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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

GaWx said:
18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US
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At this point the models seem to have this locked in and there is really a very low chance this somehow threatens the SE with a landfall north of Florida...it would take some serious correction around the 72 hr mark with the trough and how deep it is or the system needs to really slow down or really really speed up to change the current modeling.

accu35 said:
Icon done good with this one
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It did well with Dorian after it gave up on a Florida hit, after it went to the stall and north turn it never wavered and had the track right to within 50 miles for days and days.
 
The pbp is great (and thanks much!), but don't forget, folks, there is not even a "storm" ... if there were or if there is, analysis might change just a tad ...
 
pcbjr said:
The pbp is great (and thanks much!), but don't forget, folks, there is not even a "storm" ... if there were or if there is, analysis might change just a tad ...
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Its officially is classified as TD9 so I would argue there is a storm.....I think the models are doing a pretty good job initializing on the correct center etc on the last several runs...
 
Ask the Bahamas if this is a storm. Ask the search and rescue teams still digging out bodies if this is a storm. Just because it’s not going to Florida doesn’t mean this Tropical Depression isn’t a storm. Sheesh.
 
Downeastnc said:
Its officially is classified as TD9 so I would argue there is a storm.....I think the models are doing a pretty good job initializing on the correct center etc on the last several runs...
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I appreciate the disagreement of opinion, and the adult way it is expressed ... ;)
 
The conus has been fortunate to not have the same hurricane conus hit pattern as last year. We will see how the next few weeks evolve.

CB712EC3-4861-4F47-8D81-5A68B65D9D79.gifC5517D0B-4D94-4AC5-BA9D-778E5864B027.gif
 
pcbjr said:
I appreciate the disagreement of opinion, and the adult way it is expressed ... ;)
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It is a interesting point of contention the whole TD vs TS thing, do we consider a TD a "storm"....I personally am not a fan of the TD status, I would rather see the PTC go right to TS.....however your point about intensity would also play a role especially short term IRT Florida especially....if it does not get stronger fast enough it could end up over Florida....
 
Jesus, (pardon me) ... was just thanking someone for being nice ... unlike what one might find elsewhere ... didn't mean to cause a cyclone ...
 
18z EPS...the members that hang around look to jump towards the coast at day 6. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯



18zEPS.gif
 
pcbjr said:
Jesus, (pardon me) ... was just thanking someone for being nice ... unlike what one might find elsewhere ... didn't mean to cause a cyclone ...
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I remember myself making some wild justification for a model too far in advance. You were very nice in listening to my argument....although I was wrong. :)
 
Humberto

Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 75.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

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Henry2326 said:
I remember myself making some wild justification for a model too far in advance. You were very nice in listening to my argument....although I was wrong. :)
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We aren't "wrong" ... nor were you ... ;) ... we just all misread a silly map or a teleconnection or a thing or two once in a while ... hell, I lead the error pack ... it's just so nice we've built a group here that doesn't jump all over somebody for giving their best and making a wrong call on occasion ... now, back to Phil thinking he has a clue ... o_O
 
This ICON run is slower though not much change in track......still turns east and heads for Bermuda just going slower in getting there...
 
I count 16 of the 51 (32%) 12Z EPS that actually come back and either hit or skim the US, which is higher than the 0Z. Although the good news is that the ones that come back to FL are mainly weak, the bad news is that the ones that hit SC/NC aren’t.
 
GaWx said:
I count 16 of the 51 (32%) 12Z EPS that actually come back and either hit or skim the US, which is higher than the 0Z. Although the good news is that the ones that come back to FL are mainly weak, the bad news is that the ones that hit SC/NC aren’t.
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Yeah if the system misses the trough in all likelihood it would be directed back. That's a tough scenario to really buy into though with the strong vorticity driving down the new England coast around 100 hours to the west of the system

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
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