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Pattern October Oscitance

GaWx said:
I did a study a few years ago that suggested a moderate correlation between cold Novembers and cold winters. However, I think the correlation between cold Oct and cold winters is minuscule at best. I just don’t want us to stay warm through November so that cold winter chances won’t be lower vs where they’d be if there is instead a cold November.

Have you ever heard this line? “The wx in November the winter will remember”? I believe it to SOME extent due to my study. I’d rather change it to “the wx in November the winter MAY remember.”
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The thought is not Nov., but October ... but I concur with you 100% ... pardon me if I'm not clear ... just like to see things set in after 12/1 ... seems to "stick" around longer in our 40 acres ... :cool:
 
I would just like some average weather. We have been stuck under this ridge for about 6 weeks and counting. Dallas, TX is forecast mid 60s week after next and we may sniff some 70s if it ever verifies.
 
J.C. said:
I would just like some average weather. We have been stuck under this ridge for about 6 weeks and counting. Dallas, TX is forecast mid 60s week after next and we may sniff some 70s if it ever verifies.
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news had a high of 68 at the end of the day 10 earlier...

But it has before a couple weeks ago and it didn't verify... lol
 
18z FV3 was money from about 270’ish til the end of the run. Gonna be a lot of stuffy noses if that verifies
 
fv3p_asnow_us_41.png
This is incredible if all that snow happens
 
Per the 06z GFS, cool down for the upper south is now now inside 7 days, a little faster than previously shown. 180hr shows a nice pocket of cool air in Virginia, extending southward into NWNC and WNC.
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
Per the 06z GFS, cool down for the upper south is now now inside 7 days, a little faster than previously shown. 180hr shows a nice pocket of cool air in Virginia, extending southward into NWNC and WNC.
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Unfortunately the FV3 and the Euro not as enthusiastic, even though the FV3 does finally show the cool down it also looks to be short lived... steps in the right direction however, maybe
 
metwannabe said:
Unfortunately the FV3 and the Euro not as enthusiastic, even though the FV3 does finally show the cool down it also looks to be short lived... steps in the right direction however, maybe
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We have been kicking this can down the road for some time now. Atleast +10 departures in November should be 70/50's.

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Remembering back to our spring, we had fairly cold March-April and then we flipped straight to summer in May. That sucked.

marchapril.png May.png
 
metwannabe said:
Unfortunately the FV3 and the Euro not as enthusiastic, even though the FV3 does finally show the cool down it also looks to be short lived... steps in the right direction however, maybe
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The FV3 was close around the same time but not entirely there. You are right, baby steps. We are seeing improvements and each run is closer and closer and less kicking down the road. Hopefully they'll find some agreement soon.
 
Yeah it’s gonna be a “see it to believe it” kinda fall/winter. Seemingly anything outside of D7 is sketchy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
MichaelJ said:
I'll just leave this here, it is the latest winter outlook for the EURO

View attachment 6676

The previous one

ecmwf_seasonal_201809_z500a_DJF(4).png
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Three cold Euro DJF forecasts in a row! It is believable, especially due to the prospects of a weak el Nino. But I'll warn/remind folks that not all SE US forecasts out there are cold. I saw a forecast from the very respectable Reliant Wx, and it is slightly warmer than normal in both Dec and Jan and slightly colder than normal in Feb giving the SE a near normal DJF.
 
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