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Pattern October Oscitance

ForsythSnow said:
However the heat returns on the 6Z. Back to 80s and mid 60s for lows. If it was 70s and 50s it'll be a win. I think however that since the GFS is the only model not showing a tropical system, it's not cooling us down. Maybe if that storm comes up through the SE it'll cool us as it should have enough energy to remove the SER.
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I noticed a brief warmup but still rather seasonal around 348 and 372, maybe slightly above. Last frame shows cold creeping back again.

I wouldn't call it a train wreck by any stretch of the imagination.
 
There’s definitely legitimate light at the end of the tunnel. While there was some debate on here whether this current pattern was related to subseasonal tropical forcing, I think it’s not just a coincidence we may be stepping out of this regime when the EP convection (phase 8-1 MJO) finally shuts down around mid month and the SE ridge has been exceptionally persistent in concert with the active NE Pac forcing the past week or two. As forcing moves into the Indian Ocean thereafter, the door will open for troughing over the E US and a legitimate taste of fall around here and cooler than normal temperatures for once. This will sound crazy to many here but if we had this same forcing pattern we have now in mid-late winter, we’d be cold/stormy. Wavelengths and seasonal alterations in the location of wave sources from the tropics (I.e. convection) make all the difference.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There’s definitely legitimate light at the end of the tunnel. While there was some debate on here whether this current pattern was related to subseasonal tropical forcing, I think it’s not just a coincidence we may be stepping out of this regime when the EP convection (phase 8-1 MJO) finally shuts down around mid month and the SE ridge has been exceptionally persistent in concert with the active NE Pac forcing the past week or two. As forcing moves into the Indian Ocean thereafter, the door will open for troughing over the E US and a legitimate taste of fall around here and cooler than normal temperatures for once. This will sound crazy to many here but if we had this same forcing pattern we have now in mid-late winter, we’d be cold/stormy. Wavelengths and seasonal alterations in the location of wave sources from the tropics (I.e. convection) make all the difference.
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HM has been echoing this sentiment the past several weeks and going forward. I'm ready to get rid of the upper 80s-90s for a while.

 
SER awfully resilient thru 234 on this run granted the upper south getting closer to normal.


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HR 288 sitting pretty just don’t want to see this pattern of the cold getting pushed back a day or two each run but this is better than 06z


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We are looking at hour 384 GFS for normal highs, sad!!
 
Soon my friends very soon....
fv3p_asnow_us_32.png
 
I'm actually okay with the GFS past next Wednesday. It's above average temps for most of the run, but given that summer hasn't broken off, we're going to have to take baby steps to get where we want.

Although the temps being lower could be due to rain at the same time, I'm not totally certain.
 
SD said:
In think we start to cool down around d10 for a while but a return to warm isn't unlikely

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Hopefully we get a few days cool down and even if it returns to 5-8 AN after that our morning lows average in the mid/upper 40's by end of October. Mother nature can only be this warm for so long.
 
Brent said:
there's been a lot of early snow in Canada already

Kind of interesting

We'll probably skip fall and go straight to winter when it does flip :p
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Maybe November will be normal fall weather before the light switch is flipped. By December it could get real interesting if it follows the same trend as last year.
 
GaStorm said:
Maybe November will be normal fall weather before the light switch is flipped. By December it could get real interesting if it follows the same trend as last year.
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Every map I have seen says February will be the month for cold and Snow so it can stay warm as long as I get my .1 in February.
 
Just a question..When has cold October/November ever translated to a Cold/Snowy winter? Let Mother Nature do her thing. Enjoy the warm sunny skies while you still have them
 
pcbjr said:
Not many; '76 and '77 generally fit the picture, but otherwise ... :(
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I did a study a few years ago that suggested a moderate correlation between cold Novembers and cold winters. However, I think the correlation between cold Oct and cold winters is minuscule at best. I just don’t want us to stay warm through November so that cold winter chances won’t be lower vs where they’d be if there is instead a cold November.

Have you ever heard this line? “The wx in November the winter will remember”? I believe it to SOME extent due to my study. I’d rather change it to “the wx in November the winter MAY remember.”
 
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GaWx said:
I did a study a few years ago that suggested a moderate correlation between cold Novembers and cold winters. However, I think the correlation between cold Oct and cold winters is minuscule at best. I just don’t want us to stay warm through November so that cold winter chances won’t be lower vs where they’d be if there is instead a cold November.

Have you ever heard this line? “The wx in November the winter will remember.” I believe it to SOME extent due to my study. I’d rather change it to “the wx in November the winter MAY remember.”
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I’ve heard the number of fogs you get in August, will be the amount of snows you get in winter! It was so dry, I didn’t get a single fog event! So this old wives tale, will verify 100%!
 
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