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Wintry Winter Mischief For Upper SE 3/12/18

Cary_Snow95 said:
Once the band actually gets into Raleigh on this run it's not as heavy though. Obviously alot of mixing so take with a pile of salt.

namconus_asnow_seus_9.png
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This is looking like my area is going to easily bust on the low side. Oh well you can't win them all.
 
Looking better and better for my area. Looks like a lot of energy with this one.
 
1300m said:
I never said that. I said accumulating snow.


I said the H5 low wouldn't track far enough south to bring in enough cold and dry air for accumulating snow outside the mountains and higher elevations (i.e. Foothills). Sorry if you're getting snookered by the NAM.
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I am not getting snookered by any model. Things are progressing just as I figured they would days ago.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I am not getting snookered by any model. Things are progressing just as I figured they would days ago.
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Yeah this is evolving into a classic surprise event for someone east of the mountains, it’s insane to see low topped super cells trying to form near coastal NC on the CAMs simultaneously in conjunction with very heavy wet snow within a span of about 100-125 miles or so.
 
1300m said:
I never said that. I said accumulating snow.


I said the H5 low wouldn't track far enough south to bring in enough cold and dry air for accumulating snow outside the mountains and higher elevations (i.e. Foothills). Sorry if you're getting snookered by the NAM.
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It is to bad it’s only the NAM’s show this. I think we have all been burned by riding the NAM’s. The 0z RGEM looks more reasonable and matches up with where RAH has the WWA’s.

The upper low track is nice though.
 
I should add, when I went out to get firewood, I could hear a little very lite sleet. So even though temps busted warm today and MBY is still 40/30, there is cold up there somewhere. Hoping someone gets smoked by a heavy band somewhere.
 
Kylo said:
It is to bad it’s only the NAM’s show this. I think we have all been burned by riding the NAM’s. The 0z RGEM looks more reasonable and matches up with where RAH has the WWA’s.

The upper low track is nice though.
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The HRRR is showomg virtually the same thing as well as the new high res Canadian model (HRDPS)
 
Webberweather53 said:
The HRRR is showomg virtually the same thing as well as the new high res Canadian model (HRDPS)
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Here’s what the ARW, NAM nest, NMMB, & NSSL versions of the WRF are showing with lagged plots (previous runs) also depicted. We must be getting “snookered” by all these high res models and the HRRR and HRDPS because they don’t differ by too terribly much. The exact timing, placement, & amplitude of the snow varies amongst each of these HREF members and the HRRR, but the NAM’s solution isn’t all that different or crazy in a general sense.
7E31CDAB-9C98-4A88-815A-62A9A14678F3.png
 
I think there will be snow that falls....probably even heavy snow for a period, but I was one of those bitter, yet curious persons that decided to follow the last Nor'easter and NYC was struggling to get snow to accumulate even with rates of 1-2" per hour so I'd be careful especially since this is falling during the day for much of NC(at least the western half). Those who have sundown on their side will probably find it easier to get some snow to stick. The ratios are going to be crap...like 6:1 ratios if even that.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I think there will be snow that falls....probably even heavy snow for a period, but I was one of those bitter, yet curious persons that decided to follow the last Nor'easter and NYC was struggling to get snow to accumulate even with rates of 1-2" per hour so I'd be careful especially since this is falling during the day for much of NC(at least the western half). Those who have sundown on their side will probably find it easier to get some snow to stick. The ratios are going to be crap...like 6:1 ratios if even that.
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Yeah its pretty tough to get accumulating snow in the daytime in Mid March when temps are above freezing. It better be snowing at insane rate for it to stick.
 
Most Triad county schools are closed. I think there's too many unknowns at this point. It's going to snow hard and begin to pile up somewhere for a short period of time. Some school systems have already caught lots of flack earlier in the year when they didn't dismiss in time. Better safe than sorry, but I'm sure some will complain that they cancelled schools because it rained.
 
Big bust for Roanoke VA! Calling for 3-5”, based on radar and live coverage, not even a dusting!
 
This should be interesting. All of the models have the dynamic lift and area of greatest snowfall in the southern part of the Triad. Here's a recap of the current modeling. The maps show 10:1 which won't happen, but you can see the similarity.
09z hrrr
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

nam 3k
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

12k nam
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

RGEM
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

GFS
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

I don't have the Euro, but I saw where it had a widespread area of 4+ inches over the Triad.
 
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