Webber, I read your twitter stuff about the +iod. Will that hurt us bad despite a -QBO and possibly an east based niña? I saw 1951, 2005 and 2016 as only analogs for this configuration. Is there any reason to be optimistic this winter? Just curious
Webber, I read your twitter stuff about the +iod. Will that hurt us bad despite a -QBO and possibly an east based niña? I saw 1951, 2005 and 2016 as only analogs for this configuration. Is there any reason to be optimistic this winter? Just curious
Webber, do you think the Pacific jet will be more retracted this yr compared to last yr? I think that's important because it was so prevalent last winter.Redistribution of mass related to alterations in convective heating in response to a +IOD in a NINA background favors even more retraction of the North Pacific jet, and thus poleward displacement of the Aleutian ridge... This forcing directly interferes with the EQBO's tendency to suppress the anomalous Aleutian high but is currently superimposed onto the background state & inter annual persistence. Normally, this would favor a more robust SE US ridge, however, there's a peculiar, but insignificant-very insignificant anomalous + height anomaly center in/around Greenland which appears to mask this outcome in the differential composite between +IOD/cool neutral-NINA events and strong -IOD/NINAs.
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Here's the NDJFM SSTa differential for the two sets of years using ERSSTv4. Note the +IOD in the IO and stronger -PDO signature in the +IOD/-ENSO years...
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Webber, do you think the Pacific jet will be more retracted this yr compared to last yr? I think that's important because it was so prevalent last winter.
Of course I'm no expert like yourself, but I thought retracted meant to hold back or pull back. What was that jet that kept plowing into the Pacific nw or n California all of last winter then?The Pacific jet was not extensive at all last winter, it was very retracted as you would anticipate for a NINA as evidenced by the anomalous blocking high superimposed onto the climatological Aleutian Low center. A similar pattern would favor a stout SE US ridge and strong PV (+AO/NAO)
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Even when it's retracted the Pacific jet can easily reach the west coast of the US as a very formidable entity but against climatology it was weaker than usual and especially compared to the 2015-16 super NINO winterOf course I'm no expert like yourself, but I thought retracted meant to hold back or pull back. What was that jet that kept plowing into the Pacific nw or n California all of last winter then?
The difference between the 12Z GEFS and the colder 12Z EPS days 9-11 is largely a NW Canadian/Arctic high that the Euro/EPS bring down into the Midwest/Plains (with sub -20C 850s getting to far southern Canada) but which the GFS/GEFS keeps in Canada. Which is right? Any guesses? In between? This is unusual because more often than not the GEFS is colder.
I couldn't imagine what it would be like in both the Carolinas and GA if we didn't have Irma and Nate. We got the bulk of our rain from those two storms over a couple month period.Drought monitor update, getting worse in both Carolinas Piedmont areas!
Actually, "No". This is good until 12/15, after which ...I guess I'm the only one not disappointed in the current pattern
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I'm just sick of the only records we ever set being record highs lol
I can't disagree. Just mby specific I'm good. If I lived there I would be one unhappy personI'm just sick of the only records we ever set being record highs lol