs, but if it would have the " almost mega clipper bomb" we'd be up 3 or 4 pages by now! Silence is deafening
 
Tarheel1 said:
This has been hyped or show or talked about for like 2-3 weeks? When do we see the effects of the strat warming
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The models started showing warming around D16 and there is some warming and displacement occurring right now. If that holds true you may see the troposphere start to respond a bit in as little as 5-7 days with the AO heading negative then you get the EPO ridge to bump up and we see a cold pattern spreading across the US in 10-15 days
 
SD said:
The models started showing warming around D16 and there is some warming and displacement occurring right now. If that holds true you may see the troposphere start to respond a bit in as little as 5-7 days with the AO heading negative then you get the EPO ridge to bump up and we see a cold pattern spreading across the US in 10-15 days
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FWIW - Precisely. I wish I coulda posted that!

Which is Feb 3 -5 - my target date(s)
 
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The turd in the punch bowl of the whole thing is the eventual fate of the MJO. The GFS takes it through the COD before emerging back toward P8 while the Euro tries to complete the circuit going through weak P4-5....that has huge implications on the future pattern with the GFS favoring a cold central/eastern US the Euro a cold west coast/west canada
 
SD said:
The turd in the punch bowl of the whole thing is the eventual fate of the MJO. The GFS takes it through the COD before emerging back toward P8 while the Euro tries to complete the circuit going through weak P4-5....that has huge implications on the future pattern with the GFS favoring a cold central/eastern US the Euro a cold west coast/west canada
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Quite a spread there
ALL_emean_phase_full.gif
 
Alright, the 18z GFS run was a fluke IMO. Here is the problem from the 18z on why we didn't see the look like what the 12z GFS showed. It's the ridge out in the Atlantic, it's further east and it doesn't bulge to the north and west much.

Different story on the 12z EPS, the ridge is further west and it does bulge to the north and west. This would allow for the low to slow and amplify and change the track of low than what the 18z GFS is showing. From looking at the 500mb heights map from the EPS...the low should be just off of the Carolina coast(s) moving NE/NNE before heading out to sea.


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Tarheel1 said:
I think Larry has said COD was ok, as long as it was on the left side!?
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The COD can be fine but if you look at the Euro/EPS around D10 it's very similar to a P4 January MJO composite with the trough in the west. But the EPS does progress toward a better pattern by D15. All I am saying is if the MJO stays moves through P3-7 you might hear the phrase delayed but not denied.


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Tarheel1 said:
I think Larry has said COD was ok, as long as it was on the left side!?
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I have even gone further than that and have said that the left side of the circle actually has been colder overall for the SE US than everywhere else, whether inside or outside though just outside the left side also has been cold. Of course, these are just tendencies just as is the case for any one index. But this was based on looking at actual KATL temperatures (used as a rep for the SE) for every January day 1975-2014 and noting the position of the MJO for each day. It isn't a theory. It is based on what has actually taken place since the daily MJO became available. In addition, I noticed somewhat similar results for Dec and Feb though I didn't do the detailed day by day calcs for that due to lack of time.
I may do a blog post on this at some point to better explain.
Edit: I was totally surprised about the inside the circle being colder than outside. I had no idea til I looked at the actual daily results. Then I noticed a pattern and started noting not just phase but also whether inside or outside for each phase.
 
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Watch Monday AM closely. The setup looks eerily like Jan 28,2014, in which models showed nothing until 3-4 days out. Ended up with snowjam.


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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Alright, the 18z GFS run was a fluke IMO. Here is the problem from the 18z on why we didn't see the look like what the 12z GFS showed. It's the ridge out in the Atlantic, it's further east and it doesn't bulge to the north and west much.

Different story on the 12z EPS, the ridge is further west and it does bulge to the north and west. This would allow for the low to slow and amplify and change the track of low than what the 18z GFS is showing. From looking at the 500mb heights map from the EPS...the low should be just off of the Carolina coast(s) moving NE/NNE before heading out to sea.


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there is no support on the eps for a low of any kind

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GaWx said:
I have even gone further than that and have said that the left side of the circle actually has been colder overall for the SE US than everywhere else, whether inside or outside though just outside the left side also has been cold.
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Not questioning at all - just want to learn - are you saying inside the left side of the COD is colder than P8? If so, that is a very interesting tidbit to stash for future reference!
 
e5a72d3548ca82fe317bb28950851eca.jpg


60680de484a9443e61525d3dececdd78.jpg


Upper and surface maps from the 2014 snowjam. Looks similar to this weekend system.


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I would like to believe a surprise is possible, but those surprise systems aren't as likely today. This setup is frustrating though and we could see a couple subtle changes late that may lead to a small event...may. Doesn't mean it will happen, but its not impossible.

You also have Christmas 2010, but it was when I feel that models weren't as good and showed a lot of fantasy storms that were eventually backed off of. Usually today if a storm isn't showing up, it's not going to happen.
 
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