pcbjr
Member
The cone sucks, I need rain lolActually it was stationary at 2:00 pm. Per the NHC.
Near the Bahamas.....quite uncanny.....
Also, the discussion is quite interesting...,
"In this advisory, the initial position is a point near
the middle of of the trough, but not quite as far east as the
convective area. The initial intensity remains 25 kt."
I wouldn't say we quite have a handle on this one yet.....that's quite vague...but the cone is pretty.
View attachment 23543
If this system stays weak and disorganize, could it push more west? Could we get a track that involves Florida and maybe eastern gulf back in play? I just want rain man, lol. I guess I'm wish castingI just checked a different source, Weathernerds, and it actually shows not just 5 but 7 of the 51 12Z EPS members (14%) with something going into the Gulf from NINE, itself. So, we can't ignore the chance. But still an overwhelming majority recurve safely OTS.
Not replying for Larry ...If this system stays weak and disorganize, could it push more west? Could we get a track that involves Florida and maybe eastern gulf back in play? I just want rain man, lol. I guess I'm wish casting
So surprised ... LOL ...No more potential cyclone
Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019
An Air Force plane extensively investigated the disturbance near the
Bahamas during the past several hours, and in the last portion of
the mission, the crew was able to locate a center of circulation,
although weak, near the convection. The center was a little bit
to the east of the previous estimates. Satellite images also
indicate that the cloud pattern has become a little better organized
and Dvorak estimates are T2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. On this basis, the disturbance has been classified as
a tropical depression with 25 kt winds.
Yup....I'm sure more surprises in store. My fear is that it spins up sooner and and doesn't follow the script.....as they usually do.So surprised ... LOL ...
Now a H possibility doing a loopy ...
If this system stays weak and disorganize, could it push more west? Could we get a track that involves Florida and maybe eastern gulf back in play? I just want rain man, lol. I guess I'm wish casting
Keep broadcasting the good news on LWBN (the Larry Weather Broadcast Network) ... nothin' fake there ...18Z GFS, ICON, Legacy all avoid US landfall of the center.