Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

[Shawn]

Tip: When Larry posts the early UKMET lat/lon, you can look it up on Google maps.

Here is an example for the landfall point from tonight's 00z coordinates using "30.1N 84.4W" on Google maps search., 941MB:

 

[snowlover91]

Or you can view it here

 

[deltadog03]

I know I can Google it .I was just saying that sounded like a big shift west

 

[Snowflowxxl]

FV3 was a tick east this run

 

[GaWx]

That's a pretty good jump west both at coast and inland right?

Indeed, it was, Chris.

 

[stormcentral]

Satellite imagery at 1AM
Getting better organized

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: Despite being further east earlier in the run, near the latitude of 26N it gets to 86.1W.That is actually the furthest west of the last 3 runs in that area. The prior run was at 85.5W and the one before that was at 85.3W. Furthermore, as mentioned to Chris, this run was further west at US landfall. It was actually further west than the prior 3 runs. You have to go back 4 runs to have a US landfall further west than this new run:

- 0Z 10/8 run: 84.5W
- 12Z 10/7 run: 83.6W
- 0Z 10/7 run: 83.5W
- 12Z 10/6 run: 83.8W
- 0Z 10/6 run: 86.4W

 

[Arcc]

0z GEFS is pretty much lock step with the OP except for a handful of members that are faster.

 

[deltadog03]

I think recon is going to find a pretty healthy storm and one definitely strengthening. See some stronger winds west side.

 

[Arcc]

Yeah the HWRF found the good weed tonight.

120kts and 927mb at LF. An astounding 155kts at 850mb.

Edit- Even the HMON is now showing a major hurricane at LF, though a good bit less than the HWRF.

 

[accu35]

 

[GaWx]

Wow, 0Z Euro at 24 is a whopping 100 miles east of the 12Z run!

 

[deltadog03]

Wow, 0Z Euro at 24 is a whopping 100 miles east of the 12Z run!

Honestly that doesn't surprise me Larry.....That is more than likely because of the center relocation. lets see where this goes.

 

[deltadog03]

From hr 24 to hr 48 it picks up speed and strength and moves NNW into Center GOM

 

[GaWx]

From hr 24 to hr 48 it picks up speed and strength and moves NNW into Center GOM

MUCH stronger at hour 60 vs 12Z run...a beast!

All models bring down the shear to a very favorable under 10 knots over the next few days. And then you have the W Caribbeanlike 29-30C SSTs.

 

[GaWx]

After all of that, he looks like he may actually landfall a little WEST of the 12Z due to getting to the coast sooner!

 

[deltadog03]

Heading due N...or very slightly NNNNE...lol at hour 72, def. stronger and a bit quicker vs the 00z run from last night.

 

[deltadog03]

After all of that, he looks like he may actually landfall a little WEST of the 12Z due to getting to the coast sooner!

looks like its a bit faster than the 00z run last night...def stronger.

edit....The ridge looks a bit stronger on the SE coast as well this run vs the last few runs.

 

[Brent]

In other news recon almost supports a hurricane

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

the 1 am update from NHC has it hitting florida/ga and only a sliver of the cone touching bama

 

[deltadog03]

In other news recon almost supports a hurricane

I just noticed that.

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro landfall near Apalachicola again but 6 hours earlier.

 

[Brent]

 

[deltadog03]

over SGA and kicking....still looks like this run is a bit West from comparing it to the 00z run last night. trying to see about the 12z run...Larry, it appears its a little W from the 12z run as well?

 

[Brent]

Almost over water going up the SC coast

 

[deltadog03]

0Z Euro landfall near Apalachicola again but 6 hours earlier.

it did speed up a little bit. I t think the EURO is about the most southern/East I think at this point. or at least the possible track, on the southern side. GFS would obviously be the furtherest West track at this point.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Yeah Florence looked like this on the HWRF also, but we all know how that played out. I’m sure they’ve already started seeding Michael

 

[Brent]

 

[stormcentral]

Taking on that shape other storms have before before exploding into monsters Reference Maria and Irma...ughh

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

what is this steering map telling us? if it stays this way a more WNW track for a bit?

 

[Brent]

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

those cloud tops are so cold it is unreal. once he get organized it will be something to see

View attachment 6768
Taking on that shape other storms have before before exploding into monsters Reference Maria and Irma...ughh

 

[Arcc]

How do you say, "That aint good" any better than this. Maybe the HWRF isnt completely crazy.

 

[GaWx]

over SGA and kicking....still looks like this run is a bit West from comparing it to the 00z run last night. trying to see about the 12z run...Larry, it appears its a little W from the 12z run as well?

Chris,
It looks to be about the same from landfall on vs 12Z with it being about 6 hours faster. The inland track looks very similar to the last 2 Euros to me.

 

[deltadog03]

what is this steering map telling us? if it stays this way a more WNW track for a bit?

That tells me this will have a general N to NNW movement, IF** it reaches that strength. That level is for if this gets down in the 94x mb range.

 

[deltadog03]

Chris,
It looks to be about the same from landfall on vs 12Z with it being about 6 hours faster. The inland track looks very similar to the last 2 Euros to me.

Yes sir...I did notice that the heavier rain shield and the higher wind gusts, as forecasted by the doc, was a bit West this run. mainly made a bigger difference over Central GA

 

[deltadog03]

WOW! Center jumped a little NNE, under the convection, and is down to 983mb!

 

[deltadog03]

Why am I up? LOL. Recon going to make another quick pass through the center. They are definitely not flying the normal pattern at this point.

 

[deltadog03]

Current steering for our system right now at this strength...

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

if we go by this then the GOM is not favorable at all for formation