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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

A lot of posts about how amazingly hot it has been and will be and how Octobers have changed. Meanwhile this is just a textbook La Niña October.


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Usmeagle2005 said:
I knew the earth was warming but it’s scary how bad it’s getting, 80’s and 90’s are normal for October now, 70’s for Christmas. How bad is it going to be even 10 years from now? Like someone said earlier I thought it was a fluke a couple of years ago but this is 3 years in a row and it just looks the same in the forecast.
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It's going to get to the point we will be fully entrenched in the Dog Days into October. Highs in the mid 90s, lows near 80, for weeks on end.
 
Well looking like it s going to be wet and warm for the next 10 days or so... Highs 80's Lows near 70, with RW and TRW through Saturday
 
At least it is better to many than rain and 33 degrees, which many hate the most.
 
GfS/CMC are showing some cooler end of run. Maybe by end of Oct around Halloween it should get cooler
 
For the next 2 weeks or so (as far as the models go out), the 12Z GEFS and EPS remain warm dominated in the E half of the US with any cooling very shortlived.

One thing to note (not that this will have much short term effect on the overall pattern): solar activity had been much higher over the last month than in prior months, something that was not at all predictable. However, we may finally be about to go into another spotless period. We'll see.
 
GaWx said:
For the next 2 weeks or so (as far as the models go out), the 12Z GEFS and EPS remain warm dominated in the E half of the US with any cooling very shortlived.

One thing to note (not that this will have much short term effect on the overall pattern): solar activity had been much higher over the last month than in prior months, something that was not at all predictable. However, we may finally be about to go into another spotless period. We'll see.
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Not to mention we also had an X8 solar flare, which was the largest in over a decade. It seems like we may be quiet in a day or two.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not to mention we also had an X8 solar flare, which was the largest in over a decade. It seems like we may be quiet in a day or two.
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Good point about the solar flare. Wild stuff and shows how unpredictable the sun can be at least for short periods. I don't know if you noticed, but several days in early Sep. had solar flux that was the highest in two years or so! Will the sun make up for this high activity with very quiet conditions shortly?
 
GaWx said:
solar activity had been much higher over the last month than in prior months, something that was not at all predictable
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Waiting for this sort of report sometime in late December until sometime in February -- we all look at models and indices, and lock in on those, and seem to forget that there are powers we don't even begin to fathom that also drive weather; sure, I love putting the jigsaw puzzle together every season, but there are forces we haven't begun to figure out ... makes it fun ...
 
pcbjr said:
Waiting for this sort of report sometime in late December until sometime in February -- we all look at models and indices, and lock in on those, and seem to forget that there are powers we don't even begin to fathom that also drive weather; sure, I love putting the jigsaw puzzle together every season, but there are forces we haven't begun to figure out ... makes it fun ...
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Nicely said.


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ATLwxfan said:
A lot of posts about how amazingly hot it has been and will be and how Octobers have changed. Meanwhile this is just a textbook La Niña October.


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Maybe so but I can't remember the last cool October even through an El nino. It's like it doesn't matter it's just nonstop warmth nowadays
 
I’m just worried after last year because we were all saying it’s only October save it for winter then it was November and models were showing cold two weeks out (always 2 weeks out) then by middle of December huge patter change (got cold for 2 days then back to warm). Christmas was warm, and we just kept on thinking it was coming. And here we are again. It’s like a bad movie plot where I keep getting my hopes up and the girl keeps on leaving me and now I don’t trust the next girl.
 
I have no science whatsoever behind my statements, maybe it’s a short term thing, wish a volcano on a island in the middle of nowhere would shoot ash into the sky and help cool, I’m desperate. :)
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
I’m just worried after last year because we were all saying it’s only October save it for winter then it was November and models were showing cold two weeks out (always 2 weeks out) then by middle of December huge patter change (got cold for 2 days then back to warm). Christmas was warm, and we just kept on thinking it was coming. And here we are again. It’s like a bad movie plot where I keep getting my hopes up and the girl keeps on leaving me and now I don’t trust the next girl.
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Trust your senses ... :cool:
 
Sometimes It feels like I live in Florida again with these longer summers. At least in Florida the beach is close.
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
I’m just worried after last year because we were all saying it’s only October save it for winter then it was November and models were showing cold two weeks out (always 2 weeks out) then by middle of December huge patter change (got cold for 2 days then back to warm). Christmas was warm, and we just kept on thinking it was coming. And here we are again. It’s like a bad movie plot where I keep getting my hopes up and the girl keeps on leaving me and now I don’t trust the next girl.
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I have a possible solution. Just always assume it will be warm and snowless. Then you won't have to worry if it f it is going to be cold and snowy since you're never expecting it. There's no disappointment. If it turns out to get cold/snowy at times, which just about always happens at some point if you live far inland or not in FL, you'll be happy. It is all about expectations. Why expect cold and snowy anyway? Why torture yourself with unrealistic expectations, especially without El Nino?

Here I never expect snow, even a trace. I'm never disappointed.even though I love snow in the south.
 
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