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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Snowfan, Jul 13, 2017.

  1. whamby

    whamby

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    I know it's just faulty statistical logic, but we're really overdue for a colder than normal Dec around here... I can also see something like this past Sept, where the overall month averages close to normal, but one half the month is way above and the other half way below, wild swings that is... who knows.
     
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  2. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Well, I saw the first woolly worm, of the year, and it says pack it up! Mild winter here. They have an 80% accuracy supposedly, so let's hope it was just a mistake one or that we get the 20%!
     
  3. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    Per JB [​IMG]

    Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
     
  4. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Always more snow in Pennsylvania bias lol.
     
  5. Brent

    Brent

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    *waits for my 2 inches*:rolleyes:
     
  6. accu35

    accu35

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    Aol.weather winter forecast has a weak La Nina in store for there season. Says the "Southeast" will see possible little above avg temps with very wet possible, with 2 or 3 dangerous ICE Storms potentials.
     
  7. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge

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    Hmm well my mom has been trying to get me to move to Indiana to be near her. But i notice this was published almost 2 months ago, so not sure how accurate it is.
     
  8. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    Spent 7 &1/2 years up there - different kind of winter. Totally. You'd better like cold, and if N of IndianaNoplace, you'd better really love snow with a perpetual passion ... like eternal ... ;)

    btw - you'd better love cornfields!
     
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  9. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge

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    She lives east of Indy near the OH border. Im sure winters are not THAT bad there. I can see it being a lot worse around South Bend. This will be her first winter there as she has lived in GA her entire life.
     
  10. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    SB is my point of reference (where I lived), down to Kokomo and over to Ft. Wayne ...
     
  11. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge

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    She is in Richmond and she says the locals say last winter was a piece of cake. Hardly any snow at all.
     
  12. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Almost that time of the year yet again for modeled and historical snow map fantasies (lol) & I'm hoping to get at least some bits and pieces of a preliminary version of my winter storm archive for NC released within the next several months.
    Pretty neat to see for example that the 1979 Presidents' Day snowstorm during the cool biased neutral winter of 1978-79 was not alone in central NC.
    February 6-7 1979 NC Snowmap.png

    February 9 1979 NC Snowmap.png

    February 17-19 1979 NC Snowmap.png
     
  13. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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  14. whatalife

    whatalife Moderator Supporter

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  15. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    There is no point to any winter forecasts this early ... o_O
     
  16. tractor girl

    tractor girl

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    Is Mellish forecasting specific weather and dates, or pointing to an overall trend?
     
  17. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    In addition to individual storms, I'll also be adding seasonal maps, as well as additional climatological maps...

    Strong El Nino winter of 1896-97 for example... Available station data was used as is after initial QC, data in between stations was interpolated based on all the maps for this winter and estimated to the nearest 0.5", however this should provide a reasonable, relatively high resolution, first-guess approximation of seasonal snowfall at each location in NC. Randolph, Johnston, and Nash counties were the big winners...
    Winter of 1896-97 NC Snowmap.png
     
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  18. Usmeagle2005

    Usmeagle2005

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    One day 20 years from now we will be like, wonder if we are going to have a freeze this year, won’t even be snow. We will just be hoping to see a night below 32 degrees. :)
     
  19. cd2play

    cd2play

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    Imagine what the bugs and mosquitos will be like then if that were to happen LOL
     
  20. Usmeagle2005

    Usmeagle2005

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    Like the one on Jurassic Park they got the DNA from. Lol
     
  21. Eric

    Eric

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    I did a write-up ten years ago on the December 2-3, 1896 snowstorm at AmericanWx's predecessor EasternUSWx. A fascinating snowstorm. Locations south of Charlotte received 15" of snow.
     
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  22. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter

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    ATL got a very impressive 6.2" of SN/IP 12/2/1896 with the day's high 34, day's low 28, and 0.88" liquid equiv. This was by far the main event of the winter as only another 0.1" of SN/IP fell the rest of winter. This was back in the golden era of big ATL snowstorms of the late 1800s-early 1900s when the climate was colder. This fell just before the 10th anniversary of the largest Dec SN/IP event on record there, a 7" or so SN/IP 12/3-6/1886!
    On 12/3/1896, Macon got 1.2". SAV had a very cold heavy rain. August got 1" of something with a hi/lo of 34/28 and ~2" of liquid equiv. It appears that there was a bad ZR there and at Columbia, where 3.4" of something also fell.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
  23. Eric

    Eric

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    The rain/snow line must have initially set up between Columbia and Chester, South Carolina. Chester received 15" of snow from the storm. The Charlotte newspaper noted snow accumulated in the city at the rate of an inch per hour with a temperature that remained steady at 24° throughout the storm. Winds picked up in the afternoon, such that the combination of heavy snow and strong winds reduced visibility to the point whereby, "...it was not possible to distinguish buildings a block distant." This snowstorm came on the heels of a very warm November in Charlotte. High temperatures during the week prior to the storm were in the seventies with lows in the sixties.

    December 1896 Snowfall Accumulation
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
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  24. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    Goes to show, you don't ever know; watch each card and play it slow ... wait until the deal goes down ... just sayin' ... :cool:
     
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  25. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    Don't look at the CPC, and for goodness sakes don't look at the Weeklies -- unless you like Siberia growing palm trees, and also have a 'script for the treatment of anxiety disorder ...
    It'll turn on a dime, but even then ... don't bank on anything a model is showing long term for winter until well after the 31st ...
    IMHO ... :confused:
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
  26. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Here's a more detailed map specifically for NC...
    December 2-3 1896 NC Snowmap.png
     
  27. whamby

    whamby

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    haha... found on Twitter: [​IMG]
     
  28. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    LOL who made this :p. That has to be the funniest thing someone can post.
     
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  29. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    JB will probably think it's legit and use it in his forecast lol
     
  30. AllSnowATL

    AllSnowATL

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    I bet you a December blizzard that he brings it up on his weekend summary and figures out a way to make it seem legit.
     
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