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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

@philklotzbach 1m1 minute ago More #Harvey has formed in the tropical Atlantic - the 8th named storm of 2017. The only other seasons with >=8 NS by 8/17 are 1936, 2005 & 2012
 
One this to watch is if the shear causes the centers to decouple or keeps them from stacking. We all have seen it many times where it happens in this fast flow and area. If it does, it could be game over.
 
Arcc said:
One this to watch is if the shear causes the centers to decouple or keeps them from stacking. We all have seen it many times where it happens in this fast flow and area. If it does, it could be game over.
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Shear is not a problem at this point.
 
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Hmmm, the King takes Harvey much further north into the GOM on a NNW heading toward trouble as of 192 hours!

Edit: It now looks like it is getting blocked and is making a left turn toward TX.
 
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Sharing Alan Huffman's map and still looks like most guidance takes it into Mexico but Northern parts and another shift like that paging Brent
fa13a455deb387292056b03a570373e6.jpg


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I can see what the Euro is showing. Stronger Harvey gets, hes gonna get tugged easier , feel trough next week.
 
NCSNOW said:
I can see what the Euro is showing. Stronger Harvey gets, hes gonna get tugged easier , feel trough next week.
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Yeah, it also hinges on the evolution of the ULL just south of Florida, if this is slower and phases with a shortwave currently over the Gulf of Alaska (which eventually dives into the Great Lakes states later next week) then that will open the door for Harvey to gain some latitude in the western Gulf of Mexico if it's in the vicinity and/or avoids interaction w/ Honduras and Nicaragua...
IHG13-11152017230.jpg
 
I wouldn't expect much intensification over the next 48 hours. That northerly shear is cranking at around 20kt
 
Storm5 said:
I wouldn't expect much intensification over the next 48 hours. That northerly shear is cranking at around 20kt
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yeah if you look at the radar recording (link I shared above) you can see the upper level rotation come across the southern islands and then the last couple of frames the llc NE of that, so it's not a stacked system due to that shear you mention
 
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