Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

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Arcc said:
Considering that the only good snow (~3") not counting the small snow in Jan last year, the only snow worth mentioning in that time frame for me is 2/12/10. The rest of the snows happened before or after those dates. Thus waiting until that period is a valid worry.
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You didnt get any snow in late Jan 2014?
 
Sorry for always bringing up sun angle but it has screwed me so many times over the years. The last time I saw any meaningful snow in Georgia after Feb 15 was 25 years ago. 25 years is a long time. Yeah we have had a little here or there in early March. 2009 and 2010 come to mind but it didnt amount to more than a dusting.
 
Arcc said:
Considering that the only good snow (~3") not counting the small snow in Jan last year, the only snow worth mentioning in that time frame for me is 2/12/10. The rest of the snows happened before or after those dates. Thus waiting until that period is a valid worry.
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One year sample size in a crappy winter like last years isn’t exactly a good comparison. There’s just too much whining about December and people don’t realize, no matter what happened last year or the year before that or the year before that, December snows are rare for a reason.


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Tarheel1 said:
It’s a scary proposition to hold out till Mid January to mid February, for all your winter action, or you could end up with a torch last half of Jan and all of February, like last winter , and keep looking 15 days out for hope, and then you get a miserable March and April of cold rain. So I’d rather get it anytime, than waiting for the back load
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I’m a statistical and probabilities type of guy. Waiting for the climatological favored time period for snow in the SE isn’t waiting at all, it’s the best time for it. Getting a cold December and not getting an event, then torching Jan or Feb....and your winter is toast in no time. You don’t usually have much time in March to hope for something else.


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Jon said:
One year sample size in a crappy winter like last years isn’t exactly a good comparison. There’s just too much whining about December and people don’t realize, no matter what happened last year or the year before that or the year before that, December snows are rare for a reason.


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I just dont get why Dec snows are so rare. Dec is colder and usually has just as much precip if not more than Feb on average.
 
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Its funny that despite Jan and Feb supposedly being the best time period for snow, the 2 biggest snows I have experienced were in March 1993 and Dec 2017. So i have concluded that while it may be more likely to snow in Jan and Feb, theres a better chance of getting a big dog in Dec and March, at least along the I-20 corridor in GA.
 
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Storm5 said:
I don’t understand the whole waiting mentality. Snow in the south is rare enough . Who the hell cares what month it comes in ??? In the last 8 years I’ve had a true white Christmas with over 4 inches of snow on Christmas Day and many snows in Early January . Hell just last year we had snow in early December , see below



I’ll take snow at any point . Perfect patterns don’t always produce so I’m not a believer in wasted patterns . I’m not punting a month and half of winter


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We all like snow, so any time is a good time. I agree. I guess my point is to not focus on December.

For instance, since 1943 the median time frame for first to last event (for snow) is 12/29-2/15 for RDU.

Or for the Raleigh area in general, since 1886, the median is 12/26-2/20.


We usually wait until Jan anyway. Makes sense, right? Climo favored months.

Snow is rare in Birmingham, so I get our mentality. Lol.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Its funny that despite Jan and Feb supposedly being the best time period for snow, the 2 biggest snows I have experienced were in March 1993 and Dec 2017. So i have concluded that while it may be more likely to snow in Jan and Feb, theres a better chance of getting a big dog in Dec and March, at least along the I-20 corridor in GA.
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What about Jan 2011? That was a big dog for many.
 
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GaStorm said:
What about Jan 2011? That was a big dog for many.
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Yeah i had about 4" from that storm. There was also a good bit of sleet here and the staying power of the snow/sleet was tremendous. A week later there was still snow/ice on the ground. I had 10" in March 1993 and 8" in Dec 2017. Im still searching for that elusive 12" storm. I was close last year because there was a foot only 10 miles away.
 
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SoutheastRidge said:
Its funny that despite Jan and Feb supposedly being the best time period for snow, the 2 biggest snows I have experienced were in March 1993 and Dec 2017. So i have concluded that while it may be more likely to snow in Jan and Feb, theres a better chance of getting a big dog in Dec and March, at least along the I-20 corridor in GA.
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So what area are you taking about? I’d like to look at data...Most big dogs happen in Jan-Feb for a lot of areas, but there are exceptions due to sample size limitations so I’m interested.

For me, Jan 2000 and Feb 1948 are Raleigh’s big dogs.

And as far as snow, dating back to 1943, Raleigh’s average monthly is as follows:
Dec 0.7”
Jan 2.5”
Feb 2.3”
March 1”

Greensboro, dating back to 1927:
Dec 1.2”
Jan 3.2”
Feb 2.4”
March 1.5”

This pattern is similar for much of the SE.


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Jon said:
So what area are you taking about? I’d like to look at data...Most big dogs happen in Jan-Feb for a lot of areas, but there are exceptions due to sample size limitations so I’m interested.

For me, Jan 2000 and Feb 1948 are Raleigh’s big dogs.

And as far as snow, dating back to 1943, Raleigh’s average monthly is as follows:
Dec 0.7”
Jan 2.5”
Feb 2.3”
March 1”

Greensboro, dating back to 1927:
Dec 1.2”
Jan 3.2”
Feb 2.4”
March 1.5”

This pattern is similar for much of the SE.


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I was talking about for the West GA area, specifically Carrollton.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I was talking about for the West GA area, specifically Carrollton.
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March 1942 at 8.5”
Last year comes in second at 8”
Jan 1910 comes in third at 7.5”

Jan averages 2x as much snow than Dec for Carrollton (0.2” versus 0.4” respectively)

No doubt some outliers in the record given the rarity of 2.5” or greater snows for the area, but Jan is the snowiest month on average.
 
Jon said:
March 1942 at 8.5”
Last year comes in second at 8”
Jan 1910 comes in third at 7.5”

Jan averages 2x as much snow than Dec for Carrollton (0.2” versus 0.4” respectively)

No doubt some outliers in the record given the rarity of 2.5” or greater snows for the area, but Jan is the snowiest month on average.
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And what about the 10" in March 1993 ?
 
I'm just hoping to see a legit early season storm again... missed the one last year to the SE(that was hideous btw)

I hate waiting til February for something that may not even happen tbh, because it hasn't the last few years...
 
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