I can't honestly say as I am not good with all the differences down there with the ocean and stuff. One would assume you'd be under the gun regardless of High risk or not though looking at HRRR & NAM modeling this morning.
Speaking of the NAM, the 4KM NAM makes more sense around the CAE area. It's still a TOR threat, but it's not crazy. CAPE has raised a bit and the other parameters make sense for a 15% TOR risk/30% MOD where they have it. I would be surprised if they don't issue a TOR Watch later today for the "3rd wave" to roll around 5-7PM or so. The last HRRR run seems to keep the threat South of CAE for the most part.
Now Southern GA is another problem. Whew! Even the HRRR gets em as of the last run.