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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

ForsythSnow

ForsythSnow

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Might as well start the thread since it's up to 0/40.

1. A broad low pressure area centered near the northeastern coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras is producing an extensive area of
disorganized clouds and thunderstorms over the central and western
Caribbean Sea, as well as portions of Central America. While
surface pressures are relatively low in the area, upper-level winds
are currently not favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
Environmental conditions could become less hostile by late this
weekend or early next week, and a tropical depression could form as
the system moves slowly northwestward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Might as well start the thread since it's up to 0/40.

1. A broad low pressure area centered near the northeastern coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras is producing an extensive area of
disorganized clouds and thunderstorms over the central and western
Caribbean Sea, as well as portions of Central America. While
surface pressures are relatively low in the area, upper-level winds
are currently not favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
Environmental conditions could become less hostile by late this
weekend or early next week, and a tropical depression could form as
the system moves slowly northwestward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Click to expand...
Yep all models have something now, so looking more and more likely...
 
What does "environmental conditions become less hostile" mean?
I.e. if its less shear, what is changing to cause that to happen? Movement of the high? Thanks so much! :):D:rolleyes:
 
I found 19 TCs on record since 1851 during El Nino that had genesis 10/1-10 either in the W Caribbean or the GOM. Of those, 11 landfalled in FL with 6 of those hitting in/near the Big Bend though none have done so since 1900, 1 hitting Tampa area, 3 hitting Ft. Myers area, and 1 hitting the S tip. Another 2 hit LA and 1 hit the TX/LA border. So, 14 of 19 hit the CONUS. Regarding the other 5, 3 hit the Bahamas or Turks and Caicos, 1 hit MX, and 1 died in the W Caribbean.
13 of the 19 were during weak Nino, 3 during moderate Nino, and 3 during strong Nino. So, of all during El Nino, they've been more common during weak ones similar to what we're in now.


**Edit for pcbjr and others to make feel somewhat better: Of the 14 that hit the CONUS, only 5 hit as a H (good news). I assume this is partially due to there being shear inducing El Nino in some of these cases.
Edit 2: But the bad news is that SSTs are above normal much of the GOM..so more fuel.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
I found 19 TCs on record since 1851 during El Nino that had genesis 10/1-10 either in the W Caribbean or the GOM. Of those, 11 landfalled in FL with 6 of those hitting in/near the Big Bend, 1 hitting Tampa area, 3 hitting Ft. Myers area, and 1 hitting the S tip. Another 2 hit LA and 1 hit the TX/LA border. So, 14 of 19 hit the CONUS. Regarding the other 5, 3 hit the Bahamas or Turks and Caicos, 1 hit MX, and 1 died in the W Caribbean.
13 of the 19 were during weak Nino, 3 during moderate Nino, and 3 during strong Nino. So, of all during El Nino, they've been more common during weak ones similar to what we're in now.
Of the 14 that hit the CONUS, only 5 were a H.
Click to expand...
Larry, Love ya man, but can you divine some stats that say "No way"? ... LOL
 
Up to 50%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Surface observations and satellite data indicate that an area of low
pressure is located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border
of Honduras and Nicaragua. This system is accompanied by an
extensive area of disturbed weather extending from Central America
eastward through Hispaniola. Upper-level winds are not currently
favorable for tropical cyclone formation, but environmental
conditions are forecast to become less hostile and a tropical
depression could form by late this weekend or early next week in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico as the
system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains
primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
We have 97E in the pacific close by so probably gotta wait til that moves out.


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nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png
FWIW, which ain't much in the long range.
 
0Z UKMET FL panhandle into SE AL and then west central GA: way right of 24 hours ago; nearly identical to 0Z CMC;
pressure at hour 144 of 979 mb looks funky since that's well inland


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.9N 86.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 36 17.9N 86.9W 1005 27
0000UTC 07.10.2018 48 18.7N 86.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 07.10.2018 60 19.9N 87.2W 1003 35
0000UTC 08.10.2018 72 20.3N 87.1W 1001 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 84 21.6N 88.4W 1001 35
0000UTC 09.10.2018 96 22.4N 88.4W 1000 33
1200UTC 09.10.2018 108 23.9N 88.6W 999 37
0000UTC 10.10.2018 120 26.0N 88.3W 997 37
1200UTC 10.10.2018 132 28.9N 87.0W 990 49
0000UTC 11.10.2018 144 32.0N 85.2W 979 36
 
JMA fwiw is still east of the consensus; 20N, 83W at hour 72; still weak
 
0Z GEFS 21 members: still quite busy and much more active than GFS

FL: 7 TS+ hits 10/11-14; 4 H (2 Apalach., Pan City, Big Bend) 3 TS (Tampa, Pensacola, Big Bend)

AL: 1 H 10/11

E LA: 1 TS 10/13

E LA/MS: 1 H 10/16-7
 
An area of low pressure located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua is accompanied by an
extensive area of disturbed weather extending from Central America
eastward across Hispaniola. Although strong winds aloft are located
just to the north of this system, the upper-level environment is
expected to be conducive enough to allow for some development, and a
tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next
week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico
while the system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring
torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the
Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
Yea BHS1975 I've been thinking about this theme a lot past couple of weeks. Sitting here waiting for Fall to arrive and the past couple of months at 5H in our corner of the world the flow is stagnant and not progressive at all. We can thank the Ridge configuration in the Atlantic for bottle necking everything up. It is locked in and somewhat worrisome seeing the SER in particular firmly entrenched and no signs of loosing its grip. I want be the least bit surprised if we do get a tropical entity to spin up, crawl around the Gulf coast line for a few days. Usually this time of year anything that forms in the GOM gets picked up by a front and is off to the races pole ward. But like Florence and our other most recent named storms, the pole ward pipeline is clogged up.
 
12z models are off and the ICON stalls it out in the GOM.... seems to be the trend. Better than stalling it out over land

edit: Should add, through the end of it's run (180 hrs) stalls from Wednesday through Saturday
 
Yeah ... now lets actually get a storm and if and when, then there will be some focused point of reference; until then, it is basically model cartoons ...
 
Following along with the 12Z GFS, the 12Z GEFS is much more active than any prior run I can recall.
 
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