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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
The forward speed of the storm once inland is allowing it to stay strong. Similar thing happened to Hugo which allowed it to stay a hurrricane even up into Charlotte.
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Same also with Opal.. NOT saying he will be that strong.. but my concern with him staying "tight" will be the combination of the tight gradient coupled with increased risk of related tornadoes
 
BHS1975 said:
Water temps are running a bit cooler and their will be some midlevel shear as well and dry air near shore. I don’t see this one getting that strong.

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Low TCHP is the issue, but with a small, fast TC it doesnt mean as much. As far as shear goes it depends on motion. A TC moving west into 20knts of SW shear and it will get sheared. However a small TC moving NE quickly in 20knts of SW shear will nullify most of that shear.

Secondly, the farther west it goes the higher chance that dry air takes its toll, but the more it aims toward FL, that possibility drops.

As I said days ago, the more eastward it goes, the higher the chance of a stronger storm. IMHO.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
This cone is quite worrisome. Note that the TS in VA is a 50 mph one. I've never seen such a thing where it's able to maintain strength through land.
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The hurricane shields are working their magic this morning , imby! The SE trend looks to have commenced!:(
 
9517A178-7088-4285-9D03-2332462CB3BB.png JBs quality map!
 
6z FV3 still showing the more west track, but the bigger thing is it shows it still strengthening with 954mb a few hours before landfall south of Mobile. Would be an Opal clone for AL.
 
Arcc said:
Starting to get serious, 6z HWRF has landfall at 933mb and 112knts.

Normally is say it's over done, but with the globals agreeing, it needs a seriously look.
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My sister lives in Ft. Walton Beach already telling her be prepared for possible stronger storm then currently forecast. They vividly remember Opal

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Arcc said:
Starting to get serious, 6z HWRF has landfall at 933mb and 112knts.

Normally is say it's over done, but with the globals agreeing, it needs a seriously look.
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Yup....UKMET and HWRF led the pack yesterday. Looks like the rest are trying to catch up.
 
metwannabe said:
My sister lives in Ft. Walton Beach already telling her be prepared for possible stronger storm then currently forecast. They vividly remember Opal

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I hope you sister will be safe. My parents live in South GA. I'm having a difficult time getting their attention. They say " the weather man on tv says its not coming here". OMG!!!
 
Courtesy of Mike's Weather page. Shear is moving a bit north into the gulf. Still a window to intensify.....similar to Opal.

Wind_Shear-640x360.jpg
 
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Henry2326 said:
I hope you sister will be safe. My parents live in South GA. I'm having a difficult time getting their attention. They say " the weather man on tv says its not coming here". OMG!!!
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My sister has learned to listen to me over the years as a supplement to locals, we're much older now she wouldn't have done that 20 or 30 yrs ago lol

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Haven’t been on the board much this past week. Wow this will definitely have my attention this week. Needs closely monitored.
 
Basically, the difference in west vs. further east is timing. EURO is slower out off the gate at the Yuc passage, thus slowing down path through the gulf giving the high time to begin an exit. Its following the high further east.
At 00z on Wedneday 10/10, the FV3 is making landfall while the Euro is still in the middle of the gulf. Its amazing the difference of 24 hours.

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Is there really a chance for this to become a major hurricane? I have not really been following it, just thought it was going to be some rain.

Any chance of severe weather around when it comes inland?
 
12z GFS looks like it's shifted a touch east so far and is a little stronger than the last run. Most likely a little too strong but given the pressures on every model so far, the panhandle of FL and South AL do need to start worrying about a major hurricane.
 
Those in GA/SC should pay close attention to this. The GFS run was nasty all the way through inland GA/SC would face much more wind than the last situation of Florence.

I say this because of all the "crap talk" about Florence being nothing through here all over social media and people not taking Michael serious over it.
 
So what’s driving the N movement after landfall? The front coming down? If it’s slower, it goes more N, before being shunted East!
 
Brad P jinxed it yesterday! He will be eating crow, it looks like!
 
FV3 was quite a bit west of the GFS and I think a lot like Opal.

Euro should be interesting this afternoon. Going to see if I can find the UKMET.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
FV3 was quite a bit west of the GFS and I think a lot like Opal.

Euro should be interesting this afternoon. Going to see if I can find the UKMET.
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It’s been pretty far west vs other guidance . But even it’s shifted east over the last few days . The CMC is way west , but it’s horrible .

But yeah the 12z FV3 was a nasty run


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What is with the UKMET on still another run being so far right of the consensus throughout its route in the GOM (never further W than 85.5W in the middle of the GOM vs other models that are closer to 87W), which is why it landfalls in the Big Bend vs the consensus in the FL panhandle? What makes this more mysterious is that the UKMET has tended to do the opposite, be the furthest west/left with storms in the past.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 18.7N 86.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 19.5N 85.6W 1000 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 20.5N 85.4W 996 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 22.2N 85.2W 979 59
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 23.8N 85.5W 974 59
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 25.5N 85.5W 971 59
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 27.5N 85.1W 963 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 29.5N 83.7W 945 79
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 31.5N 81.8W 968 62
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 33.4N 78.9W 960 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 35.5N 75.2W 953 75
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 38.5N 69.1W 945 77
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 43.3N 59.8W 947 76

l’ll need to check the records, but this has a chance to be the latest on record major H for N FL. With those record or near record warm Gulf SSTs for so late in the season from the central Gulf all of the way to the coast (more like typical W Car Oct SSTs!) along the projected path and the projected low shear, it could happen.
 
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Shawn said:
Those in GA/SC should pay close attention to this. The GFS run was nasty all the way through inland GA/SC would face much more wind than the last situation of Florence.

I say this because of all the "crap talk" about Florence being nothing through here all over social media and people not taking Michael serious over it.
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yes, inland threat will be elevated due to angle and speed this is coming into FL/AL
 
000
WTNT64 KNHC 071653
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.


SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
 
Brent said:
that escalated quickly
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How’s the starting location of Michael, now that it’s formed, VS where models were showing it form? As this could be big in regards through it’s gulf track!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
How’s the starting location of Michael, now that it’s formed, VS where models were showing it form? As this could be big in regards through it’s gulf track!?
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FV3 has it past the passage gate at 987 pressure noon on Monday. 00z Euro has it still in the passage at weak storm. 24 hour difference in movement brings it east for landfall.

Edit: Its off the races after out of the passage.
 
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GaWx said:
What is with the UKMET on still another run being so far right of the consensus throughout its route in the GOM (never further W than 85.5W in the middle of the GOM vs other models that are closer to 87W), which is why it landfalls in the Big Bend vs the consensus in the FL panhandle? What makes this more mysterious is that the UKMET has tended to do the opposite, be the furthest west/left with storms in the past.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 18.7N 86.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 19.5N 85.6W 1000 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 20.5N 85.4W 996 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 22.2N 85.2W 979 59
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 23.8N 85.5W 974 59
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 25.5N 85.5W 971 59
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 27.5N 85.1W 963 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 29.5N 83.7W 945 79
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 31.5N 81.8W 968 62
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 33.4N 78.9W 960 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 35.5N 75.2W 953 75
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 38.5N 69.1W 945 77
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 43.3N 59.8W 947 76

l’ll need to check the records, but this has a chance to be the latest on record major H for N FL. With those record or near record warm Gulf SSTs for so late in the season from the central Gulf all of the way to the coast (more like typical W Car Oct SSTs!) along the projected path and the projected low shear, it could happen.
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I'll bet it's timing out of the passage. Can you tell if its still in the Yuc passage at noon on Monday? If so, then consistent with placement of both Euro and Icon.
 
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