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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

With the pattern the gfs is showing anything sitting offshore would be steered inland.


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GaWx said:
Yeah, the 10 or so EPS members that stall either offshore or just onshore and then make a hard left due to the very strong ridge to the north makes it more difficult than usual for the day 4+ period. The good news is that that's only 20% or so of the members that do this. Also, based on my many years of following these kind of alternative options that show up for some storms due to blocking ridges, when there is strong model disagreement the hard left option usually doesn't end up happening and the storm instead gains more latitude albeit sometimes slowly. However, that's just the usual and every storm is different. Also, E US ridging has been exceeding expectations, if anything. So, if that were to verify, you'd need to give that 20% more weight.
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Yeah this is spot on, homegrown's that go NE at some point almost never come back hard left....to me the bigger threat is for the east turn to be more gradual and slower not letting the center get out well east of Hatteras so that when it turns north it has to cross NC and move up the coast.....
 
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Based off the hurricane models, I can't draw to show it but I'd say the middle idea is off the coast by about 50 miles.
 
yeah I'm actually not looking for this one to organize, but unfortunately I think we might've seen enough that we're just doing mental exercises before the GFS suite caves to a stronger and east solution.

We'll see though. Longer it takes to become a TD, the more likely it becomes something that helps us with rain relief.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
yeah I'm actually not looking for this one to organize, but unfortunately I think we might've seen enough that we're just doing mental exercises before the GFS suite caves to a stronger and east solution.

We'll see though. Longer it takes to become a TD, the more likely it becomes something that helps us with rain relief.
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Its a battle between good and evil. Got that off of Hook the movie
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the coast of east-central Florida from Jupiter Inlet northward to the Volusia-Brevard County line.
 
Going back looking at the Nam, gfs and few other model runs, the low bounces around like crazy from 50 to at least 100 miles off. Like others have been saying, without a true center it very hard to tell where it's going or headed to. Seems to me, up the Florida straits would be most likely for now.
 
GFS legacy slowly catching on the other models now has a weak TS skirting SE coast then moving east away from land and deepening into a cane, might even be a threat if it gets blocked and moves NW at some point....
 
The new GFS is also getting closer to getting in on the party.

It was a good run on the chance of getting rain relief inland.
 
Gfs still west from other runs but trending east as well, plus a south jog back?
 
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