Brent
Member
You can see the escape path develop over previous runs. Weaker Atlantic ridge, stronger trough.
View attachment 23531
Yeah it seems we are finally getting some consensus on a hard right and due east exit. Pretty big shift from previous camps so we will.see if it holds......I suspect it will with that ridge breaking down like that.
So the EPS has some mebers looping back? Sounds like the ridge builds back from the west strong and fast enough that it would get pulled back in on those models instead of going OTS.The trend of the 6Z EPS is to just about take off the table of a stall followed by left turn into N FL to SC and to bring in a new slight possibility for a new scenario due to further south trends: a loop back to the FL Straits area. The 0Z EPS started ramping up this chance and the 6Z has about 15% of its members with a S to SW loop back WAY south. Regardless, the heavy favorite for now remains missing the US altogether.
So the EPS has some mebers looping back? Sounds like the ridge builds back from the west strong and fast enough that it would get pulled back in on those models instead of going OTS.
So the EPS has some mebers looping back? Sounds like the ridge builds back from the west strong and fast enough that it would get pulled back in on those models instead of going OTS.
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 74.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Yeah, we now need to see if this is going to come in on the southern side of the envelope of possibilities while east of FL. That would bring in the risk it loops back to the SW toward far S FL/Straits. IF that slight chance scenario were to happen, then it could even become a Gulf storm. Other than this slight possibility, it should stay OTS.
12Z Euro was initialized pretty well (maybe far enough east). 12Z Euro hour 42 map strongly suggests that this run will be even further from FL and easily staying OTS. I think we'll be able to relax about this soon. Let's see.
am not and have not been looking for more rain, but frankly was willing to give up Saturday for a soaker if it meant in the LR that FS (@ForsythSnow) and his lake got a good dose ... oh well ...Confirmed
We might want to wait until it forms to go that far....12Z Euro was initialized pretty well (maybe far enough east). 12Z Euro hour 42 map strongly suggests that this run will be even further from FL and easily staying OTS. I think we'll be able to relax about this soon. Let's see.