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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Chattownsnow said:
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they did a really good job last year with there winter forecast. Just thought I would throw this out there
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I'm not sure about that. A lot of the maps I have seen show the cold centered further south.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I'm not sure about that. A lot of the maps I have seen show the cold centered further south.
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Just because there is a further south center doesn't mean it's right. That could entirely be possible if the cores of the cold pass that far south or the dips don't go too far south. I'm more inclined to lean towards the strong cold highs going into Indiana and Ohio areas, making the difference from the average higher than further south producing a map like that. I don't buy GA, AL, and SC as well as the other SE states being the coldest from the other maps nationwide. Not sure when that has happened in a season like what we could have coming.
WXinCanton said:
Here is Allan's winter forecast:
http://raleighwxmodels.com/awhuffma/Winter/Winter2018-19Forecast.pdf
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He seems to be going for a back loaded winter with a brutally cold February, but we may torch in December. It seems that since we are headed toward a cooler period up ahead, we could very well have a warmer December at least for part of it. I'll be interested to see where we are at in a month since that will be our point we can tell if we are headed in the right direction or not.
 
ForsythSnow said:
He seems to be going for a back loaded winter with a brutally cold February, but we may torch in December. It seems that since we are headed toward a cooler period up ahead, we could very well have a warmer December at least for part of it. I'll be interested to see where we are at in a month since that will be our point we can tell if we are headed in the right direction or not.
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He also mentions the possibility of December being colder as well. Seems instead of a guaranteed torch month its a toss up for December. I agree 100% with his forecast. I think low solar will be a bigger influence than many are giving it. And it should subdue our typical "torch" December into a more mild/average December. I think we have a very solid chance of a large storm in the Eastern US in the last 10 days of December. I'm calling it.
 
I'm not going to make any guesses personally, but Augusta's snowfall total, I'm pretty sure that's going to be 0" or at least 3" in most cases. There's very, very rarely the in between of a nickel and dime event of a half inch to an inch and usually that nickel and dime event is going to just be snow TV like earlier this year.

Although I have observed a couple of times where we did wind up having a nickel and dime event. 2011 and 2016. In 2016 I was dubious then too yet woke up and a half an inch of snow was on the ground.
 
Storm5 said:
I’m not comforted by the fact the majority of forecasters are going cold and snowy for the south .


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I'm concerned that we may have to wait until February for fun and games. Many of us are very impatient if we don't see a favorable pattern on the horizon by the end of December. It may be a long couple of months of whining and complaining...
 
Back loaded winters absolutely suck. There's nothing worse than having to wait until almost spring time to get your first snow. Plus by then you have to worry about sun angle more. Give me a front loaded winter with lots of snow and cold in December and early January any day.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Back loaded winters absolutely suck. There's nothing worse than having to wait until almost spring time to get your first snow. Plus by then you have to worry about sun angle more. Give me a front loaded winter with lots of snow and cold in December and early January any day.
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Yes for Georgia I feel like February is the most active, January tends to have ice storms more, might be wrong. Winter doesn’t starts for me until Christmas since we don’t even have a chance of snow until that time period.
 
packfan98 said:
I'm concerned that we may have to wait until February for fun and games. Many of us are very impatient if we don't see a favorable pattern on the horizon by the end of December. It may be a long couple of months of whining and complaining...
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Really just a gut feeling here but seeing how October flipped overnight and some of the indications heading into December..... I'll be shocked if some of us don't have a decent winter weather threat before Christmas
 
NoSnowATL said:
Yes for Georgia I feel like February is the most active, January tends to have ice storms more, might be wrong. Winter doesn’t starts for me until Christmas since we don’t even have a chance of snow until that time period.
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Last winter says otherwise ! But yeah usually GA is more likely to get snow in Feb than Dec which absolutely sucks !
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Back loaded winters absolutely suck. There's nothing worse than having to wait until almost spring time to get your first snow. Plus by then you have to worry about sun angle more. Give me a front loaded winter with lots of snow and cold in December and early January any day.
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A backloaded winter for you is just called winter in the Carolinas :). It's rare in my opinion to get a December storm (last year was a rarity, and I didn't get much of anything in Charlotte). Anything in December is bonus. The real snow season IMO is January and February. However if we get what's advertised for mid November to crawl and keep going in December maybe this will be one of those special seasons.
 
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SnowNiner said:
A backloaded winter for you is just called winter in the Carolinas :). It's rare in my opinion to get a December storm (last year was a rarity, and I didn't get much of anything in Charlotte). Anything in December is bonus. The real snow season IMO is January and February. However if we get what's advertised for mid November to crawl and keep going in December maybe this will be one of those special seasons.
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Exactly. Don’t waste good patterns on December. Give me a spectacular pattern from Jan 15-Feb 15....people seem to get hung up over December not producing, they just don’t want to wait until peak winter for snow? Ok.
 
Jon said:
Exactly. Don’t waste good patterns on December. Give me a spectacular pattern from Jan 15-Feb 15....people seem to get hung up over December not producing, they just don’t want to wait until peak winter for snow? Ok.
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It’s a scary proposition to hold out till Mid January to mid February, for all your winter action, or you could end up with a torch last half of Jan and all of February, like last winter , and keep looking 15 days out for hope, and then you get a miserable March and April of cold rain. So I’d rather get it anytime, than waiting for the back load
 
Jon said:
Exactly. Don’t waste good patterns on December. Give me a spectacular pattern from Jan 15-Feb 15....people seem to get hung up over December not producing, they just don’t want to wait until peak winter for snow? Ok.
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Considering that the only good snow (~3") not counting the small snow in Jan last year, the only snow worth mentioning in that time frame for me is 2/12/10. The rest of the snows happened before or after those dates. Thus waiting until that period is a valid worry.
 
I don’t understand the whole waiting mentality. Snow in the south is rare enough . Who the hell cares what month it comes in ??? In the last 8 years I’ve had a true white Christmas with over 4 inches of snow on Christmas Day and many snows in Early January . Hell just last year we had snow in early December , see below



I’ll take snow at any point . Perfect patterns don’t always produce so I’m not a believer in wasted patterns . I’m not punting a month and half of winter


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