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Pattern November Knock-Out

Webberweather53 said:
Wait what? The Euro actually looks significantly colder on the new run especially over the Carolinas...

Yesterday's 12z run

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Last night's 0z run
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I was talking about the highs for Saturday and Sunday. across GA and SC. It's colder for NC only. In addition, the precipitation times are different as are the directions they come in and amounts.
 
At least it looks to go down to near average late this week, which is all you can ask for when you have record highs this time of year.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I was talking about the highs for Saturday and Sunday. across GA and SC. It's colder for NC only. In addition, the precipitation times are different as are the directions they come in and amounts.
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Ah okay, it wasn't clear what areas and times the models were warmer. GA and SC are near the periphery of the CAD wedge and it's often very fickle/shallow equatorward of the base of the Appalachians, and NWP models are notorious for poorly estimating the extent and initial timing of precipitation in CAD/overunning events characterized by moist WSW-SW flow aloft and shallow, gentle isentropic lift over the CAD dome...
ecmwf_uv700_east3_28.png

The erosion of the CAD on this Euro run is directly attributable to the increased mid level cold air advection, which disrupts and weakens the low-mid level inversion by enticing more mixing hence eroding the CAD dome faster especially in SC and GA...
ecmwf_t850_dt_nc_28.png
 
The GFS has a much weaker high over southern Quebec and Ontario this run although it's arguable the 1045 hPa high it was showing on yesterday's 12z run was very unrealistic to begin with... Regardless, anything over 1030 hPa is still argues for a very formidable, classic CAD event this weekend and we're safely well above that figure on all NWP models... Not to mention it's also going to be the 2nd week of November, anything so much as a token snowflake, sleet pellet, or freezing drizzle is a big win this early on in the fall and winter...
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Webberweather53 said:
The GFS has a much weaker high over southern Quebec and Ontario this run although it's arguable the 1045 hPa high it was showing on yesterday's 12z run was very unrealistic to begin with... Regardless, anything over 1030 hPa is still argues for a very formidable, classic CAD event this weekend and we're safely well above that figure on all NWP models... Not to mention it's also going to be the 2nd week of November, anything so much as a token snowflake, sleet pellet, or freezing drizzle is a big win this early on in the fall and winter...
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TWC obviously going with warmer solution! Has my high 58 on Sunday!
 
12z GFS forecast lows for Saturday and Sunday morning. First hard freeze of the season possible for parts of NC, perhaps even upstate SC on Saturday morning if guidance trends a tick cooler...
gfs_t2min_nc_21.png

gfs_t2min_nc_24.png
 
CMC has a much stronger CAD wedge than currently shown on the GFS in spite of its weaker source region high in Quebec/southern Ontario... Temperatures are near-below freezing across the western and northwestern piedmont of NC as some of the initial overrunning precipitation encroaches, likely in the form of very light rain/freezing rain

cmc_t2m_nc_25.png
 
Via Tomer Burg, record low 850 hPa temps (for this time of the year) are currently being forecast by the GFS for New England this weekend, hence the CAD potential...
DN9vCrWWkAAxlQR.jpg-large.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Via Tomer Burg, record low 850 hPa temps (for this time of the year) are currently being forecast by the GFS for New England this weekend, hence the CAD potential...
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Yeah, I have to wonder what a 1038 - 1039 high and 850 temps up there reaching -15 to -25 across a lot of the area could do down this way. I remember just over a week ago the temps were originally forecast to be in the upper 40s and with clouds, barely hit 40. If we get a wedge in overnight and clouds roll in, then we can do the usual "forget the models" and expect a chilly day.
 
This is trying to go all - nao
85c854301a070117ef2a8be57c4cd988.jpg


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