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Pattern October Oscitance

GaWx said:
Three cold Euro DJF forecasts in a row! It is believable, especially due to the prospects of a weak el Nino. But I'll warn/remind folks that not all SE US forecasts out there are cold. I saw a forecast from the very respectable Reliant Wx, and it is slightly warmer than normal in both Dec and Jan and slightly colder than normal in Feb giving the SE a near normal DJF.
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Down here, forecasts be damned; what'll happen, happens (or, it is what it is) ... too many years (and tears) in either direction to go to the bank on a Sept/Oct deep south forecast ... remember the 1st week of Jan last year, for maybe a quick instance ...
 
May I (without being obstinate)?
Right now, we have about 15 models showing some sort of tropical something or other in the next 7 to 15 days, ranging from a hurricane to a lawn sprinkler, anywhere from my back yard to Brent's.
So, with winter being basically 2 months out there, enjoy the modeling and thoughts, but the groceries are not yet in the cart, much less in the check-out line at Publix, Ingles, Bi-Low ...
 
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Winter in October it is

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_52.png
 
18z GFS/FV3 are winners, hope it's not the doofus and the model that's supposed to be an upgrade off it teasing us again and it looks the same next week.
 
Goofus predicting Octsnowber means he’s back to his old self and out of his summer slumber. Let’s get this bad boy under D7.


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00z GFS has us (Carolinas) in the 30’s and 40’s for 48 consecutive hours from 252-300 :)

Time to do some weedeating around the fire pit
 
GFS almost has the average winter highs here lol beyond this coming week

I'll be in Chicago next weekend and it's looking quite cold...
 
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Brent said:
GFS almost has the average winter highs here lol beyond this coming week

I'll be in Chicago next weekend and it's looking quite cold...
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Well, the GFS has us going from lows in the low 70s on the 12th to lows in the low 40s on the 17th, only 5 days apart with a sharp drop around the 15th. Way above to way below. I'll welcome it if it verifies of course.
 
You guys know I am bullish on the upcoming winter and said back in Sept I didn't see a major pattern change until Oct 15th or later. That said, I am not buying a change of this magnitude quite yet and think (and hope) it is a more gradual "step down" process
 
ForsythSnow said:
Well, the GFS has us going from lows in the low 70s on the 12th to lows in the low 40s on the 17th, only 5 days apart with a sharp drop around the 15th. Way above to way below. I'll welcome it if it verifies of course.
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Bring it I'm sick and tired of killing wasp.

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