Jessy89
Member
HWRF is running
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Ominous look continues...
Alex
Member
Looking at the projected hydrographs out of RAH for NC, it looks like pretty much every major river ends up in at least minor flood stage again. That end of September lull couldn't have been more perfectly timed following Florence.
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Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
0Z HMON goes 928.5mb and 135kts 15z Wednesday
Landfall 925 MB HWRF 00Z
snowlover91
Member
HWRF gets this down to 925mb by landfall and HMON has it at 928mb.
And just like that..BOOM! Look at those cloud tops on the Northeastern side!
Is it the real thing or more of the same? Time will tell...
i wish recon would make a pass on the Northeastern eyewall right now! Guranteed Cat4 sustained surface winds in there. Maxing out the color scale!Is it the real thing or more of the same? Time will tell...
snowlover91
Member
One thing for sure, we have a closed eye now.
Hide ya kids. Hide ya wife. Sell the farm. Pinhole eye 
**STEERING MAP UPDATE**
We are going to compare the 00z and 03z Steering maps. I will post the old (0z) vs new(3z).....hint hint....the trof is having a hard time cutting into that western edge of the ridge so far** I know that will change soon though.
OLD 00Z RUN
NEW 03Z run
We are going to compare the 00z and 03z Steering maps. I will post the old (0z) vs new(3z).....hint hint....the trof is having a hard time cutting into that western edge of the ridge so far** I know that will change soon though.
OLD 00Z RUN
NEW 03Z run
Both strongest landfalls yet. HMON is an insane 165knts at 850mb which probably be higher than that 135knts it has at the surface. First Cat 5 hit ive seen.
Sheash HWRF is 163knts at 850mb right before landfall. Possibly both models showing a Cat 5 hit.
Brent
Member
wow goes down to 925 mb too on the HWRF
GravityWave
Member
A significant amount of lightning is showing up on the east/southeast side
Brent
Member
942.9 mb for the recon pass
accu35
Member
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So would that support NNW/N little longer?
That is just flat out amazing how it is exploding like this overnight. That’s just plain nasty.View attachment 6880 Hide ya kids. Hide ya wife. Sell the farm. Pinhole eye
I honestly think yes it does.
Can this thing keep intensifying like this for the next 12 hours? I mean it has to weaken at some point, right?
Alex
Member
Tops look to be cooling around the southeastern to northern side now too. Crunch time.
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Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
It’s a reach, but at this rate I don’t know that we can rule out anything sub 930mb before landfall. I just don’t see anything that could hinder Michael at this point besides the panhandle of Florida after it rips it to shreds
snowlover91
Member
136kts in SE quad at flight level.
Brent
Member
...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
Yellow Snow
Member
WarEagle22
Member
And we officially have a CAT 4....
EURO looks a bit W...or NW from previous run so far. Waiting on the better maps first.
1:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 27.7°N 86.6°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
Location: 27.7°N 86.6°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
Is it a Cat 4?
Yes. NHC track shifted west toward Pensacola.
Yes we are officially cat 4 as of now.
Yes, Michael has actually moved 1/10th of a degree west in the past couple of hours
Incredible symmetry of the CDO.
Brent
Member
Euro right over Panama City
Brent
Member
